ATL: DEBBY - Post-Tropical

[tailgater]

The center is still just north of Yucatan, look at all the obs and plus on Cancun radar the showers are clearly moving from south to north, right off the coast in the channel. Sorry I don't know how to post these OBS.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Baton rouge/new Orleans office going with gfs model runs for now. Crazy that they don't even take into consideration other models pushing this west just south of us and slowly towards the upper to mid tx coast. Not even a drop of rain in our extended forecast.

[NDG]

Two things this morning, either 96L looks like crap with its COC still very broad, really suffering from westerly shear & dry air if the COC is where the area we were tracking yesterday or it does not look that bad if we have a new COC trying to get going closer to the Yucatan Channel, just NNE of Cancun.
Vis sat loop should give us a better idea.
Lets see if there is any truth to Cancun's NW wind report.

[OuterBanker]

Yep, looks like Tx to me too.

Only question will be wil it ruin your July 4th or Labor Day?

Boy, is this taking forever to get going.

[caneman]

2 obs so far. Development has been slow and so has movement. Starting to lean more towards to Western solution. Just wish it would move, going on a cruise on Sunday.

[ronjon]

06z GFS back to Fl Peninsula crossing again.

GFS

[Hurricane Alexis]

The spaghetti plot of all the models are mainly favoring it stallling in the gulf for quite some time, except a few which show a landfall in texas and others favor a landfall in florida(mainly the GFS)...but those few are reliable models


And the 06z GFS still latches on to the possibility of a Florida landfall at 96hrs

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appc ... mageSize=M

[NDG]

Buoy 42056 over the Yucatan is reporting a nice brisk inflow into the convection, this is not rain cooled air either. Notice that is now reporting a pressure down to 1005.7mb

Conditions at 42056 as of
(4:50 am CDT)

Wind Direction (WDIR): SSE ( 150 deg true )
Wind Speed (WSPD): 23.3 kts
Wind Gust (GST): 27.2 kts
Wave Height (WVHT): 5.9 ft
Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 6 sec
Average Period (APD): 4.9 sec
Mean Wave Direction (MWD): SE ( 133 deg true )
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.70 in
Air Temperature (ATMP): 82.9 °F
Water Temperature (WTMP): 82.9 °F
Combined plot of Wind Speed, Gust, and Air Pressure

[NDG]

Cancun's report of northerly winds continue.

Latest observations:

Code: Select all

METAR text:  MMUN 221044Z 34005KT 4SM RA BKN009CB BKN070 OVC200 22/22 A2972 RMK 60025 8/363 HZY INTMT RA 
Conditions at:  MMUN (CANCUN , MX) observed 1044 UTC 22 June 2012 
Temperature:  22.0°C (72°F) 
Dewpoint:  22.0°C (72°F) [RH = 100%] 
Pressure (altimeter):  29.72 inches Hg (1006.5 mb) 
Winds:  from the NNW (340 degrees) at 6 MPH (5 knots; 2.6 m/s) 
Visibility:  4 miles (6 km) 
Ceiling:  900 feet AGL 
Clouds:  broken clouds at 900 feet AGL
broken clouds at 7000 feet AGL
overcast cloud deck at 20000 feet AGL 
Weather:  RA  (rain) 

[tolakram]

June 22, 0z models, 96h (gfdl had no storm at 96h)

[caneman]

It seems to be initiating in that heave area of convection but I just don't see how that will be knocking on our door step (Beaches of Tampa Bay area) in just 48 hours.

[caneman]

That is approaching TD strength

[ronjon]

The 850 mb vorticity north of the Yucatan is dispaced from the 500 mb vorticity in the Yucatan channel. We'll need to see these two centers stack to get real development here. Question is, does a new low level center emerge today in the heavy convection in the channel or does this mid-level feature die out today or do the two eventually merge further north in the GOM?

[tolakram]

Looking at the models, we might not have a well defined center for another 24 - 48 hours.

[NDG]

That is approaching TD strength

If and only if a new COC is developing off the coast of Cancun near the Yucatan Channel, if the COC is still near the area we were tracking yesterday, it is nothing but a broad area of low pressure with the convection well revomed to the east.

[cycloneye]

The big question is if recon will go this afternoon with what is going on. An advantage is that is not very far from Keesler base.

[plasticup]

This system is huge, so I don't expect it to get itself together in a hurry. It could easily be 24-36 hours before it gains the definition of a TC.

[NDG]

The big question is if recon will go this afternoon with what is going on. An advantage is that is not very far from Keesler base.

Going by the last update of its best track, if indeed the COC is near 22.5N & 89.5W and if it continues through the day of having lack of deep convection in that area I doubt they will fly in there today. Not unless a new surface COC reforms closer to the deep convection on the Yucatan Channel.

[NDG]

Latest buoy report on the Yucatan Channel, that's what I call an inflow.
Look at the warm suppy air being drawn into those storms.

Conditions at 42056 as of
(5:50 am CDT)
1050 GMT on 06/22/2012:
Wind Direction (WDIR): SSE ( 150 deg true )
Wind Speed (WSPD): 23.3 kts
Wind Gust (GST): 29.1 kts
Wave Height (WVHT): 6.6 ft
Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 6 sec
Average Period (APD): 4.9 sec
Mean Wave Direction (MWD): SE ( 135 deg true )
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.70 in
Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -0.01 in ( Falling )
Air Temperature (ATMP): 83.3 °F
Water Temperature (WTMP): 83.1 °F
Combined plot of Wind Speed, Gust, and Air Pressure

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT FRI JUN 22 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM CHRIS...LOCATED ABOUT 435 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CAPE RACE
NEWFOUNDLAND.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED NEAR THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA REMAINS DISORGANIZED. HOWEVER...SURFACE PRESSURES
CONTINUE TO FALL ACROSS THE AREA...AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
APPEAR TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THIS SYSTEM BEGINS TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ALONG THE ENTIRE UNITED
STATES GULF COAST SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS DISTURBANCE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HEAVY RAINS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...WESTERN CUBA...AND SOUTHERN
FLORIDA THROUGH SATURDAY. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON...IF
NECESSARY.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN