ATL: DEBBY - Post-Tropical

[AdamFirst]

The sun is shining here for the first time in three days, but it's quickly clouding over again with these passing feeder bands.

[OuterBanker]

Debby reminds me of a TS that hit NC a few years ago. It was rather ragged, sheared etc. It made landfall around Wilmington and decoupled. Wilmington got the rain the llc proceeded over us. We had a beautiful day with a few fair weather cumulus and no wind or rain. But, you could see the rotation in the cloud pattern.

[JGrin87]

It looks like her rotation is tightening up a bit.

[Evil Jeremy]

Can't tell if it is a wobble or not but I see ENE movement in the last few frames of the visible loop.

[Recurve]

So the forecast is now for an almost due eastward movement to landfall just south of Cedar Key (NHC 11 a.m. track forecast).
Interesting that we have a 180 degree change from early track forecasts. But there was something of a coin-flip to the earliest forecasts.

Really glad Debby didn't have time/conditions to organize into a strong hurricane, this would have been a nightmare for Tampa bay area, front-right quad and all that.

[Recurve]

000
WTNT34 KNHC 261451
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM DEBBY ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042012
1100 AM EDT TUE JUN 26 2012

...DEBBY SLOWLY WEAKENING BUT FLOODING THREAT CONTINUES
ACROSS FLORIDA AND SOUTHERN GEORGIA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.9N 84.2W
ABOUT 70 MI...110 KM W OF CEDAR KEY FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 90 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.32 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE FLORIDA GULF COAST FROM MEXICO BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY
YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DEBBY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.2 WEST. DEBBY IS
MOVING TOWARD THE EAST NEAR 3 MPH...6 KM/H. AN EASTWARD OR EAST-
NORTHEASTWARD MOTION WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND THE CENTER OF DEBBY
SHOULD BE MOVING ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA TOMORROW.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 40 MPH...65
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. DEBBY IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES...335
KM...MAINLY TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 993 MB...29.32 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF
THE FLORIDA GULF COAST TODAY.

STORM SURGE...EVEN THOUGH DEBBY CONTINUES TO SLOWLY WEAKEN...COASTAL
FLOODING WILL CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO DUE TO PERSISTENT
ONSHORE WINDS. THE COMBINATION OF A STORM SURGE AND THE TIDE WILL
CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY RISING
WATERS DURING THE NEXT HIGH TIDE LATER TODAY. THE WATER COULD REACH
THE FOLLOWING DEPTHS ABOVE GROUND...

APALACHEE BAY AND THE NATURE COAST...2 TO 4 FT
SOUTH OF THE NATURE COAST INCLUDING TAMPA BAY...1 TO 3 FT

THE DEEPEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN AREAS OF
ONSHORE FLOW. SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE
TIMING OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER
SHORT DISTANCES. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE
SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE.

RAINFALL...DEBBY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAIN
ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA AND EXTREME
SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ISOLATED STORM
TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 25 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN NORTHERN FLORIDA.

TORNADOES...ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA TODAY.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 PM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/FRANKLIN

[tolakram]

Please remember this is the models thread and discussion should be restricted to model output and directly related discussion.

[MGC]

Debby has just about everything going against her at the moment....shear, dry air, land interaction and upwelling.....little doubt that the cyclone is on a weakening trend. Should be down to a depression soon and I'm not so certain Debby will survive the transit across Florida....we shall see. Winds have backed off quite a bit since yesterday here on the Mississippi Coast......MGC

[Steve H.]

She does actually seem to be tightening up a bit in the last few frames. Hard to tell if she's going east or east-northeast due to the center now becoming more apparent.

[tolakram]

Folks,

If you make a prediction, regardless if you add a question mark, you need to include the S2K disclaimer. It's not an option.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.


You can copy and paste the disclaimer text from the top of the page (it appears just above your posting window).

Thanks.

[Dave]

Nothing else came in that I can find Chris, it stopped at 23.

Next mission and only a couple more scheduled including this one.. takeoff around 6:30 pm edt today.

TROPICAL STORM DEBBY
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70 --
A. 27/0000Z,0600Z
B. AFXXX 0704A DEBBY
C. 26/2230Z
D. 29.0N 84.8W
E. 26/2330Z TO 27/0600Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

[SeminoleWind]

A good look at the circulation Tallahassee radar.


http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?prod ... H&loop=yes

[StormingB81]

Sun is out but the news is saying that is going to lead to severe weather this afternoon....we shall see what the afternoon brings

[tolakram]

Latest Visible



Loops:

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... umframes=5

http://www.esl.lsu.edu/animate/goes/ind ... hannel=vis

[psyclone]

the most Debby warrants at the moment is a naked swirl advisory. the orange windfield graphic is always overcooked, especially when on land. i don't think any land area is getting sustained TS winds nor will any such conditions occur. we're gusting to near 40 here in the tampa bay area but sustained winds are less.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[KWT]

Looks like Debby is merging with the cold front today. Doesn't look tropical at all now. Quite a few obs offshore indicate peak winds now about 30 kts.

Its an interesting presentation, looks alot like a subtropical system today I've got to admit.

[Peach]

As Baker county has received enough rain for the St. Mary's to reach 18 feet, and Live Oak, 65 miles west northwest of my town is evacuating some areas, and parts of I-10 are closed, she is a powerful storm. At least to those looking at the rising waters.......................

[TheBurn]

16:30z VIS / IR (Day / Night)

[KWT]

What is interesting is the models do suggests that Debby might try and re-strengthen once its finally out into the Atlantic. I suspect it'll be getting some Baroclinic help by that point and may not be totally tropical but its an interesting possible outcome.

Still going to take forever for this system to get away from the looks of things!

[ozonepete]

Definitely accelerated. Looks like it will be onshore in a few hours at this rate. Just imho. We will see at 2PM.