ATL: ERNESTO - Post-Tropical

[Extratropical94]

Guess this means we'll get more readings before landfall correct?


ERNESTO HAS NOW BECOME A WELL-ORGANIZED TROPICAL CYCLONE WITH
DISTINCT CONVECTIVE BANDING FEATURES OVER ALL QUADRANTS OF THE
CIRCULATION...AND WELL-DEFINED CIRRUS-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 70 KT PENDING THE ARRIVAL OF ANOTHER AIR FORCE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT...SCHEDULED FOR A 0000 UTC FIX

Yup, it looks like we'll see a plane investigating Ernie at his strongest point so far.

[Dave]

There's another flight coming up tonight...picked this off of the latest advisory @ 4 pm from NHC:

AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT...SCHEDULED FOR A 0000 UTC FIX

[Kingarabian]

4 hours ish?

[TexasF6]

What are we to make of the ULL flattening and stalling/slowing a bit? Will that have any effect on Ernesto's motion?

[Dave]

4 hours ish?

0000 UTC = 7 pm edt for the center fix...so take off will come in an hour or so.

[tolakram]

GE view with forecast and current image overlay.

[cheezyWXguy]

tolakram, that loop you posted is amazing. Recon is gonna find a storm quite a bit stronger than 70kt if it keeps this up.

[Dave]

000
URNT15 KNHC 072056
AF306 1105A ERNESTO HDOB 01 20120807
204800 3024N 08855W 0131 00025 0153 +333 +288 360000 000 /// /// 03
204830 3024N 08855W 0131 00019 0161 +330 +288 360000 000 /// /// 03
204900 3024N 08855W 0131 00042 0179 +330 +288 360000 000 /// /// 03
204930 3024N 08855W 0127 00009 0153 +328 +288 360000 000 /// /// 03
205000 3024N 08855W 0130 00006 0137 +311 +286 360000 000 /// /// 03
205030 3024N 08855W 0131 00003 0136 +299 +284 360000 000 /// /// 03
205100 3024N 08855W 0131 00005 0137 +290 +281 360000 000 /// /// 03
205130 3024N 08855W 0131 00005 0137 +283 +279 360000 000 /// /// 03
205200 3024N 08855W 0131 00003 0136 +284 +277 360000 000 /// /// 03
205230 3025N 08855W 0131 00003 0137 +291 +276 360000 000 /// /// 03
205300 3025N 08855W 0132 00005 0138 +298 +274 360000 000 /// /// 03
205330 3025N 08855W 0133 00005 0138 +298 +273 360000 000 /// /// 03
205400 3025N 08855W 0131 00006 0136 +298 +271 360000 000 /// /// 03
205430 3025N 08855W 0131 00005 0138 +284 +269 360000 000 /// /// 03
205500 3025N 08855W 0132 00006 0140 +283 +267 360000 000 /// /// 03
205530 3025N 08855W 0128 00006 0138 +280 +265 360000 000 /// /// 03
205600 3025N 08855W 0128 00005 0137 +295 +263 360000 000 /// /// 03
205630 3025N 08855W 0133 00005 0139 +293 +260 360000 000 /// /// 03
205700 3025N 08855W 0134 00006 0141 +291 +257 360000 000 /// /// 03
205730 3025N 08855W 0134 00006 0141 +291 +255 360000 000 /// /// 03
$$
;


AF 306 ON RUNWAY....

[CrazyC83]

I would not be surprised at all to have Recon find a Category 2 storm.

[Dave]

AF 306 IS ON THE RUNWAY NOW...I've got it for a little while but need someone on graphics later on.

[ozonepete]

What are we to make of the ULL flattening and stalling/slowing a bit? Will that have any effect on Ernesto's motion?

I'm sure the NHC has taken it into account since the models have a pretty good handle on the upper flow assuming a cat 1 or low cat 2. I personally think it will go into the Yucatan a bit further north than the official track but given the NHC's track record on track (heh heh), especially as it approaches landfall, that the U.S. is out of play and this will go into Mexico on its second landfall well south of the U.S. border. The NHC would have to be way off for this to go a lot further north and it just seems highly unlikely.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Kingarabian]

AF 306 IS ON THE RUNWAY NOW...I've got it for a little while but need someone on graphics later on.

I'll get that as soon as GE updates with AF306.

[ROCK]

I would not be surprised at all to have Recon find a Category 2 storm.

I agree....I also think a sub 980MB storm.....guessing 978MB....or lower...

[tolakram]

Got data, got images ....

so who's making the airplane noises?

[Dave]

000
URNT15 KNHC 072106
AF306 1105A ERNESTO HDOB 02 20120807
205800 3025N 08855W 0134 00007 0142 +290 +254 360000 000 /// /// 03
205830 3025N 08855W 0133 00008 0144 +290 +253 360000 000 /// /// 03
205900 3025N 08855W 0133 00013 0148 +290 +252 360000 000 /// /// 03
205930 3025N 08855W 0133 00012 0147 +290 +251 360000 000 /// /// 03
210000 3025N 08855W 0133 00007 0143 +290 +250 360000 000 /// /// 03
210030 3025N 08855W 0133 00005 0141 +290 +249 360000 000 /// /// 03
210100 3025N 08855W 0133 00007 0142 +289 +249 360000 000 /// /// 03
210130 3025N 08855W 0133 00007 0142 +290 +248 360000 000 /// /// 03
210200 3025N 08855W 0133 00008 0143 +290 +248 360000 000 /// /// 03
210230 3025N 08855W 0133 00007 0142 +290 +248 360000 000 /// /// 03
210300 3025N 08855W 0133 00006 0141 +291 +247 360000 000 /// /// 03
210330 3025N 08855W 0133 00005 0140 +295 +247 360000 000 /// /// 03
210400 3025N 08855W 0131 00006 0139 +292 +248 360000 000 /// /// 03
210430 3025N 08855W 0133 00005 0138 +293 +247 360000 000 /// /// 03
210500 3025N 08855W 0131 00003 0137 +290 +245 360000 000 /// /// 03
210530 3025N 08855W 0131 00003 0136 +290 +245 360000 000 /// /// 03
210600 3025N 08855W 0131 00006 0137 +290 +244 360000 000 /// /// 03
210630 3025N 08855W 0131 00005 0138 +288 +243 360000 000 /// /// 03
210700 3025N 08855W 0132 00003 0137 +288 +243 360000 000 /// /// 03
210730 3025N 08855W 0131 00005 0138 +290 +242 360000 000 /// /// 03
$$
;

Mission Cancelled.

[Dave]

Got data, got images ....

so who's making the airplane noises?

We're still revin' the engines up on the runway....I'm good to go..got my 10 minute egg timer in gear.

[Kingarabian]

Got data, got images ....

so who's making the airplane noises?

Alright, I could do images/data whenever needed.

[tolakram]

Got data, got images ....

so who's making the airplane noises?

Alright, I could do images/data whenever needed.

No no, you are good. I was making a joke. Apparently a bad joke. You all carry on.

[Dave]

Got data, got images ....

so who's making the airplane noises?

Alright, I could do images/data whenever needed.

He's joking with ya. lol

[SunnyThoughts]