SIO: FUNSO - Tropical Cyclone (08S)

[HURAKAN]

WTIO30 FMEE 201312
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 7/8/20112012
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 8 (FUNSO)
2.A POSITION 2012/01/20 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.2 S / 38.2 E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND THIRTY EIGHT DECIMAL TWO
DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST 3 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.5/4.5/D 1.5/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 973 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 65 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :17 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 200 SW: 150 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 90 SE: 90 SW: 90 NW: 90
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 60
64 KT NE: 20 SE: 20 SW: 20 NW: 20
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1001 HPA / 500 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2012/01/21 00 UTC: 18.4 S / 37.9 E, MAX WIND=065 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H: 2012/01/21 12 UTC: 18.8 S / 37.9 E, MAX WIND=065 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
36H: 2012/01/22 00 UTC: 19.1 S / 38.4 E, MAX WIND=070 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
48H: 2012/01/22 12 UTC: 19.2 S / 39.1 E, MAX WIND=080 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
60H: 2012/01/23 00 UTC: 19.4 S / 39.8 E, MAX WIND=090 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL
CYCLONE
72H: 2012/01/23 12 UTC: 20.1 S / 40.2 E, MAX WIND=095 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL
CYCLONE
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2012/01/24 12 UTC: 21.4 S / 39.4 E, MAX WIND=105 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL
CYCLONE
120H: 2012/01/25 12 UTC: 22.5 S / 37.4 E, MAX WIND=120 KT, VERY INTENSE TROPICAL
CYCLONE
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=4.5
LAST VISIBLE PICTURES SHOW A WARM POINT AND MICRO WAVES CONFIRM THEVERY SMALL SIZE BANDING EYE STRUCTRE OF THE SYSTEM.
AVAILABLE NWP MODELS ARE IN RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE TRACK OF
THE SYSTEM WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS, AT FIRST WEST TO SOUTH-WESTWARD
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE MIDTROPOSPHERIC RIDGE SOUTH OF MADAGASCAR, AND AFTER EAST TO SOUTHEASTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE NEAR EQUATORIAL MIDTROPOSPHERIC RIDGE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM.
BEYOND 48TAU, NWP MODELS ARE MORE DISPERSED. DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE
IN RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT FOR A GLOBAL RECURVEMENT SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTWARD, BUT ENSEMBLE PREDICTION SUGGEST A SOUTH TO SOUTH-SOUTHEAST TRACK.
CURRENT FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE ECMWF ONE.
FOR THE NETX 24 HOURS, PROXIMITY OF THE COAST OF MOZAMBIQUE AND
WEAKENING OF THE OCEANIC ENERGETIC POTENTIAL (SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE
SYSTEM) ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIMITANT FACTORS FOR DEEPENING.
BEYOND TAU 24, SYSTEM SHOULD RECOVER BETTER ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS IN THE LOWER LEVELS. UPPER LEVELS CONDITIONS REMAIN
FAVORABLE AND SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AGAIN REGULARLY.
MOST OF THE NWP MODELS EXCLUDE THE LANDFALL ON THE MOZAMBIQUE
COAST BUT THE REGIONS OF QUELIMANE AND BEIRA SHOULD UNDERGO HEAVY
RAINS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT LEAST.
INHABITANTS OF THIS SECTOR SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS
SYSTEM.

[DanieleItalyRm]

Yes,but Chanda(previous tropical cyclone in Mozambique Channel) was pretty large.Sometimes it covered entire Madagascar.
And Funso is not small.It extends 8 parallels in lgeographic atidude and 10 meridians in geographic longitude.

And here is the latest satellite image of Funso

I don't think.. this storm is small like many channel mozambique tropical storm. The real storm center is approx 200km in diameter, you don't have consider the spiral band. Belonging to some exceptions, I have seen in this area the smallest tropical cyclones (Favio, Bondo, Clovis etc.).



