ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[cycloneye]

This Windsat pass from late this afternoon is what may have caused ATCF to put the center at 15.1N.

[Hurricane Alexis]

What's your gut telling you Blown Away??? You think we are going to get a visitor up here on the Treasure Coast? The pattern seems to favor curving it up towards us if it is down near Jamaica. Could get interesting next week for sure!!!
SFT

If 94L is classified before 65W he will not make it past 83W. If 94L goes north of Hispaniola it becomes a 50/50 threat between SFL/Carolinas. IMO, this system has the most potential to be a hurricane threat to Florida of any system in years. JMHO of course.

If it gets to Florida I think it will be a TS since it has to cross through Cuba.

[abajan]

This is the second evening in a row that I have heard the meteorologist on Local 10 News (Miami) talk about models all showing 94L continuing to move off to the east instead of west. What the ??

[Hurricaneman]

This is the second evening in a row that I have heard the meteorologist on Local 10 News (Miami) talk about all models showing 94L continuing to move off to the east instead of west. What the ??

Thats completely irresposible of that Met telling people its not coming to Miami, but its just his opinion on what will happen which could change in the coming days

[boca]

This is the second evening in a row that I have heard the meteorologist on Local 10 News (Miami) talk about models all showing 94L continuing to move off to the east instead of west. What the ??

You get local 10 down in Barbados?

[Gustywind]

19/2345 UTC 14.3N 39.8W T1.0/1.5 94L
19/1745 UTC 14.6N 38.2W T1.5/1.5 94L

[psyclone]

This is the second evening in a row that I have heard the meteorologist on Local 10 News (Miami) talk about all models showing 94L continuing to move off to the east instead of west. What the ??

Thats completely irresposible of that Met telling people its not coming to Miami, but its just his opinion on what will happen which could change in the coming days

I think Abajan is referring to the met being geographically challenged with regard to east vs west motion.

[ozonepete]

19/2345 UTC 14.3N 39.8W T1.0/1.5 94L
19/1745 UTC 14.6N 38.2W T1.5/1.5 94L

The center has clearly consolidated further south today. The center will move around a lot over the next day or so because the circulation envelope is so large. We'll just have to wait to see where it consolidates. Also, once the center does consolidate clearly it can intensify more rapidly. The big question is how much shear is still there ahead of it just before the islands. Shear forecasts are still so poor.

[cpdaman]

Think this may move wsw and get a bit further away from sal possibly allowing modest strengthening in 48 hours. I think its fast forward speed maybe its biggest issue by tuesday. Unless the models strengthen the tutt down to the mid levels I don't think this will have a good shot of going north of hispanola w out a good shredding

[AdvAutoBob]

I see NHC has another one behind it (only has a 10% chance of development at this time).

I'll do a little -removed- here and hope for a fish

[abajan]

This is the second evening in a row that I have heard the meteorologist on Local 10 News (Miami) talk about models all showing 94L continuing to move off to the east instead of west. What the ??

You get local 10 down in Barbados?

Yes, for quite some time now, as is probably the case in much of these islands. "A tropical update during the first 10 minutes of each half-hour."

[Weatherfreak000]

Convection is already on the increase, I think we may see a classification as early as tomorrow morning, if not by tomorrow night.

See S2K disclaimer, this is only my opinion.

[msbee]

This is the second evening in a row that I have heard the meteorologist on Local 10 News (Miami) talk about models all showing 94L continuing to move off to the east instead of west. What the ??

You get local 10 down in Barbados?

Yes, for quite some time now, as is probably the case in much of these islands. "A tropical update during the first 10 minutes of each half-hour."

We get it also in St. Maarten

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
20/0545 UTC 14.9N 42.1W TOO WEAK 94L
19/2345 UTC 14.3N 39.8W T1.0/1.5 94L

[brunota2003]

Surprised no one posted the TWO:

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT MON AUG 20 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
GORDON...LOCATED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN IN THE EASTERN
AZORES ISLANDS ABOUT 20 MILES NORTH OF SANTA MARIA ISLAND AND ABOUT
40 MILES SOUTHEAST OF SAO MIGUEL ISLAND.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION
ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE AND A LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED
ABOUT 1250 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THE LARGE DISTURBANCE MOVES WESTWARD
AT 20 TO 25 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH LOCATED
OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO HAVE CHANGED LITTLE DURING
THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. HOWEVER...SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO IF THE DISTURBANCE
REMAINS OFFSHORE. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF
DEVELOPMENT...HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE IN THE MEXICAN STATES OF
TAMAULIPAS AND VERACRUZ DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 150 MILES SOUTH OF THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.
SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE
DISTURBANCE MOVES WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[Gustywind]

Very interresting discussion from Rob Lightbown. Looks like Guadeloupe could be directly impacted . All the Leewards included PR and VI be on your guard.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
http://www.crownweather.com/?page_id=4557

Invest 94L Still Expected To Become Isaac Within The Next 24 To 36 Hours; Isaac To Be Expected To Impact The Leeward Islands On Wednesday & The Virgin Islands & Puerto Rico On Wednesday Night & Thursday

Monday, August 20, 2012 5:47 am

by Rob Lightbown

Invest 94L Located 1200 Miles East Of The Lesser Antilles:
Invest 94L is gradually becoming better organized and is located right around 1200 miles or so to the east of the Lesser Antilles. I do think that we will see this system ramp up once it nears and crosses 50 West Longitude where there is warmer ocean waters and a moister atmosphere. This should happen tonight and I think we will see 94L become a depression and then a storm sometime between this evening and midday Tuesday.

