ATL: ERNESTO - Post-Tropical

[brunota2003]

I don't have any good sat overlays for this area

[brunota2003]

Just past the 86 knots, they released a dropsonde (78 knots flight level at release point) and recorded surface winds of 61 knots.

[brunota2003]

Looks like they are going to set up for another NW pass, and then exit out through the area of max winds again.

Im wondering if theyll find proof of what you mention in the discussion thread about center reformation further north. The apparent current center seems to be shoving southward but remains on the periphery of convection. Recon also found a pressure increase despite increasing surface winds as well. This will likely be a very interesting center pass.

I don't know if they will or not (or if it is even occurring)...but that would be crazy in a system that just strengthened around 20 knots in the past 4 hours.

[brunota2003]

000
URNT15 KNHC 090447
AF306 1105A ERNESTO HDOB 42 20120809
043830 2013N 09338W 8433 01552 0084 +160 +160 080047 048 029 002 01
043900 2012N 09337W 8425 01562 0085 +160 +160 078045 047 031 002 01
043930 2011N 09336W 8430 01555 0084 +160 +160 078045 045 031 002 01
044000 2010N 09335W 8425 01557 //// +153 //// 075046 049 028 003 01
044030 2008N 09335W 8433 01554 0084 +160 +160 077042 044 029 002 01
044100 2007N 09334W 8429 01556 0084 +160 +160 077045 046 031 002 01
044130 2006N 09333W 8434 01552 0085 +160 +160 081047 049 033 001 01
044200 2004N 09332W 8429 01556 0083 +160 +160 082050 052 032 001 01
044230 2003N 09331W 8430 01556 0082 +160 +160 081048 052 031 002 01
044300 2002N 09331W 8425 01558 0082 +160 +160 082049 050 032 001 01
044330 2001N 09330W 8432 01549 0080 +160 +160 079052 054 033 003 01
044400 1959N 09329W 8430 01554 0079 +160 +160 076052 054 032 003 01
044430 1958N 09328W 8433 01547 0078 +160 +160 080051 052 033 003 01
044500 1957N 09327W 8429 01552 0076 +168 +165 080051 052 034 002 00
044530 1955N 09327W 8436 01545 0074 +171 +160 082054 055 034 001 00
044600 1954N 09326W 8432 01543 0078 +160 +160 079053 055 036 004 01
044630 1953N 09325W 8438 01543 0075 +168 +165 082052 053 039 001 00
044700 1952N 09324W 8429 01551 0076 +160 +160 082052 054 038 002 01
044730 1950N 09324W 8429 01551 0077 +160 +160 081056 058 040 002 01
044800 1949N 09323W 8422 01556 0074 +160 +160 083057 058 038 002 01
$$
;

[brunota2003]

[cheezyWXguy]

Looks like they are going to set up for another NW pass, and then exit out through the area of max winds again.

Im wondering if theyll find proof of what you mention in the discussion thread about center reformation further north. The apparent current center seems to be shoving southward but remains on the periphery of convection. Recon also found a pressure increase despite increasing surface winds as well. This will likely be a very interesting center pass.

I don't know if they will or not (or if it is even occurring)...but that would be crazy in a system that just strengthened around 20 knots in the past 4 hours.

thats true, but if there's any situation where it would seem possible, it seems like this one could be it. It seems unreasonable, but it does seem almost like there was a double windshift on the map. That northern one just doesnt look as complete yet. It might also explain why the strongest winds are so far removed from the center. I may just be grasping at straws here, and these discrepancies could probably just be chopped up to a disrupted core from land interaction, but something fishy does seem to be going on here.

[brunota2003]

This is an interesting sat image from NASA GHCC:



If that "hole" is where the center is (and it seems recon is heading there), then the next VDM may have eye information on it. They would have just entered the edge of the reds on the last obs I posted (#42).

And that image is only 20 minutes old!

[brunota2003]

Up to 72 knots, and pressure is only down to 1004 thus far...