Uploaded with ImageShack.us

[HURAKAN]

But look at the SST, very conducive for tropical cyclone development

[HURAKAN]

eye becoming better organized

[HURAKAN]

WTIO30 FMEE 201906
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 8/8/20112012
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 8 (FUNSO)
2.A POSITION 2012/01/20 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 15 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.3 S / 37.9 E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND THIRTY SEVEN DECIMAL NINE
DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST 3 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/4.5/W 0.5/6 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 973 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 65 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :17 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 130 SW: 120 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 70 SE: 90 SW: 90 NW: 70
48 KT NE: 50 SE: 50 SW: 50 NW: 50
64 KT NE: 20 SE: 20 SW: 20 NW: 20
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1003 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2012/01/21 06 UTC: 18.4 S / 37.7 E, MAX WIND=065 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H: 2012/01/21 18 UTC: 19.0 S / 38.0 E, MAX WIND=065 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
36H: 2012/01/22 06 UTC: 19.2 S / 38.6 E, MAX WIND=075 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
48H: 2012/01/22 18 UTC: 19.3 S / 39.5 E, MAX WIND=085 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
60H: 2012/01/23 06 UTC: 19.9 S / 40.1 E, MAX WIND=095 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL
CYCLONE
72H: 2012/01/23 18 UTC: 20.7 S / 40.3 E, MAX WIND=105 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL
CYCLONE
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2012/01/24 18 UTC: 22.1 S / 39.0 E, MAX WIND=115 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL
CYCLONE
120H: 2012/01/25 18 UTC: 23.1 S / 36.8 E, MAX WIND=120 KT, VERY INTENSE TROPICAL
CYCLONE
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
T=4.0 CI=4.5
THERE IS SOME DOUBT ABOUT STIL CLASSIFIED FUNZO AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE.LATEST MW IMAGERY SUGGEST AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE ALTHOUGH IT
IS NOT CLEAR AT THIS TIME. INTENSITY IS HOLD THE SAME AT THIS TIME.
AVAILABLE NWP MODELS ARE IN RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE TRACK OF
THE SYSTEM WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS, AT FIRST RATHER SLOW DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS, AND AFTER EAST TO SOUTH-EASTWARD UNDER THE STEERING
INFLUENCE OF THE NEAR EQUATORIAL MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE NORTH OF THE
SYSTEM.
BEYOND 48TAU, NWP MODELS ARE MORE DISPERSED. DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE
IN RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT FOR A GLOBAL RECURVEMENT SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTWARD, BUT ENSEMBLE PREDICTION SUGGEST A SOUTH TO SOUTH-SOUTHEAST TRACK.
CURRENT FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE ECMWF ONE.
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS, PROXIMITY OF THE COAST OF MOZAMBIQUE AND
WEAKENING OF THE OCEANIC ENERGETIC POTENTIAL (SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE
SYSTEM) ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIMITANT FACTORS FOR DEEPENING.
BEYOND TAU 24, SYSTEM SHOULD RECOVER BETTER ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS IN THE LOWER LEVELS. UPPER LEVELS CONDITIONS REMAIN
FAVORABLE AND SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AGAIN REGULARLY.
MOST OF THE NWP MODELS EXCLUDE THE LANDFALL ON THE MOZAMBIQUE
COAST AT SHORT RANGE BUT THE REGIONS OF QUELIMANE AND BEIRA SHOULD
UNDERGO HEAVY RAINS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT LEAST.
INHABITANTS OF THIS SECTOR SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS
SYSTEM.

[Chickenzilla]

I don't think.. this storm is small like many channel mozambique tropical storm. The real storm center is approx 200km in diameter, you don't have consider the spiral band. Belonging to some exceptions, I have seen in this area the smallest tropical cyclones (Favio, Bondo, Clovis etc.).

None of them formed in the Mozambique Channel.
Bondo and Clovis
didn't even enter in the Mozambique Channel as a tropical cylone,but Bondo entered as a remnant.
Favio did enter the Mozambique Channel,but it formed outside it and was small even before the entering.BTW,it enlarged after the entering.

Some images of Favio before it entered the Mozambique Channel.It was small,wasn't it?



Uploaded with ImageShack.us

And as I don't want to write an entire post offtopic,here's the current satellite image of Funso


The southern eyewall is still weak.