As for the latest forecast guidance, they have backed way off on significant intensification from a couple of days ago and now show a weaker storm impacting the Leeward Islands on Wednesday. The NAM model forecasts Isaac to be to track right across Antigua midday on Wednesday with the GFS model forecasting this system to cross Guadeloupe late Wednesday morning. The European model also seems to suggest a track across Guadeloupe during Wednesday.

So, my thinking is for a track right across the island of Guadeloupe around midday Wednesday as perhaps a 45 to 55 mph tropical storm.
Beyond Wednesday, the latest guidance forecasts a track just south of Puerto Rico later Wednesday night, then to the south of Hispaniola during Thursday. The latest GFS model guidance forecasts that this system may impact Jamaica on Friday, the Cayman Islands during Saturday and potentially the entire west coast of Florida from Sunday to Wednesday of next week. The European model forecasts that 94L/Isaac will affect Jamaica and the Cayman Islands on Saturday, western Cuba next Monday and central and south Florida next Tuesday into next Wednesday.

So, here are my additional thoughts:
I do think that Invest 94L will strengthen into Tropical Storm Isaac before it reaches the Leeward Islands. As I already mentioned, I think that this storm will track right over Guadeloupe as a 45 to 55 mph tropical storm around midday Wednesday with tropical storm conditions likely across much of the Leeward Islands during the day Wednesday.

Once Isaac to be is past the Leeward Islands, I think that it will track just south of Puerto Rico on Wednesday night and may bring tropical storm conditions to the southern half of Puerto Rico during Wednesday night. I do think that this system will come very close to and possibly go right over the island of Jamaica on Friday night as a moderately strong tropical storm and then affect the Cayman Islands with tropical storm conditions on Saturday.

Beyond the Cayman Islands, a track towards either the eastern Gulf of Mexico, the Florida Peninsula or the Bahamas seems possible as we head into early next week.

The main concern right now though is the Leeward Islands. Residents and vacationers in the Leeward Islands should be prepared for tropical storm conditions which are expected during the day Wednesday. Additionally, those of you in Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands should also be prepared for tropical storm conditions, which are expected during Wednesday night.

I am monitoring Invest 94L very closely and will continue to update you on the latest.

[Gustywind]

20/0545 UTC 14.9N 42.1W TOO WEAK 94L
19/2345 UTC 14.3N 39.8W T1.0/1.5 94L

[northjaxpro]

Thanks Gustywind for posting the thoughts of Rob Lightbown. I think in this case that he is pretty much on point with his forecast. I hope our neighbors down in the Caribbean are ready to put their preparations into action this week. Then, it is looking more probable that somewhere from the Eastern GOM, the Florida peninusula or Bahamas is going to be impacted by this system. Very interesting days ahead that's for sure.
_________________________

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast. They are just the opinion of this poster. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Gustywind]

From Accuweather.com


New Atlantic Tropical Depression May Take Shape

By Brian Edwards, Meteorologist

Aug 20, 2012; 5:50 AM ET
http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-n ... -new/70306

It is not just Hurricane Gordon roaming the Atlantic; a new tropical depression may take shape in the near future.

Hurricane Gordon, the strongest tropical system so far in the Atlantic Basin this year, is slamming the Azores with hurricane-force winds and heavy rain this morning.

As we continue to trek toward the all important peak of hurricane season which occurs on Sept. 10, the basin appears to be showing signs of remaining active at least for the next week or two.

A new tropical wave which came off Africa last Thursday continues to track through the central Atlantic in between the Cape Verde Islands and the Lesser Antilles.

The wave has become better organized through the weekend, a trend the AccuWeather.com Hurricane Center expects will continue with a new tropical depression taking shape in the next 24 hours or so.

If additional strengthening follows, the wave would acquire the name Tropical Storm Isaac.

The next question becomes, where would this feature go should it develop?

Most of the forecast models at this point take this feature westward to the Lesser Antilles through midweek. Whether or not it then takes a turn toward the Bahamas or continues through the Caribbean to Central America or the Gulf of Mexico remains to be seen.

The bottom line is that the tropics are active and our meteorologists expect them to remain quite active at least through the end of the month.

A cluster of showers and thunderstorms over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico further proves that point.

It is not out of the question that this cluster eventually organizes into a tropical depression in the upcoming days, in a fashion similar to how Tropical Storm Helene took shape.

Regardless of development, heavy rain accompanying this feature threatens to trigger flooding along the eastern coastline of mainland Mexico.

[Gustywind]

Thanks Gustywind for posting the thoughts of Rob Lightbown. I think in this case that he is pretty much on point with his forecast. I hope our neighbors down in the Caribbean are ready to put their preparations into action this week. Then, it is looking more probable that somewhere from the Eastern GOM, the Florida peninusula or Bahamas is going to be impacted by this system. Very interesting days ahead that's for sure.
_________________________

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast. They are just the opinion of this poster. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Thanks to you. Yeah, we continue to monitor 94L extremely carefuly as it treks west towards the Leewards. Lets wait and see what could happen during the next couple of hours.