VORTEX DATA MESSAGE EP022012
A. 24/22:10:10Z
B. 16 deg 31 min N
106 deg 17 min W
C. 700 mb 2790 m
D. 88 kt
E. 252 deg 10 nm
F. 360 deg 79 kt
G. 261 deg 13 nm
H. 964 mb
I. 10 C / 3056 m
J. 16 C / 3031 m
K. 11 C / NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. C24
N. 12345 / 07
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF308 0102E BUD OB 22
MAX OUTBOUND AND MAX FL WIND 120 KT E QUAD 22:15:00Z
MAX FL TEMP 17 C 246 / 8 NM FROM FL CNTR
EPAC: BUD - Post-Tropical
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cycloneye
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Re: EPAC: BUD - Hurricane
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Another dropsonde
Product: Air Force Temp Drop (Dropsonde) Message (UZPN13 KNHC)
Transmitted: 24th day of the month at 22:35Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 308)
Storm Number: 02
Storm Name: Bud (flight in the Northeast Pacific basin)
Mission Number: 1
Observation Number: 25
Part A...
Date: Near the closest hour of 22Z on the 24th day of the month
Highest Mandatory Level For Which Wind Was Reported: 700mb
Coordinates: 16.6N 106.0W
Map this location: http://www.tropicalatlantic.com/recon/p ... 6&lon=-106
Location: 285 miles (458 km) to the S (190°) from Puerto Vallarta, Jalisco, México.
Level: Geo. Height / Air Temp. / Dew Point / Wind Direction / Wind Speed
976mb (28.82 inHg): Sea Level (Surface) / 25.4°C (77.7°F) / 25.4°C (77.7°F) / 105° (from the ESE) / 74 knots (85 mph)
1000mb: -217m (-712 ft) / This level does not exist in this area of the storm above the surface level.
925mb: 470m (1,542 ft) / 22.2°C (72.0°F) / 22.2°C (72.0°F) / 130° (from the SE) / 110 knots (127 mph)
850mb: 1,206m (3,957 ft) / 19.4°C (66.9°F) / 19.3°C (66.7°F) / 145° (from the SE) / 106 knots (122 mph)
700mb: 2,863m (9,393 ft) / 9.4°C (48.9°F) / 9.4°C (48.9°F) / 170° (from the S) / 112 knots (129 mph)
Information About Radiosonde:
- Launch Time: 22:15Z
Remarks Section...
Dropsonde Location: Dropped in maximum wind band.
Splash Location: 16.67N 106.08W
Splash Time: 22:19Z
Release Location: 16.56N 106.01W
Map this location: http://www.tropicalatlantic.com/recon/p ... on=-106.01
Release Time: 22:15:12Z
Splash Location: 16.67N 106.08W
Map this location: http://www.tropicalatlantic.com/recon/p ... on=-106.08
Splash Time: 22:19:31Z
Mean Boundary Level Wind (mean wind in the lowest 500 geopotential meters):
- Wind: 120° (from the ESE) at 104 knots (120 mph)
Deep Layer Mean Wind (average wind over the depth):
- Wind: 150° (from the SSE) at 104 knots (120 mph)
- Depth of Sounding: From 697mb to 976mb
Average Wind Over Lowest Available 150 geopotential meters (gpm):
- Lowest 150m: 159 gpm - 9 gpm (522 geo. feet - 30 geo. feet)
- Wind: 115° (from the ESE) at 97 knots (112 mph)
Part B: Data For Significant Levels...
Significant Temperature And Relative Humidity Levels...
Level: Air Temp. / Dew Point
976mb (Surface): 25.4°C (77.7°F) / 25.4°C (77.7°F)
850mb: 19.4°C (66.9°F) / 19.3°C (66.7°F)
835mb: 18.8°C (65.8°F) / 18.3°C (64.9°F)
822mb: 20.2°C (68.4°F) / 17.5°C (63.5°F)
770mb: 15.4°C (59.7°F) / 15.2°C (59.4°F)
709mb: 12.2°C (54.0°F) / 12.1°C (53.8°F)
697mb: 8.4°C (47.1°F) / 8.4°C (47.1°F)
Significant Wind Levels...
Level: Wind Direction / Wind Speed
976mb (Surface): 105° (from the ESE) / 74 knots (85 mph)
975mb: 105° (from the ESE) / 76 knots (87 mph)
972mb: 105° (from the ESE) / 91 knots (105 mph)
967mb: 115° (from the ESE) / 102 knots (117 mph)
958mb: 115° (from the ESE) / 100 knots (115 mph)
953mb: 115° (from the ESE) / 111 knots (128 mph)
948mb: 120° (from the ESE) / 107 knots (123 mph)
943mb: 120° (from the ESE) / 117 knots (135 mph)
933mb: 130° (from the SE) / 106 knots (122 mph)
912mb: 140° (from the SE) / 115 knots (132 mph)
898mb: 140° (from the SE) / 116 knots (133 mph)
886mb: 145° (from the SE) / 111 knots (128 mph)
878mb: 140° (from the SE) / 113 knots (130 mph)
872mb: 145° (from the SE) / 106 knots (122 mph)
850mb: 145° (from the SE) / 106 knots (122 mph)
697mb: 170° (from the S) / 112 knots (129 mph)
---
Original Undecoded Observation:
UZPN13 KNHC 242235
XXAA 74227 99166 71060 04766 99976 25400 10574 00717 ///// /////
92470 22200 13110 85206 19401 14606 70863 09400 17112 88999 77999
31313 09608 82215
61616 AF308 0102E BUD OB 25
62626 MXWNDBND SPL 1667N10608W 2219 MBL WND 12104 AEV 20802 DLM W
ND 15104 976697 WL150 11597 084 REL 1656N10601W 221512 SPG 1667N1
0608W 221931 =
XXBB 74228 99166 71060 04766 00976 25400 11850 19401 22835 18805
33822 20227 44770 15402 55709 12201 66697 08400
21212 00976 10574 11975 10576 22972 10591 33967 11602 44958 11600
55953 11611 66948 12107 77943 12117 88933 13106 99912 14115 11898
14116 22886 14611 33878 14113 44872 14606 55850 14606 66697 17112
31313 09608 82215
61616 AF308 0102E BUD OB 25
62626 MXWNDBND SPL 1667N10608W 2219 MBL WND 12104 AEV 20802 DLM W
ND 15104 976697 WL150 11597 084 REL 1656N10601W 221512 SPG 1667N1
0608W 221931 =
Product: Air Force Temp Drop (Dropsonde) Message (UZPN13 KNHC)
Transmitted: 24th day of the month at 22:35Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 308)
Storm Number: 02
Storm Name: Bud (flight in the Northeast Pacific basin)
Mission Number: 1
Observation Number: 25
Part A...