[HURAKAN]

Latest infrared

[HURAKAN]

WTIO30 FMEE 210050
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 9/8/20112012
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 8 (FUNSO)
2.A POSITION 2012/01/21 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.1 S / 37.7 E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND THIRTY SEVEN DECIMAL SEVEN
DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : QUASI-STATIONNARY
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.5/4.5/S 0.0/6 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 973 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 65 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :24 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 130 SW: 130 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 70 SE: 70 SW: 80 NW: 70
48 KT NE: 50 SE: 50 SW: 50 NW: 50
64 KT NE: 30 SE: 30 SW: 30 NW: 30
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 1200 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2012/01/21 12 UTC: 18.5 S / 38.2 E, MAX WIND=065 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H: 2012/01/22 00 UTC: 18.8 S / 38.7 E, MAX WIND=070 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
36H: 2012/01/22 12 UTC: 19.0 S / 39.5 E, MAX WIND=075 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
48H: 2012/01/23 00 UTC: 19.6 S / 40.3 E, MAX WIND=085 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
60H: 2012/01/23 12 UTC: 20.5 S / 40.1 E, MAX WIND=100 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL
CYCLONE
72H: 2012/01/24 00 UTC: 21.5 S / 39.5 E, MAX WIND=110 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL
CYCLONE
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2012/01/25 00 UTC: 22.3 S / 37.9 E, MAX WIND=100 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL
CYCLONE
120H: 2012/01/26 00 UTC: 22.2 S / 36.2 E, MAX WIND=095 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL
CYCLONE
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
T=4.5- CI=4.5-
STILL SOME DOUBT ABOUT THE CURRENT STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM ... SOME IRIMAGERY BEFORE 00Z SHOW AN INTERMITTENT RAGGED EYE PATTERN WITH VERY
COLD CLOUD TOP ... SO IN LINE WITH ADT AND MW IMAGERY THAT DEPICTS A
WIDER EYE PATTERN THAN PREVIOUSLY (ALTHOUGH A WEAKNESS MAY EXIST IN
THE SOUTHERN EYEWALL), THE PREVIOUS INTENSITY IS MAINTAINED.
LATEST AVAILABLE NWP MODELS SUGGEST NOW THAT THE SYSTEM IS NOW
EMBEDDED WITHIN CONTRADICTORY STEERING FLOW. THEY ALL AGREE TO NOT
TAKE AGAIN SIGNIFICANTLY THE SYSTEM WESTWARDS. AS THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE WEAKENS SOUTHWARDS, THE MOVEMENT OF FUNSO SHOULD RESUME
TODAY ON A EAST TO SOUTH-EASTWARDS COMPONENT UNDER THE STEERING
INFLUENCE OF THE NEAR EQUATORIAL MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE NORTH OF THE
SYSTEM.
ON MONDAY 23, THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE SHOULD BUILD TO THE EAST AND
TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM AND WILL RESULT ON A POLEWARDS MOTION
FOR THE SYSTEM. AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD (DAY 4 AND DAY 5), MOST
OF THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCES SUGGEST A NEW ZONAL TRACK TOWARDS THAT
SOULD BRING THE SYSTEM OVER THE MOZAMBICAN COASTS BETWEEN BEIRA AND
INHAMBANE.
AN ALTERNATE SCENARI, SUGGEST BY THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE FORECAST COULD
BE A WEAKER THAN EXPECTED MID LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF
THE SYSTEM AND A CONTINUING POLAWARDS TRACK AT LONG RANGE THAT WILL
REMAIN OVERSEA ...
AS LONG AS THE SYSTEM MOVE LITTLE, THE WEAKENING OF THE OCEANIC
ENERGETIC POTENTIAL AND POTENTIALLY ON GOING INNER CORE PROCESS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE LIMITANT FACTORS FOR DEEPENING.
WITH THE RESUME OF THE MOVEMENT, THE SYSTEM SHOULD RECOVER BETTER
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS IN THE LOWER LEVELS. UPPER LEVELS CONDITIONS
REMAIN FAVORABLE AND SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AGAIN REGULARLY.
OHC MAP SUGGEST THAT THE SYSTEM COULD MOVE OVER VERY WARM WATER
AROUND 20S. THE OHC SHOULD BE LOWER AFTERTHAT IF THE SYSTEM MOVES
CLOSER TO THE MOZAMBICAN COASTS AS EXPECTED. THEREFORE, THE PEAK
INTENSITY IS SOONER AND A LITTLE BIT LOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IN
AGREEMENT OR JUST ABOVE THE GUIDANCES.
MOST OF THE NWP MODELS EXCLUDE THE LANDFALL ON THE MOZAMBIQUE
COAST AT SHORT RANGE. HOWEVER WITH THE ACTUAL GROWING TREND OF THE
INNER CORE SEEN ON MW IMAGERY, IT IS LIKELY THAT DAMAGING WINDS HAS
REACHED THE SHORE NEAR QUELIMANE.
INHABITANTS OF THIS SECTOR, BUT IN A GENERAL WAY ALL INHABITANTS OF THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CHANNEL (INCLUDING EUROPA ISLAND AND THE
SOUTHWESTERN COASTS OF MADAGASCAR) SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

