ATL: ISAAC - Models

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
User avatar
Zeno8
Tropical Low
Tropical Low
Posts: 30
Joined: Thu Aug 02, 2012 12:25 pm

Re: Re:

#4941 Postby Zeno8 » Sun Aug 26, 2012 5:01 pm

Blinhart wrote:
Ntxw wrote:72hrs fully onshore between Lafayette and Lake Charles.

http://i45.tinypic.com/2rf4jmr.gif


Thats right over my house.


Should be nice when the eye goes over
0 likes   
Know The Cone!
Quote:
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
ROCK
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 9484
Age: 54
Joined: Tue Aug 17, 2004 7:30 am
Location: Kemah, Texas

Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#4942 Postby ROCK » Sun Aug 26, 2012 5:04 pm

18Z NOGAPS...hits LA right at the delta...

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical

same as the 12Z
0 likes   

User avatar
HurricaneBrain
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 520
Joined: Thu Jun 30, 2011 2:07 pm

#4943 Postby HurricaneBrain » Sun Aug 26, 2012 5:33 pm

Latest GFS much more reasonable than last run.
0 likes   

pwrdog
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 193
Joined: Fri Jan 26, 2007 5:58 am
Location: Texas

Re:

#4944 Postby pwrdog » Sun Aug 26, 2012 5:48 pm

HurricaneBrain wrote:Latest GFS much more reasonable than last run.

I don't see much difference... It still has it going pretty far west and eventually into East/SE Texas after scraping most of La coast and entering La near the central coast as maybe a large cat 1 or 2.. 982mb
0 likes   

User avatar
PTPatrick
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1831
Joined: Sat Jun 12, 2004 8:38 am

#4945 Postby PTPatrick » Sun Aug 26, 2012 6:03 pm

So far 18z hwrf not looking any different from 12z...935 mb drifting slow offshore toward Morgan city.
0 likes   

User avatar
Ntxw
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 22785
Joined: Wed Oct 21, 2009 6:34 pm
Location: DFW, Texas

#4946 Postby Ntxw » Sun Aug 26, 2012 6:04 pm

Latest RapidRefresh short term model guidance suggests he will be getting his act together tonight into tomorrow morning structurally (bands) with modest pressure drops in short periods of time.

Image

Image
0 likes   
The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

  Help support Storm2K!
Help Support Storm2K

wxwatcher1999
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 264
Joined: Sat Aug 04, 2012 10:19 am

#4947 Postby wxwatcher1999 » Sun Aug 26, 2012 6:05 pm

Does anyone think it will get close to the upper texas coast?
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
Zeno8
Tropical Low
Tropical Low
Posts: 30
Joined: Thu Aug 02, 2012 12:25 pm

Re:

#4948 Postby Zeno8 » Sun Aug 26, 2012 6:08 pm

wxwatcher1999 wrote:Does anyone think it will get close to the upper texas coast?


if you consider SW LA close.....yes
0 likes   
Know The Cone!
Quote:
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
PTPatrick
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1831
Joined: Sat Jun 12, 2004 8:38 am

#4949 Postby PTPatrick » Sun Aug 26, 2012 6:09 pm

18z hwrf initialized southeast of key west. Nt sure if center jumping north or not but wonder if that effects track.



18z track still skirts LA coast
0 likes   

Vandymit
Tropical Low
Tropical Low
Posts: 33
Joined: Wed Aug 11, 2004 12:02 pm

Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#4950 Postby Vandymit » Sun Aug 26, 2012 6:46 pm

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR
TROPICAL STORM ISAAC 09L
INITIAL TIME 18Z AUG 26

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.

FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)
0 23.7 81.6 295./14.9
6 23.9 82.6 281./ 9.7
12 24.7 83.9 302./14.1
18 25.6 85.2 305./14.6
24 26.1 86.2 299./10.6
30 26.8 86.9 313./ 9.7
36 27.4 88.3 293./13.7
42 27.9 89.2 297./ 8.8
48 28.3 89.9 302./ 7.9
54 28.6 90.6 292./ 6.1
60 28.8 91.1 286./ 5.4
66 29.3 91.6 322./ 6.3
72 29.5 92.0 304./ 4.6
78 29.9 92.4 313./ 4.9
84 30.4 93.0 307./ 7.2
90 31.2 93.5 326./ 9.0
96 32.0 94.2 319./10.2
102 33.0 94.6 340./10.8
108 34.1 95.2 330./11.7
114 35.4 95.3 357./13.3
120 36.7 95.2 1./13.1
126 37.9 94.8 22./12.5
0 likes   

stormreader

Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#4951 Postby stormreader » Sun Aug 26, 2012 6:55 pm

Image

Last look at Isaac as sun sets.
0 likes   

User avatar
PTrackerLA
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5277
Age: 41
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 8:40 pm
Location: Lafayette, LA

#4952 Postby PTrackerLA » Sun Aug 26, 2012 6:58 pm

What does intensity look like on 18z GFDL?
0 likes   

User avatar
TwisterFanatic
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1041
Joined: Mon Jun 28, 2010 12:43 pm
Location: Sallisaw, Oklahoma

Re:

#4953 Postby TwisterFanatic » Sun Aug 26, 2012 7:06 pm

PTrackerLA wrote:What does intensity look like on 18z GFDL?


959mb nearing the Louisiana coast.
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
TwisterFanatic
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1041
Joined: Mon Jun 28, 2010 12:43 pm
Location: Sallisaw, Oklahoma

#4954 Postby TwisterFanatic » Sun Aug 26, 2012 7:08 pm

Landfall in SW Louisiana. 949mb
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

wxwatcher1999
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 264
Joined: Sat Aug 04, 2012 10:19 am

Re:

#4955 Postby wxwatcher1999 » Sun Aug 26, 2012 7:09 pm

TwisterFanatic wrote:Landfall in SW Louisiana. 949mb



is that a shift to the west?
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Wx_Warrior
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2718
Joined: Thu Aug 03, 2006 3:58 pm
Location: Beaumont, TX

Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#4956 Postby Wx_Warrior » Sun Aug 26, 2012 7:14 pm

gfdl 18z

Image

Uploaded with ImageShack.us
0 likes   

nashrobertsx
Tropical Depression
Tropical Depression
Posts: 85
Joined: Fri Aug 15, 2008 3:55 pm

#4957 Postby nashrobertsx » Sun Aug 26, 2012 7:14 pm

Can someone post the next model run times please?
I know GFS 0Z will be like 10:30, Euro at 1am (Central)
0 likes   

User avatar
TwisterFanatic
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1041
Joined: Mon Jun 28, 2010 12:43 pm
Location: Sallisaw, Oklahoma

Re: Re:

#4958 Postby TwisterFanatic » Sun Aug 26, 2012 7:18 pm

wxwatcher1999 wrote:
TwisterFanatic wrote:Landfall in SW Louisiana. 949mb



is that a shift to the west?


Maybe just a little.
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
ROCK
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 9484
Age: 54
Joined: Tue Aug 17, 2004 7:30 am
Location: Kemah, Texas

Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#4959 Postby ROCK » Sun Aug 26, 2012 7:26 pm

Wx_Warrior wrote:gfdl 18z

Image

Uploaded with ImageShack.us




yep a little closer to you WX....more left on this run I think....have to check...
0 likes   

User avatar
ROCK
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 9484
Age: 54
Joined: Tue Aug 17, 2004 7:30 am
Location: Kemah, Texas

Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#4960 Postby ROCK » Sun Aug 26, 2012 7:28 pm

HWRF almost to the TX/LA border....crapola...
0 likes   


Return to “2012”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 7 guests