ATL: ISAAC - Models

[Jagno]

Does he thinks it's heading to Galveston?

[Cyclenall]

So JB on twitter just compared the 500 MB chart of 1900 Galveston storm to present day chart and they look pretty darn similar.

got to love JB...lets bring up a storm that killed 10K people....

Well to be fair, Jeff Masters also brought that hurricane up a few days ago, it survived the worst possible passage through the islands of Hispaniola and Cuba (right over the highest mountains) and then bombed in the GOM to become the deadliest American disaster ever. Its not out of the realm of possibility for Issac to be similar meteorologicaly in the end to that storm.

[KimmieLa]

Does anyone have FB moments and want to press "like," on some of the posts here...? Lordy...

Yes, definitely. I have wanted to hit LIKE several times today. Enjoying the comments and learning so much.

[Ntxw]

Does he thinks it's heading to Galveston?

I don't believe he is. He was just pointing out that's the one case he found where the weather pattern shown by the GFS runs (usually doesn't support western/northern gulf hit) allows for it to happen. Ridging, and troughing were almost identical to those runs.

[chaser1]

So JB on twitter just compared the 500 MB chart of 1900 Galveston storm to present day chart and they look pretty darn similar.

Well to be fair, Jeff Masters also brought that hurricane up a few days ago, it survived the worst possible passage through the islands of Hispaniola and Cuba (right over the highest mountains) and then bombed in the GOM to become the deadliest American disaster ever. Its not out of the realm of possibility for Issac to be similar meteorologicaly in the end to that storm.

Well, to further clarify...., a few days ago when Jeff Masters did make reference to the 1900 Galveston storm, I also recall JB (on twitter) exaulting that he was sticking to his guns regarding Isaac's Florida East coast (or U.S. Atlantic Coastline) landfall.

[WilmingtonSandbar]

Does anyone have FB moments and want to press "like," on some of the posts here...? Lordy...

All the time!

[SapphireSea]

Well to be fair, Jeff Masters also brought that hurricane up a few days ago, it survived the worst possible passage through the islands of Hispaniola and Cuba (right over the highest mountains) and then bombed in the GOM to become the deadliest American disaster ever. Its not out of the realm of possibility for Issac to be similar meteorologicaly in the end to that storm.

Well, to further clarify...., a few days ago when Jeff Masters did make reference to the 1900 Galveston storm, I also recall JB (on twitter) exaulting that he was sticking to his guns regarding Isaac's Florida East coast (or U.S. Atlantic Coastline) landfall.

The Galveston Hurricane was about Catagory 1-2 by historic records. The deaths were caused simply by having little to no warning, and a passive local government at the time. I would sum it up to a simple-minded comment: It was 1900. This was at the very end of a hectic 100 years founding and creating the foundations of the country. I could go on, but I am dangerously close to leaving the atmosphere of planet topic

[WilmingtonSandbar]

Well to be fair, Jeff Masters also brought that hurricane up a few days ago, it survived the worst possible passage through the islands of Hispaniola and Cuba (right over the highest mountains) and then bombed in the GOM to become the deadliest American disaster ever. Its not out of the realm of possibility for Issac to be similar meteorologicaly in the end to that storm.

Well, to further clarify...., a few days ago when Jeff Masters did make reference to the 1900 Galveston storm, I also recall JB (on twitter) exaulting that he was sticking to his guns regarding Isaac's Florida East coast (or U.S. Atlantic Coastline) landfall.

The Galveston Hurricane was about Catagory 1-2 by historic records. The deaths were caused simply by having little to no warning, and a passive local government at the time. I would sum it up to a simple-minded comment: It was 1900. This was at the very end of a hectic 100 years founding and creating the foundations of the country. I could go on, but I am dangerously close to leaving the atmosphere of planet topic

Umm the deaths could also be attributed to the entire island being under 8 feet of water at it's highest point AND a population that had no idea the storm was coming until it started raining. Not just the no warning part. Also, it was more to do with Willis Moore, the Director of the National Weather Bureau, who didn't want to use the Cuban weather spotters for tropical cyclone observations than it was a passive local government.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5uz2GvDJHMg

But you are right, I digress.

[highpressuresystem]

Isaac Cline was the meteorologist on duty in Galveston which is a little eeire.

[SapphireSea]

Umm the deaths could also be attributed to the entire island being under 8 feet of water at it's highest point AND a population that had no idea the storm was coming until it started raining. Not just the no warning part. Also, it was more to do with Willis Moore, the Director of the National Weather Bureau, who didn't want to use the Cuban weather spotters for tropical cyclone observations than it was a passive local government.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5uz2GvDJHMg

That is informative, Thank You. Aside from the minute synoptic similarities I am not sure why we have been touching upon that particular storm. Either way. EURO in 2 hours hopefully with fresh data.

[DonWrk]

Isaac Cline was the meteorologist on duty in Galveston which is a little eeire.

nice point out there, very eerie. Trying to stay up for this euro run.

[Wx_Warrior]

Sorry if this was duplicated.



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[ROCK]

more members over the upper TX coast than there ever has been......

[GG]

more members over the upper TX coast than there ever has been......

because we were the last 2 major hits?

[TexasSam]

more members over the upper TX coast than there ever has been......

I'm still up watching it, I just don't trust that it's going to stay away from my house.

[Wx_Warrior]

Well, that may be from 18z run. It was 10pm, which was way before 0z started.

[ROCK]

more members over the upper TX coast than there ever has been......

because we were the last 2 major hits?

no, that is not a historical map but models ran from the latest GFS...

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Oh man, i think im gonna fill the three cars up in the morning. This could be a reality for the SE Tx coast. I personally dont think it will be, but it good be.

[TwisterFanatic]

Even further west with the ensembles.

[PTPatrick]

New HWRF out through 54 hours---good bit back eastt. Still has Houma landfall but moves it in more toward BR, Morgan city, northwest...less on the coast. 18z at same point was west of vermillion bay


http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... est060.gif


Edit: fixed a lot of errors...it's late, sue me