[HURAKAN]

continues to become better organized

[CrazyC83]

Looks to be at least a solid Cat 2 (1-min) right now. Looking at that, I would guess 85 kt.

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[HURAKAN]

Latest infrared

[HURAKAN]

Latest visible

[Chickenzilla]

As of now,Funso has probably peaked.The southwestern eyewall is weak.

[Crostorm]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 21 JAN 2012 Time : 083000 UTC
Lat : 17:56:56 S Lon : 37:31:23 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.8 / 944.3mb/109.8kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.8 5.9 5.9

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 17 km

Center Temp : -3.2C Cloud Region Temp : -66.3C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS

Ocean Basin : INDIAN
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 110km
- Environmental MSLP : 1003mb

Satellite Viewing Angle : 30.6 degrees

****************************************************

[HURAKAN]

WTIO30 FMEE 211331
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 11/8/20112012
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 8 (FUNSO)
2.A POSITION 2012/01/21 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.0 S / 37.7 E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND THIRTY SEVEN DECIMAL SEVEN
DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : QUASI-STATIONARY
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.0/5.5/W 0.5/6 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 952 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 90 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :19 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 130 SW: 130 NW: 70
34 KT NE: 90 SE: 90 SW: 90 NW: 60
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 60
64 KT NE: 40 SE: 40 SW: 40 NW: 40
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1003 HPA / 800 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2012/01/22 00 UTC: 18.2 S / 38.0 E, MAX WIND=085 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H: 2012/01/22 12 UTC: 18.5 S / 38.7 E, MAX WIND=080 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
36H: 2012/01/23 00 UTC: 19.1 S / 39.5 E, MAX WIND=080 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
48H: 2012/01/23 12 UTC: 20.1 S / 39.7 E, MAX WIND=085 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
60H: 2012/01/24 00 UTC: 21.3 S / 39.1 E, MAX WIND=090 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL
CYCLONE
72H: 2012/01/24 12 UTC: 22.1 S / 38.3 E, MAX WIND=100 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL
CYCLONE
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2012/01/25 12 UTC: 22.4 S / 37.0 E, MAX WIND=100 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL
CYCLONE
120H: 2012/01/26 12 UTC: 22.3 S / 35.8 E, MAX WIND=080 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
T=5.0+ CI=5.5
SYSTEM IS STILL QUASI STATIONARY AND SHOWS SOME SIGNS OF WEAKNESS
LIKELY DUE TO COOLING WATER ON WHICH IT IS FOR 12 HOURS. DT AVERAGE IS5.0+ ON 6 HOURS.
LATEST AVAILABLE NWP MODELS STILL SUGGEST THAT SYSTEM SHOULD RESTART
EASTWARD TO SOUTH-EASTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE NEAR
EQUATORIAL MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE EXISTING NORTH OF THE SYSTEM. FUNSO
MIGHT KEEP THIS TRACK WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS. WITH RESTART OF
MOVEMENT, IT IS EXPECTED THAT SYSTEM INTENSITY SHOULD REMAIN CLOSE TO
THE INTENSE CYCLONE STAGE WITH WARMER WATER AND UPPER LEVEL
CONDITIONS REMAINING GOOD.
ON MONDAY 23, THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE SHOULD BUILD TO THE EAST AND
TO THE SOUTH-EAST OF THE SYSTEM AND WILL RESULT ON A POLEWARD MOTION
FOR THE SYSTEM. THE RECURVE IS MORE OR LESS RAPID BY DIFFERENT MODELS.
AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD (DAY 4 AND DAY 5), MOST OF THE
NUMERICAL GUIDANCES SUGGEST A WESTWARD TRACK THAT SOULD BRING THE
SYSTEM TOWARD THE MOZAMBICAN COASTS BETWEEN BEIRA AND INHAMBANE.
AN ALTERNATE SCENARIO, SUGGESTED BY THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE FORECAST,
COULD BE A WEAKER THAN EXPECTED MID LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM AND CONSEQUENTLY A CONTINUING POLEWARD TRACK AT
LONG RANGE THAT WILL REMAIN OVERSEA.
ECMWF SUGGEST THAT SYSTEM WILL INTENSIFY AGAIN BETWEEN MONDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH OCEAN HEAT CONTENT.
INHABITANTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CHANNEL (INCLUDING EUROPA
ISLAND AND THE SOUTH-WESTERN COASTS OF MADAGASCAR) SHOULD CLOSELY
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