000
URNT15 KNHC 090457
AF306 1105A ERNESTO HDOB 43 20120809
044830 1948N 09322W 8429 01547 0073 +166 +163 085061 062 036 002 00
044900 1947N 09321W 8427 01550 0071 +167 +161 086061 062 036 002 00
044930 1946N 09321W 8428 01546 0066 +171 +161 087060 061 037 002 00
045000 1944N 09320W 8429 01544 0066 +169 +163 088059 060 037 001 00
045030 1943N 09319W 8429 01545 0067 +165 +164 085059 060 038 002 00
045100 1942N 09318W 8429 01543 0067 +160 +160 083061 061 040 002 01
045130 1941N 09318W 8429 01541 0065 +160 +160 084061 062 042 002 01
045200 1940N 09317W 8433 01533 0062 +160 +160 083062 062 041 002 01
045230 1938N 09316W 8433 01535 0065 +160 +160 083063 064 040 003 01
045300 1937N 09316W 8431 01535 0060 +160 +160 085064 065 040 005 01
045330 1936N 09315W 8429 01533 0056 +167 +164 083068 070 041 005 00
045400 1935N 09314W 8430 01532 0053 +166 +163 085070 071 040 004 00
045430 1934N 09313W 8428 01528 0046 +170 +163 083067 070 043 002 00
045500 1933N 09313W 8432 01521 0041 +169 +166 082069 070 041 006 00
045530 1931N 09312W 8430 01518 0040 +160 +160 078070 071 042 007 01
045600 1930N 09311W 8430 01516 0036 +160 +160 075069 070 042 008 01
045630 1929N 09310W 8432 01511 0039 +160 +160 071067 068 046 008 01
045700 1928N 09310W 8422 01521 //// +146 //// 068068 072 047 012 01
045730 1926N 09309W 8430 01509 0040 +150 +150 072072 073 050 013 01
045800 1925N 09308W 8429 01510 0038 +150 +150 072072 072 052 014 01
$$
;

[JamesCaneTracker]

HUGE change from last pass through this direction! ALL 60 and 70 kt winds found!

[brunota2003]

[brunota2003]

Compared to the image above...this is roughly where the "eye" feature on the sat image above is, along with recon.

[brunota2003]

000
URNT15 KNHC 090507
AF306 1105A ERNESTO HDOB 44 20120809
045830 1924N 09307W 8429 01506 //// +143 //// 074071 073 054 013 01
045900 1923N 09307W 8432 01498 //// +140 //// 072076 078 053 013 01
045930 1922N 09306W 8429 01494 //// +140 //// 076080 081 054 014 01
050000 1920N 09305W 8423 01494 //// +141 //// 073077 080 056 012 01
050030 1919N 09305W 8434 01478 //// +144 //// 074076 077 056 012 01
050100 1917N 09305W 8435 01478 //// +152 //// 077081 084 054 010 01
050130 1916N 09305W 8420 01489 //// +146 //// 075079 085 057 010 01
050200 1914N 09305W 8423 01482 //// +148 //// 076077 079 057 010 01
050230 1912N 09305W 8433 01471 //// +154 //// 079076 078 053 009 01
050300 1910N 09305W 8433 01468 9984 +170 +170 078069 077 055 010 01
050330 1909N 09305W 8423 01478 9982 +170 +170 075062 068 053 009 01
050400 1907N 09305W 8427 01468 9979 +170 +170 072058 063 052 007 05
050430 1905N 09305W 8435 01460 9969 +180 +180 066046 055 050 006 01
050500 1904N 09304W 8428 01465 9963 +185 +182 061041 044 049 006 00
050530 1902N 09304W 8430 01460 9959 +187 +180 057038 040 045 004 00
050600 1901N 09303W 8430 01456 9954 +189 +185 056038 041 042 003 00
050630 1859N 09302W 8429 01457 9954 +189 +185 055030 035 038 003 00
050700 1858N 09301W 8431 01454 9954 +180 +180 055029 030 035 005 01
050730 1857N 09300W 8432 01452 9953 +188 +181 059026 027 030 005 00
050800 1855N 09259W 8428 01454 9950 +189 +178 060024 025 031 004 00
$$
;

[cheezyWXguy]

Well regardless, hes still strengthening, 85kt inbound in the NW quadrant, pressure down to 995.0 and still dropping, have not reached the center yet.

[brunota2003]

Ignore the marker...I am using it to track a feature I saw on sat images.

