ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[jasons2k]

All, not every convective burst that pops near the center is a "hot tower". Let's calm the hype just a bit please. It reminds me of when people want to call every Cat 4 'annular' just because it sorta resembles it.

[jinftl]

WSVN in Miami just had Ed Rappaport (Deputy Director of NHC) on tv - he said so far the storm is behaving as forecast - there haven't been any unexpected wobbles or jumps that can sometimes be seen with storms emerging off of Cuba. He said the storm has a very large circulation and it is intact. He wasn't expecting intensification today - but now that the center is moving further offshore, he is expecting that this will become near or at Cat 1 intensity by the time it reaches the Keys.

He expects a prolonged period of inclement weather here in south florida even into Monday - it won't be windy all of the time, but he said there are squalls that recon has measured far to the east of the center with winds of 60 mph+ in gusts.

[otowntiger]

Check out the loops provided, and check the forecast track box at the top.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... oater.html

Flash Loop: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html

Well that's not exactly what I was asking for. If you are referring to the tiny scaled image at the top of this page there's no way to observe any detail. I've seen where people have done a 'mark up' where they show the current location of the center and overlay the NHC path showing how correct of off it may be.

[MidnightRain]

Deep convection finally coming back close to where the center is, tonight should be really significant.

[WeatherGuesser]

MiamiHerald.com - ‎24 minutes ago‎



BY MIAMI HERALD STAFF Miami-Dade, Broward and Monroe counties on Saturday opened a total of 13 shelters for residents of mobile home parks, unsafe structures and those who live in low-lying areas that are prone to flooding.

http://www.miamiherald.com/2012/08/25/2 ... oward.html

[BigEasy]

Note that Isaac is 375 miles ese of Key West...if he continues on a more or less a NW heading, that would seem to suggest a track that will be east of Key West (or near, since wobbles happen here and there)...or through the lower-middle-upper FL Keys

SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.7N 76.7W
ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM ENE OF CAMAGUEY CUBA
ABOUT 375 MI...605 KM ESE OF KEY WEST FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES

My thinking as well...a little stronger than predicted/a little more to the east(right)!

Off the coast and into hurricane alley with an intact core not the best news for south Floridians.

Shouldn't be all that much of a problem for south Floridians, other than some gusty winds of tropical force and lots of rain. Don't think there is enough time for Isaac to get his act together all that much prior to reaching there. Maybe minimal Cat 1 hurricane, but have experienced much worse.

[ozonepete]

so NHC said that "A COMBINATION OF LIGHT WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND LAND INTERACTION SHOULD AT LEAST LOW INTENSIFICATION FOR THE NEXT 12
HR."

and this looks very disorganized, IMO, not so sure it will in fact be a H by the keys like they had said before

Don't forget it wouldn't take much to get it from 60 mph to 75mph which will make it a cat 1. All factors that control intensification are trending positive now.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[TwisterFanatic]

There's expected to be a turn more to the WNW later tonight, if I am not mistaken.

[Cyclenall]

Small hot tower firing over Gitmo and moving north.

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/nexsat-bin/n ... essed=Full

Could be close enough to the LLC to heat the core.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/product ... 260015.jpg

So this and more (hot towers) could snap Isa's core back? I remember you said the same thing about Ernesto saying; "These hot towers could snap Ernie's core back". That quote has been stuck in my head for weeks .

All, not every convective burst that pops near the center is a "hot tower". Let's calm the hype just a bit please. It reminds me of when people want to call every Cat 4 'annular' just because it sorta resembles it.

That's what a hot tower is. Convective bursts that are tall compared to the surrounding convection are towers that help snap cores back. Rain rate TRMM imagery shows this.

[Radiogirltx]

My husband and I fell in live with Key West years ago. Try to visit there every year. Our beloved Conchs are on my mind tonight. Ill spend some time tomorrow monitoring the weather conditions on numerous webcams in KW and thru out the keys. Here's a link to dozens of streaming cams. http://www.floridakeyswebcams.tv

[artist]

[HarryPotter]

Convection is definitely picking up...and the core is re-establishing.

[jlauderdal]

WSVN in Miami just had Ed Rappaport (Deputy Director of NHC) on tv - he said so far the storm is behaving as forecast - there haven't been any unexpected wobbles or jumps that can sometimes be seen with storms emerging off of Cuba. He said the storm has a very large circulation and it is intact. He wasn't expecting intensification today - but now that the center is moving further offshore, he is expecting that this will become near or at Cat 1 intensity by the time it reaches the Keys.

He expects a prolonged period of inclement weather here in south florida even into Monday - it won't be windy all of the time, but he said there are squalls that recon has measured far to the east of the center with winds of 60 mph+ in gusts.

one feeder band can knock out power to a few hundred thousand people quickly, we have seen it before here..you dont need a major hurricane to have a lousy storm experience..wilma, irene, katrina, etc.

[alienstorm]

I think we will wake up to CAT 1 Hurricane tomorrow and the Keys are in the way. But I also feel that a CAT3 is possible for the Gulf Coast on Tuesday

[Macrocane]

The convection near the center has gotten a really interesting shape, looks like it's developing an eyewall fairly quick.

[ozonepete]

I think we will wake up to CAT 1 Hurricane tomorrow and the Keys are in the way. But I also feel that a CAT3 is possible for the Gulf Coast on Tuesday

Alot of us here think that now. Conditions are very favorable for that scenario now.




Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[weatherSnoop]

Hi everyone! I've lurked here for a while, joined today! I am from Louisiana, just outside of New Orleans. I see some of the spaghetti models shifted back over to us! I hope on the next run this changes!

Nice to "meet" everyone!

Welcome Maven

[Ixolib]

Anybody know the conditions that existed with Katrina when she was in a similar position, and how (or if) similar conditions will exist for Issac? Better conditions for organization? Worse?

[OzCycloneChaserTrav]

I thought Katrina was weakening as it made landfall in the gulf?
Isaac will likely be strengthening

[MiamiensisWx]

Actually, the appearance and synoptic pattern...at least in terms of the lee cyclone and pressure gradient...are a bit similar to those on September 1-2, 1935.