[HURAKAN]

Interacting with land appears to have weakened this system

[HURAKAN]

WTXS32 PGTW 210900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (FUNSO) WARNING NR 006//
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (ETHEL) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW)
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (FUNSO) WARNING NR 006
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
210600Z --- NEAR 18.0S 37.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 01 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.0S 37.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 18.1S 38.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 18.5S 38.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 19.0S 39.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 19.6S 39.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 21.0S 38.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 22.0S 37.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 22.6S 36.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
210900Z POSITION NEAR 18.0S 37.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 08S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 555 NM NORTH-
NORTHEAST OF MAPUTO, MOZAMBIQUE, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 01
KNOT OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES THAT TC 08S HAS UNDERGONE RAPID INTENSIFICATION
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS AND NOW HAS A WELL DEFINED 8 NM DIAMETER
EYE. DESPITE ITS PROXIMITY TO THE AFRICAN CONTINENT (APPROXIMATELY
25 NM), LAND INTERACTION IS HAVING MINIMAL IMPACT. ADDITIONALLY, AS
TC 08S TRACKS SOUTHEASTWARD BACK OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF THE
MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL, IT IS EXPECTED TO FURTHER INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY,
PEAKING AT 115 KNOTS. A 210501Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE DEPICTS TIGHTLY-
CURVED BANDING AND VIGOROUS EYEWALL CONVECTION. THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 102 KNOTS. TC 08S
IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A WEAK, YET COMPLEX STEERING ENVIRONMENT AND HAS
BEEN QUASI-STATIONARY AS IT IS CONSTRAINED BY SUBTROPICAL RIDGES
(STR) POSITIONED TO THE EAST AND POLEWARD. THE RECENT 500MB ANALYSIS
CONTINUES TO SHOW A WEAK TROUGH MOVING EASTWARD OVER SOUTH AFRICA.
AS THE STR TO THE SOUTH WEAKENS WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH, TC 08S IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD UNDER THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE EASTERN STR, WHICH IS EXPECTED TO BUILD
OVER MADAGASCAR AFTER TAU 24 NOW THAT TC 07S (ETHEL) HAS BEGUN TO RE-
CURVE AWAY FROM THE REGION. THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO
RAPIDLY PROPAGATE EASTWARD, AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO DEEPEN ENOUGH TO
PROVIDE A RE-CURVE MECHANISM FOR TC 08S. FOLLOWING THE TROUGH
PASSAGE, THE STR SHOULD RE-BUILD SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM IN THE EXTENDED
TAUS. IN TURN, THIS SHOULD PROVIDE A WESTWARD STEERING INFLUENCE
BACK TOWARD MOZAMBIQUE, HOWEVER THE TRACK IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SLOW
IN THIS WEAK ENVIRONMENT WITH SEVERAL COMPETING FACTORS. DESPITE THE
FORECAST COMPLEXITY, NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT
WITH THIS SCENARIO, HOWEVER THE NOGAPS AND GFS MODELS SUGGEST
ANOTHER STRONGER TROUGH MAY START TO MOVE THROUGH AT THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD AND PREVENT TC 08S FROM MAKING LANDFALL. THIS
FORECAST IS IN-LINE WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 210600Z IS 21 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 212100Z AND
220900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (ETHEL) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW)
FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

[CrazyC83]

Any surface data from the area?