Date: Near the closest hour of 22Z on the 24th day of the month
Highest Mandatory Level For Which Wind Was Reported: 700mb
Coordinates: 16.6N 106.0W
Map this location: http://www.tropicalatlantic.com/recon/p ... 6&lon=-106
Location: 285 miles (458 km) to the S (190°) from Puerto Vallarta, Jalisco, México.
Level: Geo. Height / Air Temp. / Dew Point / Wind Direction / Wind Speed
976mb (28.82 inHg): Sea Level (Surface) / 25.4°C (77.7°F) / 25.4°C (77.7°F) / 105° (from the ESE) / 74 knots (85 mph)
1000mb: -217m (-712 ft) / This level does not exist in this area of the storm above the surface level.
925mb: 470m (1,542 ft) / 22.2°C (72.0°F) / 22.2°C (72.0°F) / 130° (from the SE) / 110 knots (127 mph)
850mb: 1,206m (3,957 ft) / 19.4°C (66.9°F) / 19.3°C (66.7°F) / 145° (from the SE) / 106 knots (122 mph)
700mb: 2,863m (9,393 ft) / 9.4°C (48.9°F) / 9.4°C (48.9°F) / 170° (from the S) / 112 knots (129 mph)
Information About Radiosonde:
- Launch Time: 22:15Z
Remarks Section...
Dropsonde Location: Dropped in maximum wind band.
Splash Location: 16.67N 106.08W
Splash Time: 22:19Z
Release Location: 16.56N 106.01W
Map this location: http://www.tropicalatlantic.com/recon/p ... on=-106.01
Release Time: 22:15:12Z
Splash Location: 16.67N 106.08W
Map this location: http://www.tropicalatlantic.com/recon/p ... on=-106.08
Splash Time: 22:19:31Z
Mean Boundary Level Wind (mean wind in the lowest 500 geopotential meters):
- Wind: 120° (from the ESE) at 104 knots (120 mph)
Deep Layer Mean Wind (average wind over the depth):
- Wind: 150° (from the SSE) at 104 knots (120 mph)
- Depth of Sounding: From 697mb to 976mb
Average Wind Over Lowest Available 150 geopotential meters (gpm):
- Lowest 150m: 159 gpm - 9 gpm (522 geo. feet - 30 geo. feet)
- Wind: 115° (from the ESE) at 97 knots (112 mph)
Part B: Data For Significant Levels...
Significant Temperature And Relative Humidity Levels...
Level: Air Temp. / Dew Point
976mb (Surface): 25.4°C (77.7°F) / 25.4°C (77.7°F)
850mb: 19.4°C (66.9°F) / 19.3°C (66.7°F)
835mb: 18.8°C (65.8°F) / 18.3°C (64.9°F)
822mb: 20.2°C (68.4°F) / 17.5°C (63.5°F)
770mb: 15.4°C (59.7°F) / 15.2°C (59.4°F)
709mb: 12.2°C (54.0°F) / 12.1°C (53.8°F)
697mb: 8.4°C (47.1°F) / 8.4°C (47.1°F)
Significant Wind Levels...
Level: Wind Direction / Wind Speed
976mb (Surface): 105° (from the ESE) / 74 knots (85 mph)
975mb: 105° (from the ESE) / 76 knots (87 mph)
972mb: 105° (from the ESE) / 91 knots (105 mph)
967mb: 115° (from the ESE) / 102 knots (117 mph)
958mb: 115° (from the ESE) / 100 knots (115 mph)
953mb: 115° (from the ESE) / 111 knots (128 mph)
948mb: 120° (from the ESE) / 107 knots (123 mph)
943mb: 120° (from the ESE) / 117 knots (135 mph)
933mb: 130° (from the SE) / 106 knots (122 mph)
912mb: 140° (from the SE) / 115 knots (132 mph)
898mb: 140° (from the SE) / 116 knots (133 mph)
886mb: 145° (from the SE) / 111 knots (128 mph)
878mb: 140° (from the SE) / 113 knots (130 mph)
872mb: 145° (from the SE) / 106 knots (122 mph)
850mb: 145° (from the SE) / 106 knots (122 mph)
697mb: 170° (from the S) / 112 knots (129 mph)
---
Original Undecoded Observation:
UZPN13 KNHC 242235
XXAA 74227 99166 71060 04766 99976 25400 10574 00717 ///// /////
92470 22200 13110 85206 19401 14606 70863 09400 17112 88999 77999
31313 09608 82215
61616 AF308 0102E BUD OB 25
62626 MXWNDBND SPL 1667N10608W 2219 MBL WND 12104 AEV 20802 DLM W
ND 15104 976697 WL150 11597 084 REL 1656N10601W 221512 SPG 1667N1
0608W 221931 =
XXBB 74228 99166 71060 04766 00976 25400 11850 19401 22835 18805
33822 20227 44770 15402 55709 12201 66697 08400
21212 00976 10574 11975 10576 22972 10591 33967 11602 44958 11600
55953 11611 66948 12107 77943 12117 88933 13106 99912 14115 11898
14116 22886 14611 33878 14113 44872 14606 55850 14606 66697 17112
31313 09608 82215
61616 AF308 0102E BUD OB 25
62626 MXWNDBND SPL 1667N10608W 2219 MBL WND 12104 AEV 20802 DLM W
ND 15104 976697 WL150 11597 084 REL 1656N10601W 221512 SPG 1667N1
0608W 221931 =
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URPN15 KNHC 242239
AF308 0102E BUD HDOB 52 20120524
223100 1633N 10507W 5729 04714 9966 +021 -067 192061 063 034 001 00
223130 1633N 10505W 5725 04724 9987 +011 -043 191057 059 033 001 00
223200 1633N 10505W 5725 04724 9992 +008 -028 195057 060 034 001 00
223230 1633N 10501W 5724 04728 9990 +012 -035 194058 060 033 001 00