[brunota2003]

Extrapolated 994.2

000
URNT15 KNHC 090517
AF306 1105A ERNESTO HDOB 45 20120809
050830 1854N 09258W 8428 01452 9947 +189 +178 061022 023 029 004 00
050900 1853N 09257W 8432 01445 9945 +187 +183 063021 022 029 003 00
050930 1851N 09256W 8429 01446 9945 +180 +180 058017 020 025 006 01
051000 1850N 09255W 8429 01445 9947 +180 +180 050014 015 025 007 01
051030 1849N 09254W 8429 01446 9945 +180 +180 046010 014 023 006 01
051100 1848N 09253W 8429 01445 9946 +180 +180 024003 008 021 006 05
051130 1847N 09251W 8429 01445 9942 +180 +180 240005 009 018 007 01
051200 1847N 09251W 8429 01445 9943 +188 +186 228010 010 009 004 00
051230 1845N 09248W 8432 01446 9949 +184 +180 213012 014 014 002 00
051300 1844N 09246W 8426 01456 9951 +188 +178 221015 017 018 002 00
051330 1844N 09245W 8430 01455 9957 +183 +180 226020 021 017 003 03
051400 1845N 09243W 8430 01459 9962 +180 +180 208019 019 027 002 01
051430 1846N 09242W 8432 01457 9964 +180 +180 189021 022 029 002 01
051500 1848N 09241W 8428 01461 9965 +180 +180 174024 025 032 001 01
051530 1849N 09240W 8429 01462 9966 +170 +170 166026 027 031 002 01
051600 1851N 09239W 8431 01461 9967 +170 +170 155030 031 031 003 01
051630 1852N 09238W 8430 01460 9965 +170 +170 151033 034 032 002 01
051700 1854N 09237W 8428 01461 9967 +170 +170 150035 036 033 001 01
051730 1855N 09236W 8427 01465 9971 +170 +170 151039 040 038 005 01
051800 1857N 09235W 8425 01471 //// +166 //// 150042 044 037 006 01
$$
;

[brunota2003]

Much cleaner and stronger wind shift, further west, too.

[brunota2003]

[cheezyWXguy]

Much cleaner and stronger wind shift, further west, too.

yeah I see that. haha I think we misjudged on the center reformation, but there is some crazy stuff going on in this storm right now. Radar seems to show the center now jogging back wnw as the band wraps around the west and south side of the center.

[brunota2003]

First two VDMs:

266 heading, 31.4 miles in 1 hour and 40 minutes (roughly).

2nd VDM to "wind shift" is about 270 and 42.0 miles in 1 hour and 40 minutes (roughly).

Overall from 1st VDM to shift is 269 and 72.7 miles roughly.

[brunota2003]

000
URNT15 KNHC 090527
AF306 1105A ERNESTO HDOB 46 20120809
051830 1858N 09234W 8427 01468 9977 +170 +170 151042 043 039 005 01
051900 1900N 09233W 8425 01477 9982 +170 +170 145042 044 042 005 01
051930 1901N 09232W 8433 01471 9984 +170 +170 142045 046 043 005 01
052000 1903N 09231W 8434 01472 //// +153 //// 139043 045 048 008 01
052030 1904N 09230W 8429 01478 //// +151 //// 139052 053 053 012 01
052100 1906N 09229W 8429 01484 //// +151 //// 138055 056 054 010 01
052130 1907N 09228W 8424 01488 //// +153 //// 132060 067 050 009 01
052200 1908N 09227W 8426 01487 //// +144 //// 122071 073 050 010 01
052230 1910N 09226W 8444 01472 //// +147 //// 117063 071 051 025 05
052300 1911N 09225W 8428 01488 //// +137 //// 121083 086 055 015 01
052330 1912N 09225W 8420 01494 //// +143 //// 126082 085 055 011 01
052400 1913N 09224W 8430 01490 0015 +160 +160 123078 081 055 007 01
052430 1915N 09223W 8428 01496 //// +147 //// 120077 079 054 007 01
052500 1916N 09222W 8434 01494 0024 +160 +160 118075 077 054 006 01
052530 1917N 09221W 8429 01504 //// +146 //// 118072 074 053 010 01
052600 1918N 09220W 8428 01508 0034 +150 +150 117071 072 053 009 01
052630 1920N 09219W 8432 01505 0031 +160 +160 115069 070 051 008 01
052700 1921N 09219W 8429 01509 0039 +150 +150 114070 072 051 009 01
052730 1922N 09218W 8435 01504 //// +140 //// 115068 068 050 012 01
052800 1923N 09217W 8432 01512 0047 +150 +150 115066 067 050 015 01
$$
;