ATL: ISAAC - Models

[JPmia]

It looks a little further left/west when it heads toward FL keys.. 06z had it over south tip of peninsula.

[SFLcane]

12z GFS looks like a Donna type trek across Florida.

[SeminoleWind]

@ 162 its really getting its legs
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... SLP162.gif

[JPmia]

Actually, looks like a 2001 Debby rerun.. she died over Hispainola.. this one will have to survive that trek too

[petit_bois]

Looks like possible GOMer...

[Weatherboy1]

Interesting to note the very slow motion the GFS is suggesting for 94 once it gets to the NW Caribbean. That could be a boon for development (if it slows/stalls over water) or a big negative (if it gets tangled up with Haiti and/or spends hour after hour after hour over land in Cuba). Of course, that's presuming we even GET a TD out of this in the first place. Lots to keep an eye on, that's for sure!

[gatorcane]

174 hours, the saving grace in this run is that it spends a good amount of time over the islands. If this track is a little north or south so it avoids land interaction (which is quite possible given the model margin of error), I can see the GFS blowing this up into a major hurricane heading for the SE United States.

[Blown Away]

Can you imagine what this could be if it were to miss the big islands!!

[Blown Away]

Up the Florida spine ... likely a decent TS
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... cal180.gif

[SeminoleWind]

Can you imagine what this could be if it were to miss the big islands!!

Really hoping IF this comes to verify that Hispaniola or Cuba tears it apart.

[WeatherEmperor]

I am thinking that the GFS runs resemble 2006 Ernesto. If it weren't for Hispanola and Cuba, Ernesto 2006 could have been much worse for SFla. I think a similar login applies here. Land interaction will be critical for 94L's eventual strength if/when it nears SFla...as suggested by the GFS. If it manages to stay over water for a longer period of time perhaps it will be a stronger system. But if 94L interacts heavily with Hispanola and Cuba perhaps it will be a weaker system. Land interaction will be critical.

[Blown Away]

Near FL/Ga line ... north up the entire Florida spine ... big rain
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... cal204.gif

[cheezyWXguy]

Up the Florida spine ... likely a decent TS
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... cal180.gif

looks like its actually been stationary since hour 162, or close to it. It looks like with a building high to its N, its probably going to get shunted west.

EDIT: well, I stand corrected...

[SeminoleWind]

@ 204 hours if that were to verify Jacksonville area west into the big bend would see MAJOR flooding.

[gatorcane]

I am thinking that the GFS runs resemble 2006 Ernesto. If it weren't for Hispanola and Cuba, Ernesto 2006 could have been much worse for SFla. I think a similar login applies here. Land interaction will be critical for 94L's eventual strength if/when it nears SFla...as suggested by the GFS. If it manages to stay over water for a longer period of time perhaps it will be a stronger system. But if 94L interacts heavily with Hispanola and Cuba perhaps it will be a weaker system. Land interaction will be critical.

Here is an exerpt from 2006 Ernesto discussion. Models were calling it to be a major hurricane into Florida even though it went over Eastern Cuba. Just because it didn't end up that way for Ernesto certainly doesn't mean it cannot happen if the conditions are perfect:

THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS QUITE COMPLICATED DUE TO POSSIBLE
LAND INTERACTIONS WITH CUBA. IF ERNESTO EMERGES SOONER AND A LITTLE
FARTHER NORTH OFF THE COAST OF CUBA...THEN THE CYCLONE WILL HAVE
MORE TIME TO STRENGTHEN OVER VERY WARM SSTS OF 86-88F AND IN A VERY
FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW REGIME. THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL IS
FORECASTING NEAR-ZERO VERTICAL WIND SHEAR...JUST AS ERNESTO IS
APPROACHING THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA IN 48 HOURS. THESE
CONDITIONS WOULD FAVOR THE POSSIBILITY OF ERNESTO BECOMING A
CATEGORY 2 OR EVEN A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL
ALONG THE FLORIDA COAST.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2006/al ... .015.shtml?

[Steve H.]

I wouldn't focus on intensity just now, but the path trends. Indeed the wheels could come off like Debbie 2001 or if it slows down we could have an interesting outcome. 94L could still go anywhere from the Yucatan to spinning fish. Watch the trends - and watch to see if survives.

[WeatherEmperor]

I am thinking that the GFS runs resemble 2006 Ernesto. If it weren't for Hispanola and Cuba, Ernesto 2006 could have been much worse for SFla. I think a similar login applies here. Land interaction will be critical for 94L's eventual strength if/when it nears SFla...as suggested by the GFS. If it manages to stay over water for a longer period of time perhaps it will be a stronger system. But if 94L interacts heavily with Hispanola and Cuba perhaps it will be a weaker system. Land interaction will be critical.

Here is an exerpt from 2006 Ernesto discussion. Models were calling it to be a major hurricane into Florida even though it went over Eastern Cuba. Just because it didn't end up that way for Ernesto certainly doesn't mean it cannot happen if the conditions are perfect:

THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS QUITE COMPLICATED DUE TO POSSIBLE
LAND INTERACTIONS WITH CUBA. IF ERNESTO EMERGES SOONER AND A LITTLE
FARTHER NORTH OFF THE COAST OF CUBA...THEN THE CYCLONE WILL HAVE
MORE TIME TO STRENGTHEN OVER VERY WARM SSTS OF 86-88F AND IN A VERY
FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW REGIME. THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL IS
FORECASTING NEAR-ZERO VERTICAL WIND SHEAR...JUST AS ERNESTO IS
APPROACHING THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA IN 48 HOURS. THESE
CONDITIONS WOULD FAVOR THE POSSIBILITY OF ERNESTO BECOMING A
CATEGORY 2 OR EVEN A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL
ALONG THE FLORIDA COAST.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2006/al ... .015.shtml?

Yes Gatorcane. That is a very very good point! If 94L spends more time over water, the potential is there for it to become stronger. If you look at the 12Z GFS that is just coming out you can see that it moves very slowly towards SFla. Good analysis

[Patrick99]

Could be interesting. Storms like this, assuming they are headed toward Florida from the general vicinity of the greater Antilles....the difference between a weak TS and a strong hurricane is often just a matter of island-hopping. We've been really lucky with these over the past few decades.

[cycloneye]

12z CMC bombs it between Puerto Rico and Bermuda.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

[Blown Away]

12z dynamic models, shifting north with each run.