EPAC: BUD - Post-Tropical

[Aric Dunn]

48 hours. which is a good 200 miles SW of the previous run.


nearing coast at daytona

[lebron23]

Further southwest...

[Aric Dunn]

57 hours. nearly on top of orlando and still moving wsw.

[Aric Dunn]

66 hours. about to emerge into the eastern gulf . turns west.

[Nimbus]

I was really hoping a short wave would take this out to the northeast. Florida can use the rain I suppose and there shouldn't be too much wind damage with just a minimal TS or depression.

[lebron23]

66 hours. about to emerge into the eastern gulf . turns west.

[Aric Dunn]

66 hours. about to emerge into the eastern gulf . turns west.

after that it drifts back east then stalls just off NE florida for so far a day. with no trough in sight

[gotoman38]

Teal 76 has exited the coast of Mexico - should be descending soon

URPN15 KNHC 251552
AF302 0202E BUD HDOB 25 20120525
154400 1735N 10134W 3926 07734 0418 -146 -418 252034 034 /// /// 03
154430 1735N 10137W 3925 07738 0420 -148 -418 252034 034 /// /// 03
154500 1735N 10139W 3926 07733 0419 -150 -417 250034 035 /// /// 03
154530 1735N 10141W 3926 07736 0420 -145 -416 254034 034 /// /// 03
154600 1734N 10144W 3926 07736 0420 -145 -416 254034 034 /// /// 03
154630 1734N 10146W 3926 07733 0419 -145 -416 252035 036 /// /// 03
154700 1734N 10148W 3926 07734 0419 -150 -415 250036 036 /// /// 03
154730 1733N 10151W 3926 07733 0419 -151 -415 249036 037 /// /// 03
154800 1733N 10153W 3926 07736 0419 -150 -415 248036 036 /// /// 03
154830 1733N 10155W 3926 07734 0418 -152 -416 249035 035 /// /// 03
154900 1732N 10158W 3926 07733 0418 -150 -416 248035 035 /// /// 03
154930 1732N 10200W 3927 07729 0417 -146 -416 247035 035 /// /// 03
155000 1732N 10202W 3926 07733 0418 -149 -416 245035 035 /// /// 03
155030 1731N 10205W 3926 07734 0418 -150 -416 245035 036 /// /// 03
155100 1731N 10207W 3926 07734 0418 -150 -416 244036 036 /// /// 03
155130 1731N 10209W 3926 07733 0417 -151 -416 245036 036 /// /// 03
155200 1730N 10212W 3926 07733 0417 -154 -362 247036 037 /// /// 03
155230 1730N 10214W 3925 07732 0416 -155 -342 246037 038 /// /// 03
155300 1730N 10217W 3926 07732 0415 -158 -298 246038 039 /// /// 03
155330 1729N 10219W 3926 07729 0414 -160 -257 246039 040 /// /// 03
$$

[gotoman38]

URPN15 KNHC 251602
AF302 0202E BUD HDOB 26 20120525
155400 1729N 10221W 3925 07729 0413 -162 -230 247041 041 /// /// 03
155430 1729N 10224W 3926 07726 0412 -165 -231 247041 041 /// /// 03
155500 1729N 10226W 3925 07729 0412 -169 -220 251043 044 /// /// 03
155530 1728N 10228W 3927 07723 0411 -170 -214 253043 043 /// /// 03
155600 1728N 10231W 3925 07728 0411 -170 -216 252043 044 /// /// 03
155630 1728N 10233W 3927 07723 0410 -167 -219 252042 042 /// /// 03
155700 1727N 10235W 3927 07723 0411 -170 -206 252040 041 /// /// 03
155730 1727N 10238W 3926 07725 0410 -170 -200 253040 040 /// /// 03
155800 1727N 10240W 3926 07725 0409 -167 -203 257039 040 /// /// 03
155830 1726N 10242W 3927 07722 0408 -161 -209 258040 040 /// /// 03
155900 1726N 10245W 3925 07727 0408 -164 -204 259040 040 /// /// 03
155930 1726N 10247W 3926 07721 0407 -164 -201 261040 040 /// /// 03
160000 1725N 10249W 3926 07722 0408 -169 -197 262040 041 /// /// 03
160030 1725N 10252W 3928 07718 0407 -170 -200 262039 039 /// /// 03
160100 1725N 10254W 3924 07727 0407 -170 -195 261038 039 /// /// 03
160130 1724N 10256W 3927 07721 0408 -169 -197 263036 037 /// /// 03
160200 1724N 10259W 3926 07722 0408 -165 -203 264035 036 /// /// 03
160230 1724N 10301W 3929 07716 0406 -169 -192 262036 037 /// /// 03
160300 1723N 10303W 3926 07722 0406 -170 -187 263036 037 /// /// 03
160330 1723N 10306W 3926 07720 0405 -170 -188 266035 037 /// /// 03
$$

[Aric Dunn]

I think there might a bit of a flooding problem if this were to happen.