223300 1633N 10459W 5719 04750 9995 +012 -037 198061 064 033 001 00
223330 1632N 10457W 5726 04742 9993 +014 -054 202067 071 032 000 00
223400 1632N 10455W 5694 04780 9985 +017 -057 206064 067 032 002 00
223430 1632N 10453W 5723 04739 9996 +013 -016 204059 061 037 004 00
223500 1632N 10451W 5718 04747 9984 +019 -019 203055 056 034 003 00
223530 1632N 10449W 5713 04757 9989 +016 -022 202054 055 033 004 30
223600 1632N 10447W 5721 04745 9989 +016 -010 202053 054 033 002 00
223630 1632N 10444W 5713 04758 0002 +008 //// 200051 051 032 002 01
223700 1632N 10442W 5724 04739 0004 +008 //// 197053 054 032 004 01
223730 1632N 10440W 5714 04750 //// -005 //// 195053 054 030 005 01
223800 1632N 10438W 5717 04754 //// +000 //// 190053 054 027 003 01
223830 1632N 10436W 5716 04754 0010 +004 //// 187051 052 027 002 01
223900 1632N 10436W 5716 04754 0008 +006 //// 188050 050 027 002 01
223930 1632N 10432W 5720 04748 0010 +006 //// 189050 050 027 000 01
224000 1632N 10431W 5715 04759 0015 +004 //// 191050 051 025 002 01
224030 1632N 10428W 5713 04762 0016 +005 //// 190050 051 027 001 01
$$
AF308 0102E BUD HDOB 52 20120524
223100 1633N 10507W 5729 04714 9966 +021 -067 192061 063 034 001 00
223130 1633N 10505W 5725 04724 9987 +011 -043 191057 059 033 001 00
223200 1633N 10505W 5725 04724 9992 +008 -028 195057 060 034 001 00
223230 1633N 10501W 5724 04728 9990 +012 -035 194058 060 033 001 00
223300 1633N 10459W 5719 04750 9995 +012 -037 198061 064 033 001 00
223330 1632N 10457W 5726 04742 9993 +014 -054 202067 071 032 000 00
223400 1632N 10455W 5694 04780 9985 +017 -057 206064 067 032 002 00
223430 1632N 10453W 5723 04739 9996 +013 -016 204059 061 037 004 00
223500 1632N 10451W 5718 04747 9984 +019 -019 203055 056 034 003 00
223530 1632N 10449W 5713 04757 9989 +016 -022 202054 055 033 004 30
223600 1632N 10447W 5721 04745 9989 +016 -010 202053 054 033 002 00
223630 1632N 10444W 5713 04758 0002 +008 //// 200051 051 032 002 01
223700 1632N 10442W 5724 04739 0004 +008 //// 197053 054 032 004 01
223730 1632N 10440W 5714 04750 //// -005 //// 195053 054 030 005 01
223800 1632N 10438W 5717 04754 //// +000 //// 190053 054 027 003 01
223830 1632N 10436W 5716 04754 0010 +004 //// 187051 052 027 002 01
223900 1632N 10436W 5716 04754 0008 +006 //// 188050 050 027 002 01
223930 1632N 10432W 5720 04748 0010 +006 //// 189050 050 027 000 01
224000 1632N 10431W 5715 04759 0015 +004 //// 191050 051 025 002 01
224030 1632N 10428W 5713 04762 0016 +005 //// 190050 051 027 001 01
$$
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Climbing - homeward bound to Keesler. Safe travels Teal75
URPN15 KNHC 242250
AF308 0102E BUD HDOB 53 20120524
224100 1632N 10426W 5715 04765 0021 +005 //// 189051 051 022 002 05
224130 1632N 10424W 5717 04758 0015 +005 //// 192050 051 024 000 01
224200 1633N 10422W 5718 04760 0014 +008 //// 190048 049 024 001 01
224230 1634N 10420W 5712 04766 0011 +010 //// 188051 052 023 001 01
224300 1635N 10418W 5717 04754 0009 +008 //// 189052 053 023 001 01
224330 1635N 10416W 5717 04761 0012 +009 +007 190052 052 021 001 00
224400 1636N 10414W 5713 04767 0012 +008 +002 192052 052 020 000 00
224430 1637N 10412W 5717 04760 0011 +011 -001 191050 050 020 000 00
224500 1638N 10410W 5720 04760 0011 +011 -002 193050 051 016 002 00
224530 1639N 10408W 5716 04766 0005 +014 -012 196051 051 023 001 00
224600 1639N 10406W 5724 04753 0006 +014 -006 198050 051 022 003 00
224630 1640N 10404W 5712 04768 0004 +014 -006 199049 049 023 000 00
224700 1641N 10402W 5676 04823 0003 +015 -024 201048 049 021 001 03
224730 1642N 10400W 5445 05170 0233 -005 -048 202049 049 /// /// 03
224800 1642N 10358W 5279 05423 0251 -027 -042 202048 048 /// /// 03
224830 1643N 10356W 5072 05739 0274 -049 -067 199047 048 /// /// 03
224900 1644N 10354W 4915 05993 0290 -068 //// 204045 045 /// /// 05
224930 1644N 10353W 4773 06220 0304 -084 -088 209043 044 /// /// 03
225000 1645N 10351W 4621 06473 0318 -102 -119 212045 046 /// /// 03
225030 1646N 10349W 4503 06664 0328 -113 -171 211048 048 /// /// 03
$$
URPN15 KNHC 242250
AF308 0102E BUD HDOB 53 20120524
224100 1632N 10426W 5715 04765 0021 +005 //// 189051 051 022 002 05
224130 1632N 10424W 5717 04758 0015 +005 //// 192050 051 024 000 01
224200 1633N 10422W 5718 04760 0014 +008 //// 190048 049 024 001 01
