ATL: DEBBY - Post-Tropical

[Aric Dunn]

sure is amazing what happens with a little sunshine. sun came out here and about an hour later the higher winds aloft started mixing down im getting some good gust hear into the 40's.

[ronjon]

Based on Tally radar, Debby seems to have stalled or maybe even backing SW.

[sfwx]

We currently have south winds at 25 mph gusting to 40 mph here. ( I am 15 miles west of Fort Pierce.)
Eric

[ronjon]

I think NHC could classify Debby as a TD now. Convection is wrapping around the N & W sides now.

[AdamFirst]

We currently have south winds at 25 mph gusting to 40 mph here. ( I am 15 miles west of Fort Pierce.)
Eric

It's definitely blustery all the way down here

My screen door keeps slamming open and closed and the potted plants are all over the place on the porch

[ozonepete]

Debby is at the tail end of the front that extends to Jacksonville, FL. Obs offshore don't support TS winds, nor does Debby's satellite appearance support TS status. Center swirl is about 16 miles from the coast. Development chances east of Florida don't look good.

What do you think the NHC is missing, since they have it restrengthening?

[drezee]

Convection starting to elevate on the N side of the circulation again…NWS needs to watch this as Flood Criteria are less than 3 inches now…

[Aric Dunn]

Debby is at the tail end of the front that extends to Jacksonville, FL. Obs offshore don't support TS winds, nor does Debby's satellite appearance support TS status. Center swirl is about 16 miles from the coast. Development chances east of Florida don't look good.

What do you think the NHC is missing, since they have it restrengthening?

They are not missing anything. the trough is supposed to eventually leave debbie behind and the westerly are supposed to eventually pick it up as it drfits ene to NE since there is not expected ridging to build in. thus would not be attached to the trough anymore ( even though its barely attached if at all otherwise NHC would have mentioned it)

[drezee]

1-2 inch per hour rates N of Lake City...20+ received in that area already...

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 11&loop=no

[tolakram]

Loop: http://www.esl.lsu.edu/animate/goes/ind ... channel=ir

Once again it looks like convection starting to fire over land, just like yesterday afternoon. I sincerely hope it does not drop as much rain as it did yesterday but people in those bands need to be prepared, IMO.

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[mutley]

1-2 inch per hour rates N of Lake City...20+ received in that area already...

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 11&loop=no

That area has been getting battered with rain since very early this morning. Poor folks.

[ozonepete]

Convection starting to elevate on the N side of the circulation again…NWS needs to watch this as Flood Criteria are less than 3 inches now…

Yeah, I see it too. Here we go again. Hope everyone is prepared...

[cycloneye]

Recon missions canceled

They released a TCPOD this afternoon.It was a given with Debby crossing Florida.

000
NOUS42 KNHC 261900 CCA
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0300 PM EDT TUE JUN 26 2012
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 27/1100Z TO 28/1100Z JUN 2012
TCPOD NUMBER.....12-039 AMENDMENT

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS - CHANGED -
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
3. REMARK: MISSIONS FOR 27/0000,0600Z AND
27/1200,1800Z ARE NOW CANX BY NHC AT 26/1900Z.

[robbielyn]

Looks like its making landfall.

My a met.

[drezee]

That was fast...taking all precautions

FLASH FLOOD WARNING
FLC067-262100-
/O.NEW.KTAE.FF.W.0022.120626T1901Z-120626T2100Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
301 PM EDT TUE JUN 26 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
LAFAYETTE COUNTY IN FLORIDA...

* UNTIL 500 PM EDT

* AT 255 PM EDT...EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS REPORTED FLASH
FLOODING ACROSS SR 51 SOUTH OF MAYO. ADDITIONALLY...SOME BUSINESSES
ARE EXPERIENCING MINOR FLOODING IN THE CITY OF MAYO.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO MAYO

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF SMALL
CREEKS AND STREAMS...HIGHWAYS AND UNDERPASSES. ADDITIONALLY...COUNTRY
ROADS AND FARMLANDS ALONG THE BANKS OF CREEKS...STREAMS AND OTHER LOW
LYING AREAS ARE SUBJECT TO FLOODING.

* REPORT FLOODING OR FLOOD DAMAGE TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
TALLAHASSEE AT (8 5 0) 9 4 2 8 8 3 3. OR...YOU MAY CONTACT THE

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

It is a good thing the Skyway is still closed: had a gust to around 67 mph a couple hours ago.
It is at an altitude of 174 feet above sea level. At that altitude it stays very windy.
While winds at the surface are not too bad, just above the surface the winds
are very strong in the 55-70 mph range.

http://bridgemonitoring.com/bridges/Skyway/sky.htm
Click "tower center" spreadsheet link.

[WilmingtonSandbar]

Debby has just about everything going against her at the moment....shear, dry air, land interaction and upwelling.....little doubt that the cyclone is on a weakening trend. Should be down to a depression soon and I'm not so certain Debby will survive the transit across Florida....we shall see. Winds have backed off quite a bit since yesterday here on the Mississippi Coast......MGC

Can someone please explain what upwelling is? Thanks.

I tend to think of it as a deep water well and pump system. The longer a storm sits over an area of water, it "sucks" cooler water from deeper under the surface to the surface which then gets mixed into the atmosphere. The cooler water in the atmosphere can then inhibit a storm from strengthening or cause it to weaken.

[mutley]

That was fast...taking all precautions

FLASH FLOOD WARNING
FLC067-262100-
/O.NEW.KTAE.FF.W.0022.120626T1901Z-120626T2100Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
301 PM EDT TUE JUN 26 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
LAFAYETTE COUNTY IN FLORIDA...

Another flood warning up for an adjoining county.

[jlauderdal]

Here's a surface plot. Strongest wind I've seen all morning is 30 kts. Strongest winds about 180-230 miles SE of the center and 80 miles NW of the center. So don't look for strong wind anywhere near the center moves ashore. Winds will be stronger in Ft. Myers and Miami than where the center moves inland. Not typical of a tropical cyclone.

http://home.comcast.net/~cgh57/debby1.gif

http://www.sun-sentinel.com/news/browar ... 3583.story


Reports of downed power lines and sparking transformers were lodged with responders in Broward County from 2 p.m. Tuesday.

The National Weather Service in Miami says it's not from tornadoes, but rather from wind gusts.

Meteorologist Robert Molleda said winds have blown to close to 40 mph Tuesday, the result of “the southeast side of [Tropical Storm] Debby’s circulation.”

[OuterBanker]

Just a local observation. The cold front that pushed through last night produced heavy tstorms. This am it was clear and cool, in short a perfect day (now 75, 15mph winds). But just awhile ago the outer edges of Debby (not sure if it could be called outflow) have showed here. I did not expect this. If you review the east coast visable it will be obvious and you will see the cloud bank pushing north and west. Debby's latest jog seems to be around 50 or closer to ne than ene which means it would exit further north if it held that course. So I have a few questions for the mets.

1 - Why hasn't the cool dry air from last nights cold front ended Debby's existance?

2 - Everything west of Debby seems to belong in the Sahara (looks like 2/3 of conus is dry according the wv sat loops) how could she be still here?

3 - Is it possible for Debby to entrain the moisture that seems to exist everywhere east of her, and is that what the models are seeing for possible strengthening after Fl exit.