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appc ... mageSize=M

[Aric Dunn]

Nogaps is quick on the draw...

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical

[gotoman38]

URPN15 KNHC 251612
AF302 0202E BUD HDOB 27 20120525
160400 1723N 10308W 3934 07710 0408 -168 -186 265038 038 /// /// 03
160430 1722N 10310W 3923 07731 0408 -169 -186 266038 038 /// /// 03
160500 1722N 10312W 3929 07717 0406 -165 -188 271037 038 /// /// 03
160530 1722N 10314W 3930 07716 0406 -164 -188 275037 038 /// /// 03
160600 1721N 10316W 3917 07739 0408 -165 -187 278037 037 /// /// 03
160630 1721N 10319W 3927 07721 0407 -160 -189 282035 037 /// /// 03
160700 1721N 10321W 3926 07723 0407 -164 -186 280038 039 /// /// 03
160730 1721N 10323W 3926 07723 0407 -162 -186 280038 038 /// /// 03
160800 1720N 10325W 3927 07722 0407 -163 -179 281039 040 /// /// 03
160830 1720N 10327W 3924 07727 0408 -161 -183 279037 038 /// /// 03
160900 1720N 10329W 3928 07720 0408 -158 -185 280037 038 /// /// 03
160930 1719N 10331W 3926 07723 0408 -156 -187 280035 036 /// /// 03
161000 1719N 10334W 3925 07728 0409 -152 -187 287032 032 /// /// 03
161030 1719N 10336W 3927 07724 0410 -153 -174 289033 033 /// /// 03
161100 1718N 10338W 3930 07721 0410 -152 -164 284035 036 /// /// 03
161130 1718N 10340W 3925 07728 0410 -154 -158 279033 034 /// /// 03
161200 1718N 10342W 3926 07726 0410 -155 -161 280038 041 /// /// 03
161230 1717N 10345W 3927 07720 0407 -153 -163 287043 044 /// /// 03
161300 1717N 10347W 3927 07718 0406 -153 -165 283043 043 /// /// 03
161330 1717N 10349W 3926 07722 0406 -157 -165 274040 041 /// /// 03
$$

Recon has yet to descend from cruising altitude (??)

[Aric Dunn]

GFS finally kicks it out after 144 hours.

[Hurricane Andrew]

How do you get east pacific sat in google earth from tropical atlantic?

[gotoman38]

URPN15 KNHC 251622
AF302 0202E BUD HDOB 28 20120525
161400 1717N 10351W 3925 07723 0406 -159 -162 280041 041 /// /// 03
161430 1716N 10353W 3927 07720 0405 -155 -159 282042 042 /// /// 03
161500 1716N 10355W 3926 07721 0404 -159 //// 281041 042 /// /// 05
161530 1715N 10357W 3921 07728 0405 -160 //// 286041 042 /// /// 05
161600 1713N 10357W 3933 07709 0406 -160 -161 284039 041 /// /// 03
161630 1710N 10357W 3924 07728 0409 -162 //// 280036 037 /// /// 05
161700 1708N 10355W 3927 07722 0408 -163 //// 274037 038 /// /// 05
161730 1707N 10353W 3923 07730 0409 -164 //// 275039 040 /// /// 05
161800 1709N 10351W 3929 07718 0409 -159 -164 275035 036 /// /// 03
161830 1711N 10350W 3926 07720 0406 -155 -161 278036 037 /// /// 03
161900 1713N 10351W 3929 07717 0406 -157 -161 278037 038 /// /// 03
161930 1714N 10353W 3926 07720 0406 -160 -162 285039 041 /// /// 03
162000 1716N 10355W 3933 07707 0406 -159 //// 287040 040 /// /// 05
162030 1717N 10356W 4067 07460 0398 -147 //// 281034 037 /// /// 05
162100 1717N 10358W 4240 07145 0380 -131 //// 273030 030 /// /// 05
162130 1716N 10400W 4435 06797 0356 -115 //// 275042 045 /// /// 05
162200 1714N 10401W 4603 06516 0343 -101 -112 258040 041 /// /// 03
162230 1712N 10359W 4771 06243 0330 -090 -095 245038 039 /// /// 03
162300 1710N 10358W 4965 05936 0316 -063 -095 240034 038 /// /// 03
162330 1708N 10356W 5213 05553 0295 -036 -120 237026 027 /// /// 03
$$

Flight is descending

[Aric Dunn]

GFS finally kicks it out after 144 hours.

well not out entirely .... takes it up the east coast to long island area. lol

[Cyclenall]

I had no idea recon was going to go in again, I thought yesterday was the first and only one but what a nice surprise this is. This could be hilarious (Bud's intensity).