224230 1634N 10420W 5712 04766 0011 +010 //// 188051 052 023 001 01
224300 1635N 10418W 5717 04754 0009 +008 //// 189052 053 023 001 01
224330 1635N 10416W 5717 04761 0012 +009 +007 190052 052 021 001 00
224400 1636N 10414W 5713 04767 0012 +008 +002 192052 052 020 000 00
224430 1637N 10412W 5717 04760 0011 +011 -001 191050 050 020 000 00
224500 1638N 10410W 5720 04760 0011 +011 -002 193050 051 016 002 00
224530 1639N 10408W 5716 04766 0005 +014 -012 196051 051 023 001 00
224600 1639N 10406W 5724 04753 0006 +014 -006 198050 051 022 003 00
224630 1640N 10404W 5712 04768 0004 +014 -006 199049 049 023 000 00
224700 1641N 10402W 5676 04823 0003 +015 -024 201048 049 021 001 03
224730 1642N 10400W 5445 05170 0233 -005 -048 202049 049 /// /// 03
224800 1642N 10358W 5279 05423 0251 -027 -042 202048 048 /// /// 03
224830 1643N 10356W 5072 05739 0274 -049 -067 199047 048 /// /// 03
224900 1644N 10354W 4915 05993 0290 -068 //// 204045 045 /// /// 05
224930 1644N 10353W 4773 06220 0304 -084 -088 209043 044 /// /// 03
225000 1645N 10351W 4621 06473 0318 -102 -119 212045 046 /// /// 03
225030 1646N 10349W 4503 06664 0328 -113 -171 211048 048 /// /// 03
$$
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URPN15 KNHC 242259
AF308 0102E BUD HDOB 54 20120524
225100 1646N 10347W 4377 06882 0344 -123 -245 212049 051 /// /// 03
225130 1647N 10345W 4268 07080 0356 -135 -259 211049 050 /// /// 03
225200 1648N 10343W 4168 07255 0366 -148 -271 209050 051 018 000 03
225230 1649N 10340W 4072 07438 0377 -167 -271 209052 053 015 000 03
225300 1650N 10338W 3995 07576 0383 -170 -194 200042 049 011 001 00
225330 1650N 10336W 3899 07765 0395 -162 -167 178037 040 010 001 00
225400 1651N 10334W 3826 07906 0406 -174 -180 180035 036 013 001 00
225430 1652N 10331W 3737 08079 0418 -186 -194 186033 034 013 001 00
225500 1653N 10329W 3660 08258 0447 -197 -206 189035 036 012 000 00
225530 1654N 10327W 3608 08362 0457 -203 -222 192036 036 011 001 00
225600 1654N 10325W 3542 08507 0467 -213 -238 193036 037 012 001 00
225630 1655N 10323W 3486 08592 0458 -222 -244 192038 038 013 001 00
225700 1656N 10320W 3422 08734 0460 -236 -247 193037 038 018 001 00
225730 1657N 10318W 3370 08840 0468 -245 -249 193036 037 018 002 00
225800 1658N 10316W 3315 08964 0477 -252 -259 200035 036 019 004 00
225830 1659N 10314W 3278 09046 0483 -259 -262 204037 037 021 005 00
225900 1659N 10311W 3225 09161 0489 -267 -280 206037 038 021 003 00
225930 1700N 10309W 3185 09251 0495 -275 -292 204040 042 018 002 00
230000 1701N 10307W 3167 09290 0496 -277 -284 202039 040 013 002 00
230030 1702N 10305W 3106 09430 0504 -286 -293 197039 039 013 001 00
$$
AF308 0102E BUD HDOB 54 20120524
225100 1646N 10347W 4377 06882 0344 -123 -245 212049 051 /// /// 03
225130 1647N 10345W 4268 07080 0356 -135 -259 211049 050 /// /// 03
225200 1648N 10343W 4168 07255 0366 -148 -271 209050 051 018 000 03
225230 1649N 10340W 4072 07438 0377 -167 -271 209052 053 015 000 03
225300 1650N 10338W 3995 07576 0383 -170 -194 200042 049 011 001 00
225330 1650N 10336W 3899 07765 0395 -162 -167 178037 040 010 001 00
225400 1651N 10334W 3826 07906 0406 -174 -180 180035 036 013 001 00
225430 1652N 10331W 3737 08079 0418 -186 -194 186033 034 013 001 00
225500 1653N 10329W 3660 08258 0447 -197 -206 189035 036 012 000 00
225530 1654N 10327W 3608 08362 0457 -203 -222 192036 036 011 001 00
225600 1654N 10325W 3542 08507 0467 -213 -238 193036 037 012 001 00
225630 1655N 10323W 3486 08592 0458 -222 -244 192038 038 013 001 00
225700 1656N 10320W 3422 08734 0460 -236 -247 193037 038 018 001 00
225730 1657N 10318W 3370 08840 0468 -245 -249 193036 037 018 002 00
225800 1658N 10316W 3315 08964 0477 -252 -259 200035 036 019 004 00
225830 1659N 10314W 3278 09046 0483 -259 -262 204037 037 021 005 00
225900 1659N 10311W 3225 09161 0489 -267 -280 206037 038 021 003 00
225930 1700N 10309W 3185 09251 0495 -275 -292 204040 042 018 002 00
230000 1701N 10307W 3167 09290 0496 -277 -284 202039 040 013 002 00
230030 1702N 10305W 3106 09430 0504 -286 -293 197039 039 013 001 00
$$
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NOUS42 KNHC 241430
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1030 AM EDT THU 24 MAY 2012
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 25/1100Z TO 26/1100Z MAY 2012
