ATL: HELENE - Post-Tropical
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models
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Note: If I make a post that is brief. Please refer back to previous posts for the analysis or reasoning. I do not re-write/qoute what my initial post said each time.
If there is nothing before... then just ask
Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...
If there is nothing before... then just ask
Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...
Can't fail to miss the decent rotation there with 92L but conditions aren't the best out there from the looks of things.
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- Gustywind
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000
AXNT20 KNHC 071804 CCA
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...COR
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT TUE AUG 07 2012
...TROPICAL WAVES...
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 18N28W TO 15N29W
TO A 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 12N19W...IN THE
MONSOON TROUGH. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG IS FROM 10N TO 15N BETWEEN 27W AND 31W...
AND FROM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN 32W AND 35W.
AXNT20 KNHC 071804 CCA
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...COR
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT TUE AUG 07 2012
...TROPICAL WAVES...
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 18N28W TO 15N29W
TO A 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 12N19W...IN THE
MONSOON TROUGH. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG IS FROM 10N TO 15N BETWEEN 27W AND 31W...
AND FROM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN 32W AND 35W.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L
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- Extratropical94
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L
Tertius wrote:http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/sal/splitE.jpg
If 92L can eat up that tip of the SAL which is right in front of the invest, the conditions would be pretty good for the next waves, especially Pouch 13L
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54° 11' 59'' N, 9° 9' 20'' E
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models
18z Models
Wow,SHIP up to 77kts.
Wow,SHIP up to 77kts.
Code: Select all
WHXX01 KWBC 071834
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1834 UTC TUE AUG 7 2012
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL922012) 20120807 1800 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
120807 1800 120808 0600 120808 1800 120809 0600
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 11.8N 31.3W 12.4N 33.7W 12.8N 36.4W 12.6N 39.3W
BAMD 11.8N 31.3W 12.5N 34.0W 13.0N 36.4W 13.1N 38.8W
BAMM 11.8N 31.3W 12.7N 33.8W 13.3N 36.2W 13.3N 38.5W
LBAR 11.8N 31.3W 12.2N 34.7W 12.8N 38.1W 13.3N 41.4W
SHIP 25KTS 29KTS 35KTS 41KTS
DSHP 25KTS 29KTS 35KTS 41KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
120809 1800 120810 1800 120811 1800 120812 1800
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 12.2N 42.3W 11.2N 49.4W 11.3N 57.0W 12.2N 64.9W
BAMD 12.8N 41.1W 12.0N 45.5W 12.3N 49.1W 13.7N 52.3W
BAMM 13.0N 40.9W 12.1N 45.4W 11.8N 49.1W 12.5N 52.7W
LBAR 13.5N 44.5W 13.4N 50.4W 13.6N 54.6W .0N .0W
SHIP 47KTS 60KTS 72KTS 77KTS
DSHP 47KTS 60KTS 72KTS 77KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 11.8N LONCUR = 31.3W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR = 17KT
LATM12 = 11.8N LONM12 = 27.8W DIRM12 = 272DEG SPDM12 = 15KT
LATM24 = 11.6N LONM24 = 25.5W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
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SHIPS certainly agressive with it, other models do very little with it at all though.
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- cycloneye
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models
No wonder why SHIP has 92L going to hurricane. Is because the shear will not be a problem so the only impediment would be the dry air. 18z forecast.
ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/stext/12080 ... _ships.txt
Code: Select all
SHEAR (KT) 12 9 8 10 13 6 5 3 2 0 3 7 6
ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/stext/12080 ... _ships.txt
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Looks like the lower levels are much quicker than the upper levels, sorta the same problem Ernesto had from the looks of the BAM's suite.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models
The 12Z GFDL does take 92L down to about a 1000 mb TS with 40-50 kt winds for days 3-5.
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- 'CaneFreak
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models
Mid level dry air indeed. I guess the research question becomes: why are we seeing so much mid level dry air in the tropical Atlantic? Is there something about the climatic changes we have seen in recent years that is allowing for more dry air to plague the Atlantic for longer periods than normal?
Code: Select all
700-500 MB RH 59 60 59 54 54 51 45 45 41 40 38 39 37
cycloneye wrote:No wonder why SHIP has 92L going to hurricane. Is because the shear will not be a problem so the only impediment would be the dry air. 18z forecast.Code: Select all
SHEAR (KT) 12 9 8 10 13 6 5 3 2 0 3 7 6
ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/stext/12080 ... _ships.txt
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Re:
Gustywind wrote:Decreasing numbers...
07/1800 UTC 12.3N 31.3W TOO WEAK 92L
07/1145 UTC 12.0N 29.5W T1.0/1.0 92L
I think the actual best rotation is to the south of where they are looking, somewhere around 11N.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L
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A few storms flaring up on that loop there cycloneye. SAL very evident to the north of it still as well.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L
18:00 UTC RGB Natural Color - 92L
et tu Florence? And I really like the reflection in this shot...
et tu Florence? And I really like the reflection in this shot...
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L
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M a r k
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