ATL: ISAAC - Models

[bella_may]

00z GFS comes out in about 50 minutes. correct?

[bonjourno]

While we're on the subject of quality models...


Yes, probably useless, but what the heck.

[bella_may]

While we're on the subject of quality models...


Yes, probably useless, but what the heck.

RAP? lol is that even a tropical model?

[AdamFirst]

00z GFS comes out in about 50 minutes. correct?

Sooner - sometime around 20 to 30 minutes

[SunnyThoughts]

Well this is good to know:

NWS NCEP CENTRAL OPERATIONS COLLEGE PARK MD
0258Z MON AUG 27 2012


THE 00Z GFS HAS STARTED ON-TIME...WITH 58 DROPSONDE AND 10 FLIGHT
LEVEL RECON OBS IN THE VICINITY OF TS ISAAC AVBL FOR INGEST.

[bonjourno]

While we're on the subject of quality models...
<image snip>
Yes, probably useless, but what the heck.

RAP? lol is that even a tropical model?

No clue really - just an amateur. I don't think so, though. It's the NCEP's "Rapid Refresh" model that replaced the RUC. Runs every hour, only out to 18 hours.

[Senobia]

I don't think anyone thinks it's going to Texas.

A *lot* of people think it's going to Texas. Right here on this board even. I think the earlier models have them a bit shell-shocked with their western swing. In direction, not the music - of course.

[chris1985]

Can't wait to see gfs...who's posting for us?

[Ntxw]

The ever so important initialization of 0z GFS

[Spookyb4]

Is the 0Z GFS run out?

[Senobia]

Don't know if this has been posted yet, but here:

[tolakram]

STOP THE CHATTING.

I am deleting posts. If this continues some you will face warnings or suspensions.

This is the models thread, discussion on non model topics needs to be moved to the discussion thread.

[HurrMark]

Let's see what this has to say...

[BigB0882]

Here we go! Last run I will watch today. Hopefully I don't wake up tomorrow to some huge shocks.

[HurricaneBrain]

GFS 12hr

[BigEasy]

The ever so important initialization of 0z GFS

I hope Ivanhater's guess about center relocation to the north is correct. It may be of benefit to SELA. May be a more north path will take place. You never know.

[Ntxw]

12hrs heading NW

[bzukajo]

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I trust my gut...(personal habit,) it has always been on point. N.O. is the last place this synoptic should occur, and my gut is telling me that Lake Pontchartrain may be at risk in a very bad way. The surge would come in at the worst angle, as far as I can tell. ( I am not a met, just a weather geek.) I really hope the repairs on the flood control infrastructure are up to par for this storm (if it surges on on it.)

[Sabanic]

As most of us know these storms can make small moves that are very significant in regards to direction & landfall. Ivan was headed straight for Mobile without stopping at "Go" and made a slight jog to the right just offshore that made all the difference in the world.

Everyone along the Gulf Coast should be prepared for the worst & hope for the best. The NHC once again in their discussion stated that there is an unusually high amount of uncertainty in track & landfall. It's anyone's guess at this point.

[BigEasy]

12hrs heading NW

http://i46.tinypic.com/2mxpcnr.gif

As always thanks for posting the latest model plots for us that do not have access.

*edited by southerngale to remove the IMG tags from quote