TCPOD NUMBER.....12-006
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. TROPICAL STORM BUD
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 76
A. 25/1800Z
B. AFXXX 0202E BUD
C. 25/1215Z
D. 18.2N 105.6W
E. 25/1730Z TO 25/2030Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.
JWP
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1030 AM EDT THU 24 MAY 2012
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 25/1100Z TO 26/1100Z MAY 2012
TCPOD NUMBER.....12-006
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. TROPICAL STORM BUD
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 76
A. 25/1800Z
B. AFXXX 0202E BUD
C. 25/1215Z
D. 18.2N 105.6W
E. 25/1730Z TO 25/2030Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.
JWP
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Yellow Evan
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Re:
CrazyC83 wrote:Still, the SFMR does not support a higher intensity. I'd keep it at 95 kt.
You are right, held at 95 kt for now
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cycloneye
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- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
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Re: EPAC: BUD - Hurricane
Remains at 95kts.
BULLETIN
HURRICANE BUD INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 16A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022012
500 PM PDT THU MAY 24 2012
...BUD REMAINS JUST BELOW MAJOR HURRICANE STRENGTH...
SUMMARY OF 500 PM PDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.7N 106.2W
ABOUT 200 MI...325 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 260 MI...420 KM S OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...962 MB...28.41 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM MANZANILLO NORTHWESTWARD TO CABO
CORRIENTES
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM PUNTA SAN TELMO WESTWARD TO EAST OF
MANZANILLO
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM PUNTA SAN TELMO WESTWARD TO EAST OF
MANZANILLO
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO NORTH OF CABO CORRIENTES TO SAN BLAS
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-
FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT
OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE
RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE UNITED
STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM PDT...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BUD WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 16.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 106.2 WEST. BUD IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST AT A SLIGHTLY SLOWER FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH LATE FRIDAY. ON THIS
TRACK...THE CENTER OF BUD IS FORECAST TO MOVE INLAND ALONG THE
MEXICAN COAST LATE FRIDAY.
RECENT DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 110 MPH...175 KM/H...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. BUD IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-
SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE
TONIGHT OR FRIDAY MORNING...AND BUD COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE
BEFORE WEAKENING BEGINS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...BUD IS STILL
EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST OF MEXICO AS A HURRICANE.
HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115
MILES...185 KM.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 962 MB...28.41 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST WITHIN
THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO FIRST REACH TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH IN THE HURRICANE AND
TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREAS TONIGHT...MAKING OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS
DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY
SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA BY FRIDAY NIGHT.
RAINFALL...BUD IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 4
TO 6 INCHES ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO IN THE STATES OF
MICHOACAN...COLIMA...JALISCO...AND SOUTHERN NAYARIT...WITH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES. THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS
COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.
STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE
THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DAMAGING WAVES.
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY BUD ARE BEGINNING TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN COASTS OF MEXICO. THESE SWELLS ARE
LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
BULLETIN
HURRICANE BUD INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 16A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022012
500 PM PDT THU MAY 24 2012
...BUD REMAINS JUST BELOW MAJOR HURRICANE STRENGTH...
SUMMARY OF 500 PM PDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.7N 106.2W
ABOUT 200 MI...325 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 260 MI...420 KM S OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...962 MB...28.41 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM MANZANILLO NORTHWESTWARD TO CABO
CORRIENTES
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM PUNTA SAN TELMO WESTWARD TO EAST OF
MANZANILLO
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM PUNTA SAN TELMO WESTWARD TO EAST OF
MANZANILLO
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO NORTH OF CABO CORRIENTES TO SAN BLAS
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-
FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT
OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE
RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE UNITED
STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM PDT...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BUD WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 16.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 106.2 WEST. BUD IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST AT A SLIGHTLY SLOWER FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH LATE FRIDAY. ON THIS
TRACK...THE CENTER OF BUD IS FORECAST TO MOVE INLAND ALONG THE
MEXICAN COAST LATE FRIDAY.
RECENT DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 110 MPH...175 KM/H...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. BUD IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-
SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE
TONIGHT OR FRIDAY MORNING...AND BUD COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE
BEFORE WEAKENING BEGINS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...BUD IS STILL
EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST OF MEXICO AS A HURRICANE.
HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115
MILES...185 KM.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 962 MB...28.41 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST WITHIN
THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO FIRST REACH TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH IN THE HURRICANE AND
TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREAS TONIGHT...MAKING OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS
DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY
SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA BY FRIDAY NIGHT.
RAINFALL...BUD IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 4
TO 6 INCHES ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO IN THE STATES OF
MICHOACAN...COLIMA...JALISCO...AND SOUTHERN NAYARIT...WITH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES. THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS
COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.
STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE
THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DAMAGING WAVES.
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY BUD ARE BEGINNING TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN COASTS OF MEXICO. THESE SWELLS ARE
LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
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cycloneye
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- Age: 68
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models
00z Tropical Models.
