ATL: ISAAC - Models

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thetruesms
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#4841 Postby thetruesms » Sun Aug 26, 2012 2:08 pm

Well, since we're getting into a bit of a silly season between runs, here's another model to look (laugh?) at. It's my org's instance of the MM5, with one 00Z run daily. Just occurred to me to take a look at it. Despite not being tuned for tropical weather at all, it's surprisingly . . . not terrible. :lol:

Inner Nest (7 km grid spacing, 36 hours): http://floridaforestservice.com/fire_we ... 5-7km.html
Outer Nest (21 km grid spacing, 48 hours): http://floridaforestservice.com/fire_we ... -21km.html

Not really posted that seriously, but it's something to look at. At the end of the outer nest run, you can see that there's a weakness in the ridge at 500mb, but it's not readily apparent if there's enough to get Isaac through it. I kinda think that if it went longer, it would not drag him back.
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#4842 Postby rainstorm » Sun Aug 26, 2012 2:09 pm

what does the euro do with leslie and kirk, assuming they develop?
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#4843 Postby southerngale » Sun Aug 26, 2012 2:10 pm

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Re: Re:

#4844 Postby deltadog03 » Sun Aug 26, 2012 2:13 pm

jasons wrote:
deltadog03 wrote:Before we start a model war.....The euro picks it up, and gfs doesn't I still find it hard to believe the brick wall solution of the GFS with a weakness present. I know the weakness is not GREAT/STRONG, but it is enough to catch it somewhat. We shall see....I would favor a middle of the road track due to uncertainty.


What's so challenging about this is that the models are doing the complete opposite of what their tendencies are. Usually it's the GFS under doing the ridge and so on.

While a 'middle of the road' track may help the forecast verify numerically, in reality, I think Issac will be forced to go one way or the other.

Agreed.
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#4845 Postby TwisterFanatic » Sun Aug 26, 2012 2:17 pm

TVCN around NOLA?
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#4846 Postby nashrobertsx » Sun Aug 26, 2012 2:22 pm

The mid point between the GFS and Euro is Pass Christian, MS. But again, if it remains a large system, that exact LF point won't matter with Hurricane Force winds within 75- 100 miles and TS winds probably around 200-250 miles out. I would imagine that would be confined to the NE more than the West and NW, but I am sure they will develop some wind graphics after the next 5pm EDT OFFICIAL TRACK.

Yeah Not official at all disclaimer
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#4847 Postby Wx_Warrior » Sun Aug 26, 2012 2:26 pm

OT: State of emergency declared for Jefferson Parrish. NOLA Mayor Mitch Landrieu will hold press conf at 2:45p.
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#4848 Postby BigEasy » Sun Aug 26, 2012 2:37 pm

CDO is building pretty rapidly....reminds me of 7 years ago, almost to the date. Not going to be pretty somewhere. Folks, keep your fingers crossed something holds this thing down...a miracle.
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#4849 Postby wxwatcher1999 » Sun Aug 26, 2012 2:38 pm

The bamms have shifted west...are they worth looking at?
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Re:

#4850 Postby Hurricaneman » Sun Aug 26, 2012 2:40 pm

wxwatcher1999 wrote:The bamms have shifted west...are they worth looking at?


north of 20N they're not much good
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Re: Re:

#4851 Postby Senobia » Sun Aug 26, 2012 2:50 pm

Hurricaneman wrote:
wxwatcher1999 wrote:The bamms have shifted west...are they worth looking at?


north of 20N they're not much good


Then why are they used in forecasting storms? Surely they have some met'logical value, else the pros would discard them, right?
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Re: Re:

#4852 Postby bella_may » Sun Aug 26, 2012 2:51 pm

Senobia wrote:
Hurricaneman wrote:
wxwatcher1999 wrote:The bamms have shifted west...are they worth looking at?


north of 20N they're not much good


Then why are they used in forecasting storms? Surely they have some met'logical value, else the pros would discard them, right?

They pretty much do discard the bamms
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#4853 Postby wxwatcher1999 » Sun Aug 26, 2012 2:58 pm

Can someone explain why the cone is still to right when most models have trended left and when will they move it to the left?
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#4854 Postby ROCK » Sun Aug 26, 2012 2:58 pm

the EURO ensembles have shift a smidge west...now at the mouth of the Misip river...
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#4855 Postby drezee » Sun Aug 26, 2012 3:05 pm

ROCK wrote:the EURO ensembles have shift a smidge west...now at the mouth of the Misip river...

Link?
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#4856 Postby wxwatcher1999 » Sun Aug 26, 2012 3:07 pm

Rock I respect your opinion...do you think the euro will get over to sw la?
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#4857 Postby thatwhichisnt » Sun Aug 26, 2012 3:07 pm

link rock?
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#4858 Postby BigB0882 » Sun Aug 26, 2012 3:08 pm

I feel like the Euro is slowly giving in. I think the first chip that fell was it moving to the AL/FL line and then this go round it stuck to AL but also gave up the hard NE turn and saw the ridge building back in so it just went NNW. I think it is all baby steps and expect it to end up very near SELA by tomorrow nights 0z run.

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Last edited by BigB0882 on Sun Aug 26, 2012 3:08 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#4859 Postby ROCK » Sun Aug 26, 2012 3:08 pm

thatwhichisnt wrote:link rock?



a little bird told me...when I get the run I will pass on.... :lol:
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Re:

#4860 Postby ROCK » Sun Aug 26, 2012 3:10 pm

wxwatcher1999 wrote:Rock I respect your opinion...do you think the euro will get over to sw la?



dont know....any more jogs to the west here on out could get it close....But if I was in SWLA I would be on guard and watch the guidance closely...
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