[Chacor]

WTIO30 FMEE 211859
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 12/8/20112012
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 8 (FUNSO)
2.A POSITION 2012/01/21 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 21 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.2 S / 37.8 E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND THIRTY SEVEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : EAST-SOUTH-EAST 2 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/5.0/W 1.0/6 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 954 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 75 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :19 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 130 SW: 130 NW: 70
34 KT NE: 90 SE: 90 SW: 90 NW: 60
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 60
64 KT NE: 40 SE: 40 SW: 40 NW: 40
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1002 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2012/01/22 06 UTC: 18.4 S / 38.3 E, MAX WIND=085 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H: 2012/01/22 18 UTC: 18.8 S / 39.0 E, MAX WIND=085 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
36H: 2012/01/23 06 UTC: 19.7 S / 39.5 E, MAX WIND=085 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
48H: 2012/01/23 18 UTC: 20.7 S / 39.3 E, MAX WIND=090 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
60H: 2012/01/24 06 UTC: 21.8 S / 38.5 E, MAX WIND=095 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
72H: 2012/01/24 18 UTC: 22.3 S / 37.9 E, MAX WIND=100 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2012/01/25 18 UTC: 22.5 S / 36.5 E, MAX WIND=110 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
120H: 2012/01/26 18 UTC: 22.3 S / 35.6 E, MAX WIND=090 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
T=4.0 AND CI=5.0-
CLOUD PATTERN HAS SHOWN SHARP SIGNS OF WEAKENING OF FUNSO DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS WITH A WARMING
CENTRAL OVERCAST. ACCORDING TO THE LAST ANIMATED PICTURES FUNSO SHOULD MOVE SLOWLY SOUTH-EASTWARD
NOW AND THE CURVING BAND PATTERN IS IMPROVING. IT IS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE THE CENTRE PRECISELY.
FUNSO SHOULD TRACK SLOWLY SOUTH-EASTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE NEAR EQUATORIAL MID-
TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE EXISTING NORTH OF THE SYSTEM WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS. WITH RESTART OF MOVEMENT,
SYSTEM INTENSITY SHOULD REMAIN CLOSE TO THE INTENSE CYCLONE STAGE WITH WARMER WATER AND UPPER LEVEL
CONDITIONS REMAINING GOOD.
ON MONDAY 23, THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE SHOULD BUILD TO THE EAST AND TO THE SOUTH-EAST OF THE SYSTEM
AND WILL RESULT ON A POLEWARD MOTION FOR THE SYSTEM. THE RECURVE IS MORE OR LESS RAPID BY DIFFERENT
MODELS. AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD (DAY 4 AND DAY 5), MOST OF THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCES
SUGGEST A WESTWARD TRACK THAT SHOULD BRING THE SYSTEM TOWARD THE MOZAMBICAN COASTS BETWEEN BEIRA
AND INHAMBANE.
AN ALTERNATE SCENARIO, SUGGESTED BY THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE FORECAST, COULD BE A WEAKER THAN EXPECTED
MID LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE SOUTH-EAST OF THE SYSTEM AND CONSEQUENTLY A CONTINUING POLEWARD
TRACK AT LONG RANGE THAT WILL REMAIN OVERSEA.
ECMWF SUGGEST THAT SYSTEM WILL INTENSIFY AGAIN BETWEEN MONDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH OCEAN HEAT
CONTENT.
INHABITANTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CHANNEL (INCLUDING EUROPA ISLAND AND THE SOUTH-WESTERN
COASTS OF MADAGASCAR) SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.