WHXX01 KWBC 250031
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0031 UTC FRI MAY 25 2012
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL942012) 20120525 0000 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
120525 0000 120525 1200 120526 0000 120526 1200
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 26.5N 78.6W 28.2N 78.0W 28.6N 77.2W 28.4N 76.9W
BAMD 26.5N 78.6W 30.1N 76.6W 32.4N 75.3W 33.2N 75.5W
BAMM 26.5N 78.6W 28.9N 77.6W 30.0N 76.7W 30.1N 76.8W
LBAR 26.5N 78.6W 29.1N 76.5W 31.1N 74.7W 31.9N 72.3W
SHIP 35KTS 39KTS 41KTS 42KTS
DSHP 35KTS 39KTS 41KTS 42KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
120527 0000 120528 0000 120529 0000 120530 0000
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 28.5N 76.9W 31.6N 78.3W 34.9N 80.3W 37.8N 78.6W
BAMD 33.6N 77.1W 34.1N 81.4W 34.1N 83.5W 34.6N 81.1W
BAMM 30.3N 77.4W 31.8N 80.3W 33.1N 82.4W 34.0N 81.1W
LBAR 31.8N 70.8W 29.8N 68.7W 29.0N 67.4W 28.4N 65.1W
SHIP 40KTS 34KTS 19KTS 0KTS
DSHP 40KTS 34KTS 27KTS 0KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 26.5N LONCUR = 78.6W DIRCUR = 35DEG SPDCUR = 16KT
LATM12 = 23.8N LONM12 = 81.3W DIRM12 = 31DEG SPDM12 = 14KT
LATM24 = 21.4N LONM24 = 82.4W
WNDCUR = 35KT RMAXWD = 75NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 120NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 75NM RD34SE = 75NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
WHXX01 KWBC 250031
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0031 UTC FRI MAY 25 2012
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL942012) 20120525 0000 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
120525 0000 120525 1200 120526 0000 120526 1200
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 26.5N 78.6W 28.2N 78.0W 28.6N 77.2W 28.4N 76.9W
BAMD 26.5N 78.6W 30.1N 76.6W 32.4N 75.3W 33.2N 75.5W
BAMM 26.5N 78.6W 28.9N 77.6W 30.0N 76.7W 30.1N 76.8W
LBAR 26.5N 78.6W 29.1N 76.5W 31.1N 74.7W 31.9N 72.3W
SHIP 35KTS 39KTS 41KTS 42KTS
DSHP 35KTS 39KTS 41KTS 42KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
120527 0000 120528 0000 120529 0000 120530 0000
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 28.5N 76.9W 31.6N 78.3W 34.9N 80.3W 37.8N 78.6W
BAMD 33.6N 77.1W 34.1N 81.4W 34.1N 83.5W 34.6N 81.1W
BAMM 30.3N 77.4W 31.8N 80.3W 33.1N 82.4W 34.0N 81.1W
LBAR 31.8N 70.8W 29.8N 68.7W 29.0N 67.4W 28.4N 65.1W
SHIP 40KTS 34KTS 19KTS 0KTS
DSHP 40KTS 34KTS 27KTS 0KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 26.5N LONCUR = 78.6W DIRCUR = 35DEG SPDCUR = 16KT
LATM12 = 23.8N LONM12 = 81.3W DIRM12 = 31DEG SPDM12 = 14KT
LATM24 = 21.4N LONM24 = 82.4W
WNDCUR = 35KT RMAXWD = 75NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 120NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 75NM RD34SE = 75NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
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Kingarabian
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cycloneye
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Re: EPAC: BUD - Hurricane
00z Best Track
EP, 02, 2012052500, , BEST, 0, 168N, 1061W, 100, 960, HU
http://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/inve ... 012.invest
EP, 02, 2012052500, , BEST, 0, 168N, 1061W, 100, 960, HU
http://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/inve ... 012.invest
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euro6208
Re: EPAC: BUD - Hurricane
excited to see our neighboring pacific brother with a strong hurricane...
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Yellow Evan
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Re:
Kingarabian wrote:Appears to be going through an EWRC.
That means it will likely weaken quite a bit before landfall.
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Kingarabian
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Re: Re:
Yellow Evan wrote:Kingarabian wrote:Appears to be going through an EWRC.
That means it will likely weaken quite a bit before landfall.
It still has 12 more hours to strengthen per the NHC. But it may have peaked.
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RIP Kobe Bryant
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JonathanBelles
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Yellow Evan
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Re: Re:
Kingarabian wrote:Yellow Evan wrote:Kingarabian wrote:Appears to be going through an EWRC.
That means it will likely weaken quite a bit before landfall.
It still has 12 more hours to strengthen per the NHC. But it may have peaked.
It's peaked IMO.
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Yellow Evan
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000
WTPZ32 KNHC 250233
TCPEP2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE BUD ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022012
800 PM PDT THU MAY 24 2012
...BUD STRENGTHENS INTO A MAJOR HURRICANE...
SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.1N 105.9W
ABOUT 170 MI...270 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 230 MI...370 KM S OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB...28.35 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM MANZANILLO NORTHWESTWARD TO CABO
CORRIENTES
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM PUNTA SAN TELMO WESTWARD TO EAST OF
MANZANILLO
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM PUNTA SAN TELMO WESTWARD TO EAST OF
MANZANILLO
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO NORTH OF CABO CORRIENTES TO SAN BLAS
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-
FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT
OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE
RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE UNITED
STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BUD WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 17.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 105.9 WEST. BUD IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTH AT A SLIGHTLY SLOWER FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF BUD IS FORECAST TO
MOVE INLAND ALONG THE MEXICAN COAST BY LATE FRIDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 115 MPH...185 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. BUD IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON WIND SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE
POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE GRADUAL WEAKENING BEGINS
BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...BUD IS STILL EXPECTED TO REACH THE
COAST OF MEXICO AS A HURRICANE.
HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115
MILES...185 KM.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 960 MB...28.35 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST WITHIN
THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO FIRST REACH TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH IN THE HURRICANE AND
TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREAS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING...MAKING
OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA BY FRIDAY
NIGHT.
RAINFALL...BUD IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 5
TO 8 INCHES ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO IN THE STATES OF
MICHOACAN...COLIMA...JALISCO...AND SOUTHERN NAYARIT...WITH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES. THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS
COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.
STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE
THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DAMAGING WAVES.
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY BUD ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN COASTS OF MEXICO. THESE SWELLS ARE
LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...1100 PM PDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 AM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
Disco not out yet, will edit post when it is
Now that disco is out, I am posting it
000
WTPZ42 KNHC 250240
TCDEP2
HURRICANE BUD DISCUSSION NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022012
800 PM PDT THU MAY 24 2012
CONVENTIONAL AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES BUD HAS
EVOLVED INTO AN ANNULAR HURRICANE WITH LITTLE TO NO OUTER BANDING
FEATURES. DEEP CONVECTION HAS INCREASED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WITH AN EYE BECOMING MORE PRONOUNCED IN VISIBLE AND INFRARED
IMAGERY. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE T6.0/115 KT FROM
TAFB...T5.5/102 KT FROM SAB...AND UW-CIMSS ADT VALUES HAVE BEEN
AVERAGING T5.7/107 KT OVER THE PAST 3 HOURS. ALSO...AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT ON ITS FINAL OUTBOUND LEG
OBSERVED 700 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 120 KT IN THE EASTERN
QUADRANT. SFMR SURFACE WINDS IN THAT SAME AREA WERE ONLY AROUND 85
KT...WHICH IS MUCH LOWER THAN ONE WOULD EXPECT USING THE STANDARD
90 PERCENT REDUCTION FACTOR. THIS WAS LIKELY DUE TO SOME
NORTHEASTWARD TILT TO AND ELONGATION OF THE EYE...AND THE LACK OF
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION. SINCE THAT TIME...HOWEVER...CONVECTION HAS
INCREASED MARKEDLY IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE AND A 24/2229Z TRMM
OVERPASS INDICATED A CIRCULAR EYE OF ABOUT 20 NMI DIAMETER.
ALTHOUGH THE DEEPEST CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE SOMEWHAT TRANSIENT...
THERE IS LIKELY ENOUGH CONVECTION TO MIX DOWN AT LEAST 85 PERCENT
OF THE FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS...WHICH SUPPORTS MAKING BUD A 100-KT
MAJOR HURRICANE.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 030 DEGREES AT 9 KT. BUD IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AND THEN NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT 24-36
HOURS AS THE CYCLONE REMAINS CAUGHT BETWEEN A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE
TO ITS EAST ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO AND A
MID-LEVEL TROUGH TO ITS WEST ACROSS NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND BAJA
CALIFORNIA. NHC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON BUD
MAKING LANDFALL ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO IN 24-30
HOURS. AFTER THAT...HOWEVER...THE MODEL GUIDANCE DIVERGES WITH THE
GFS AND THE REGIONAL MODELS TAKING BUD INLAND OVER MEXICO WHILE THE
ECMWF AND UKMET BRING THE EXPECTED REMNANTS OF BUD BACK OVER WATER
BY 48-72 HOURS. GIVEN THAT THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS WILL LIKELY
CAUSE THE LOW-LEVEL AND UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS OF BUD TO DECOUPLE
SHORTLY AFTER LANDFALL...WITH THE MID-/UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS
CONTINUING NORTHEASTWARD...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINS SIMILAR TO
THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACKS AND THE ECMWF AND UKMET MODELS BY
TURNING BUD SLOWLY SOUTHWARD BY 36 HOURS AFTER IT MAKES LANDFALL.
BUD HAS LIKELY PEAKED IN INTENSITY...AND SLOW WEAKENING SHOULD ENSUE
BY 12 HOURS OR SO AS MODEST SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND DRY MID-LEVEL
AIR IMPINGE ON THE SMALL INNER CORE OF THIS ANNULAR HURRICANE.
HOWEVER...BUD IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE A HURRICANE BY THE TIME IT
MAKES LANDFALL ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO. FASTER WEAKENING WILL
OCCUR ONCE THE CENTER MOVES INLAND AND INTERACTS WITH THE HIGH
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...AND THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST HAS BUD DEGENERATING INTO A REMNANT LOW BY DAYS 3-4...
IF NOT SOONER.
GIVEN THE SLOW FORWARD SPEED OF BUD WHEN IT MAKES LANDFALL...
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL CAUSING DANGEROUS MUD SLIDES APPEARS LIKELY
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO IN THE STATES OF
MICHOACAN...COLIMA...JALISCO...AND SOUTHERN NAYARIT.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 25/0300Z 17.1N 105.9W 100 KT 115 MPH
12H 25/1200Z 18.1N 105.6W 95 KT 110 MPH
24H 26/0000Z 19.4N 105.2W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 26/1200Z 20.2N 105.1W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND
48H 27/0000Z 20.3N 105.2W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
72H 28/0000Z 19.5N 105.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...OVER WATER
96H 29/0000Z 19.1N 105.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 30/0000Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
WTPZ32 KNHC 250233
TCPEP2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE BUD ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022012
800 PM PDT THU MAY 24 2012
...BUD STRENGTHENS INTO A MAJOR HURRICANE...
SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.1N 105.9W
ABOUT 170 MI...270 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 230 MI...370 KM S OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB...28.35 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM MANZANILLO NORTHWESTWARD TO CABO
CORRIENTES
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM PUNTA SAN TELMO WESTWARD TO EAST OF
MANZANILLO
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM PUNTA SAN TELMO WESTWARD TO EAST OF
MANZANILLO
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO NORTH OF CABO CORRIENTES TO SAN BLAS
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-
FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT
OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE
RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE UNITED
STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BUD WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 17.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 105.9 WEST. BUD IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTH AT A SLIGHTLY SLOWER FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF BUD IS FORECAST TO
MOVE INLAND ALONG THE MEXICAN COAST BY LATE FRIDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 115 MPH...185 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. BUD IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON WIND SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE
POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE GRADUAL WEAKENING BEGINS
BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...BUD IS STILL EXPECTED TO REACH THE
COAST OF MEXICO AS A HURRICANE.
HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115
MILES...185 KM.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 960 MB...28.35 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST WITHIN
THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO FIRST REACH TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH IN THE HURRICANE AND
TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREAS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING...MAKING
OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA BY FRIDAY
NIGHT.
RAINFALL...BUD IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 5
TO 8 INCHES ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO IN THE STATES OF
MICHOACAN...COLIMA...JALISCO...AND SOUTHERN NAYARIT...WITH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES. THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS
COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.
STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE
THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DAMAGING WAVES.
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY BUD ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN COASTS OF MEXICO. THESE SWELLS ARE
LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...1100 PM PDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 AM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
Disco not out yet, will edit post when it is
Now that disco is out, I am posting it
000
WTPZ42 KNHC 250240
TCDEP2
HURRICANE BUD DISCUSSION NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022012
800 PM PDT THU MAY 24 2012
CONVENTIONAL AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES BUD HAS
EVOLVED INTO AN ANNULAR HURRICANE WITH LITTLE TO NO OUTER BANDING
FEATURES. DEEP CONVECTION HAS INCREASED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WITH AN EYE BECOMING MORE PRONOUNCED IN VISIBLE AND INFRARED
IMAGERY. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE T6.0/115 KT FROM
TAFB...T5.5/102 KT FROM SAB...AND UW-CIMSS ADT VALUES HAVE BEEN
AVERAGING T5.7/107 KT OVER THE PAST 3 HOURS. ALSO...AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT ON ITS FINAL OUTBOUND LEG
OBSERVED 700 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 120 KT IN THE EASTERN
QUADRANT. SFMR SURFACE WINDS IN THAT SAME AREA WERE ONLY AROUND 85
KT...WHICH IS MUCH LOWER THAN ONE WOULD EXPECT USING THE STANDARD
90 PERCENT REDUCTION FACTOR. THIS WAS LIKELY DUE TO SOME
NORTHEASTWARD TILT TO AND ELONGATION OF THE EYE...AND THE LACK OF
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION. SINCE THAT TIME...HOWEVER...CONVECTION HAS
INCREASED MARKEDLY IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE AND A 24/2229Z TRMM
OVERPASS INDICATED A CIRCULAR EYE OF ABOUT 20 NMI DIAMETER.
ALTHOUGH THE DEEPEST CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE SOMEWHAT TRANSIENT...
THERE IS LIKELY ENOUGH CONVECTION TO MIX DOWN AT LEAST 85 PERCENT
OF THE FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS...WHICH SUPPORTS MAKING BUD A 100-KT
MAJOR HURRICANE.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 030 DEGREES AT 9 KT. BUD IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AND THEN NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT 24-36
HOURS AS THE CYCLONE REMAINS CAUGHT BETWEEN A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE
TO ITS EAST ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO AND A
MID-LEVEL TROUGH TO ITS WEST ACROSS NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND BAJA
CALIFORNIA. NHC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON BUD
MAKING LANDFALL ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO IN 24-30
HOURS. AFTER THAT...HOWEVER...THE MODEL GUIDANCE DIVERGES WITH THE
GFS AND THE REGIONAL MODELS TAKING BUD INLAND OVER MEXICO WHILE THE
ECMWF AND UKMET BRING THE EXPECTED REMNANTS OF BUD BACK OVER WATER
BY 48-72 HOURS. GIVEN THAT THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS WILL LIKELY
CAUSE THE LOW-LEVEL AND UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS OF BUD TO DECOUPLE
SHORTLY AFTER LANDFALL...WITH THE MID-/UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS
CONTINUING NORTHEASTWARD...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINS SIMILAR TO
THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACKS AND THE ECMWF AND UKMET MODELS BY
TURNING BUD SLOWLY SOUTHWARD BY 36 HOURS AFTER IT MAKES LANDFALL.
BUD HAS LIKELY PEAKED IN INTENSITY...AND SLOW WEAKENING SHOULD ENSUE
BY 12 HOURS OR SO AS MODEST SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND DRY MID-LEVEL
AIR IMPINGE ON THE SMALL INNER CORE OF THIS ANNULAR HURRICANE.
HOWEVER...BUD IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE A HURRICANE BY THE TIME IT
MAKES LANDFALL ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO. FASTER WEAKENING WILL
OCCUR ONCE THE CENTER MOVES INLAND AND INTERACTS WITH THE HIGH
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...AND THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST HAS BUD DEGENERATING INTO A REMNANT LOW BY DAYS 3-4...
IF NOT SOONER.
GIVEN THE SLOW FORWARD SPEED OF BUD WHEN IT MAKES LANDFALL...
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL CAUSING DANGEROUS MUD SLIDES APPEARS LIKELY
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO IN THE STATES OF
MICHOACAN...COLIMA...JALISCO...AND SOUTHERN NAYARIT.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 25/0300Z 17.1N 105.9W 100 KT 115 MPH
12H 25/1200Z 18.1N 105.6W 95 KT 110 MPH
24H 26/0000Z 19.4N 105.2W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 26/1200Z 20.2N 105.1W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND
48H 27/0000Z 20.3N 105.2W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
72H 28/0000Z 19.5N 105.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...OVER WATER
96H 29/0000Z 19.1N 105.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 30/0000Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
Last edited by Yellow Evan on Thu May 24, 2012 9:42 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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