[northjaxpro]

I think there might a bit of a flooding problem if this were to happen.

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appc ... mageSize=M

Well, you all know how badly we need the rain here, but should 94L/Beryl hang around these parts up until the middle of next week, we would be possibly looking at rain totals that could be comparable to what Fay bought us here back in 2008. I measured just over 14 inches total during Fay's trek across our area. We should get some impressive rain totals if Beryl hangs around and meanders next week.

[gotoman38]

URPN15 KNHC 251633
AF302 0202E BUD HDOB 29 20120525
162400 1707N 10354W 5464 05180 0273 -020 -185 215031 031 /// /// 03
162430 1705N 10352W 5718 04818 0114 -005 -031 197030 031 /// /// 03
162500 1704N 10350W 5975 04464 0112 +020 -023 199030 031 /// /// 03
162530 1706N 10348W 6242 04124 0108 +049 -026 201031 032 /// /// 03
162600 1708N 10348W 6520 03765 0104 +071 +018 200029 030 /// /// 03
162630 1710N 10349W 6783 03422 0091 +091 +036 201028 028 /// /// 03
162700 1712N 10351W 6952 03213 0078 +109 +040 196028 028 /// /// 03
162730 1713N 10352W 6975 03180 0072 +115 +042 200028 028 /// /// 03
162800 1715N 10354W 6965 03193 0069 +111 +040 201028 028 /// /// 03
162830 1716N 10355W 6971 03184 0073 +111 +042 204029 029 /// /// 03
162900 1717N 10356W 6966 03191 0070 +112 +041 203029 030 /// /// 03
162930 1719N 10358W 6966 03191 0065 +118 +037 197030 030 /// /// 03
163000 1720N 10359W 6967 03188 0066 +115 +038 200030 031 /// /// 03
163030 1721N 10401W 6969 03185 0064 +115 +037 201031 031 /// /// 03
163100 1723N 10402W 6970 03187 0071 +113 +039 203032 032 /// /// 03
163130 1724N 10403W 6963 03194 0075 +110 +037 202031 032 /// /// 03
163200 1725N 10405W 6967 03187 0074 +110 +038 203032 032 /// /// 03
163230 1727N 10406W 6979 03177 0069 +113 +036 205033 033 /// /// 03
163300 1728N 10407W 6963 03190 0070 +108 +044 206033 034 /// /// 03
163330 1729N 10409W 6969 03182 0057 +118 +035 203033 033 /// /// 03
$$

Recon alt. = 3000m - looks like a SE-NW first pass.

[gotoman38]

URPN15 KNHC 251642
AF302 0202E BUD HDOB 30 20120525
163400 1730N 10410W 6965 03187 0057 +118 +035 199032 032 /// /// 03
163430 1732N 10411W 6969 03182 0061 +115 +038 203032 033 /// /// 03
163500 1733N 10413W 6967 02902 9816 +116 +037 197032 032 /// /// 03
163530 1734N 10414W 6966 02817 9754 +113 +034 199033 033 /// /// 03
163600 1736N 10415W 6966 03139 0019 +105 +055 198034 034 /// /// 03
163630 1737N 10417W 6963 03172 0055 +104 +055 199034 036 /// /// 03
163700 1737N 10418W 6961 03182 0062 +103 +053 200034 035 /// /// 03
163730 1736N 10418W 6968 03177 0065 +106 +044 200036 038 /// /// 03
163800 1735N 10418W 6967 03181 0070 +106 +045 202036 037 /// /// 03
163830 1734N 10416W 6967 03182 0072 +105 +048 201035 036 /// /// 03
163900 1732N 10415W 6969 03184 0074 +105 +045 204035 036 /// /// 03
163930 1732N 10414W 6966 03190 0077 +104 +048 202035 035 /// /// 03
164000 1734N 10413W 6973 03181 0079 +103 +058 200034 034 /// /// 03
164030 1735N 10413W 6963 03191 0082 +102 +056 200033 033 /// /// 03
164100 1736N 10415W 6965 03189 0081 +100 +056 199032 033 /// /// 03
164130 1737N 10416W 6966 03188 0080 +101 +056 196032 033 /// /// 03
164200 1738N 10418W 6967 03187 0073 +108 +040 197035 036 /// /// 03
164230 1740N 10419W 6967 03185 0069 +110 +037 196035 036 /// /// 03
164300 1741N 10421W 6967 03183 0071 +105 +051 194034 034 /// /// 03
164330 1742N 10422W 6966 03185 0078 +100 +054 195033 033 /// /// 03
$$