ATL: DEBBY - Post-Tropical

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
720 PM EDT MON JUN 25 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RUSKIN HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
WESTERN POLK COUNTY IN FLORIDA.
SOUTHEASTERN HILLSBOROUGH COUNTY IN FLORIDA.
NORTHERN MANATEE COUNTY IN FLORIDA.

* UNTIL 745 PM EDT

* AT 714 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
TORNADO 9 MILES SOUTHWEST OF FORT LONESOME...OR 17 MILES SOUTH OF
FISH HAWK...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
FORT LONESOME.
ALAFIA RIVER STATE PARK.

[MGC]

Looks to me that the center is just offshore of Cape St George.....still meandering about. Impressive rainfall totals. Debby sure has pulled down some dry continental air over Mississippi today....beautiful blue sky today. Hope everone over in Florida stays safe in the flood......MGC

The above is the opinion of MGC and not an official forecast.

[CrazyC83]

URNT15 KNHC 252328
AF309 0504A DEBBY HDOB 07 20120625
232100 2930N 08633W 8358 01575 0020 +163 //// 035036 037 021 001 01
232130 2929N 08631W 8359 01571 0019 +163 +159 033039 040 020 000 00
232200 2929N 08629W 8356 01573 0018 +163 +152 031038 039 020 000 00
232230 2928N 08627W 8367 01563 0019 +160 +148 031038 039 020 001 00
232300 2928N 08625W 8368 01561 0013 +165 +151 031040 041 019 001 00
232330 2927N 08623W 8365 01561 0012 +167 +149 032041 042 022 000 00
232400 2927N 08621W 8364 01562 0013 +162 //// 033042 042 023 001 01
232430 2926N 08620W 8368 01555 0011 +164 //// 035040 041 024 000 01
232500 2926N 08618W 8367 01558 0008 +167 //// 035040 040 026 000 01
232530 2926N 08616W 8365 01557 0004 +171 +165 034040 040 028 000 00
232600 2925N 08614W 8368 01553 0004 +170 +167 032039 040 029 000 00
232630 2925N 08612W 8367 01554 0006 +165 //// 030039 040 027 002 01
232700 2924N 08610W 8368 01553 0002 +171 +158 029042 042 027 001 00
232730 2924N 08608W 8365 01555 0002 +174 +145 029042 042 029 000 00
232800 2923N 08606W 8368 01550 0002 +169 +150 032043 043 028 001 00
232830 2923N 08604W 8426 01490 0003 +168 +155 029042 042 029 002 00
232900 2922N 08602W 8460 01455 0002 +165 +161 032043 044 030 000 00
232930 2922N 08601W 8462 01449 9999 +166 +156 034042 042 031 000 00
233000 2921N 08559W 8461 01446 9998 +162 //// 030046 047 032 001 01
233030 2921N 08557W 8462 01444 9996 +162 //// 028048 049 032 001 01
$$
;

[weatherSnoop]

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[Cyclenall]

22:31z VIS / IR (Day / Night)

Where does this come from? Never seen this "product" of satellite imagery.

[weatherSnoop]

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Still catching up

[jabman98]

So Debby is now forecast to cross Florida and then turn into a hurricane? Am I understanding that correctly?

[Kingarabian]

So Debby is now forecast to cross Florida and then turn into a hurricane? Am I understanding that correctly?

The Euro agrees with that solution.

[CrazyC83]

URNT15 KNHC 252338
AF309 0504A DEBBY HDOB 08 20120625
233100 2920N 08555W 8459 01445 9993 +163 //// 030051 052 033 002 01
233130 2920N 08553W 8464 01435 9993 +159 //// 030054 055 033 000 01
233200 2919N 08551W 8457 01441 9987 +161 //// 030056 057 034 000 01
233230 2919N 08550W 8465 01429 9982 +161 //// 030056 057 031 003 01
233300 2918N 08548W 8465 01426 //// +159 //// 033059 059 032 001 01
233330 2918N 08546W 8458 01432 //// +159 //// 033057 057 035 001 01
233400 2918N 08545W 8463 01425 //// +162 //// 034056 056 033 003 01
233430 2917N 08543W 8461 01426 //// +160 //// 036055 056 034 001 01
233500 2917N 08542W 8463 01419 //// +160 //// 034055 056 035 003 01
233530 2916N 08540W 8460 01421 //// +161 //// 033054 056 038 003 01
233600 2916N 08539W 8466 01415 //// +160 //// 032051 053 037 004 01
233630 2916N 08537W 8462 01419 //// +165 //// 035048 050 038 003 01
233700 2915N 08535W 8446 01434 //// +164 //// 031046 048 036 004 01
233730 2915N 08534W 8463 01415 //// +172 //// 027043 045 038 004 01
233800 2914N 08532W 8461 01415 //// +179 //// 032038 042 041 003 01
233830 2914N 08530W 8466 01409 9948 +185 //// 038034 035 042 002 01
233900 2913N 08529W 8462 01413 9946 +186 //// 037035 036 042 002 05
233930 2913N 08527W 8461 01414 //// +184 //// 035037 038 039 004 01
234000 2912N 08525W 8462 01410 //// +182 //// 037038 040 040 003 01
234030 2911N 08524W 8448 01424 //// +182 //// 037036 038 039 001 01
$$
;

59 kt FL, 42 kt SFMR. Pressure appears to be 994-995mb.

[ozonepete]

So Debby is now forecast to cross Florida and then turn into a hurricane? Am I understanding that correctly?

Expected to cross Florida later in the week (maybe a little sooner) and then intensify to a TS, possibly, east of JAX, but where did you hear hurricane? NHC certainly hasn't said that.

[weatherSnoop]

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[weatherSnoop]

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[ozonepete]

Pretty impressive restrengthening today.

[Cyclenall]

A 5 yr old with a Etch-A-Sketch would come up with as good a solution as NOGAPS!

No, that's the LBAR. I don't know where all this NOGAPS bashing came from all of a sudden this season because I don't recall so much dislike previously. Its not THAT bad.

wouldnt it be funny if all the models switched back to the west.....

That's what I was thinking too, it would be the funniest thing one can imagine.

should be in the global model discussion in Talkin Tropics....NOGAPS not so great at sniffing out development.

Its not great at that but when it does show a system it rises the chances quickly if other models were on to it.

[Noah]

Came home from work to find my ceiling attic door blew open and partial power out.. 35mph all day with little rain..
I just never seen such rain and squally weather sinnce all the hurricanes of 2004.

[cycloneye]

WTNT34 KNHC 252352
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM DEBBY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 10A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042012
700 PM CDT MON JUN 25 2012

...INLAND AND COASTAL FLOOD THREAT TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS ACROSS PORTIONS OF FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND NORTH FLORIDA...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.1N 85.2W
ABOUT 30 MI...45 KM SSW OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.29 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE FLORIDA GULF COAST FROM DESTIN TO ENGLEWOOD

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
DEBBY IS A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE...WITH STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY
RAINS OCCURRING AT LARGE DISTANCES FROM THE CENTER.

AT AT 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DEBBY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.2 WEST. DEBBY HAS
BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. SOME SLOW AND
POSSIBLE ERRATIC MOTION TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR EAST-NORTHEAST IS
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230 MILES...370 KM
MAINLY TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. HOWEVER...DOPPLER RADAR AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS IN THE WESTERN BIG BEND AREA OF FLORIDA
INDICATE WIND GUSTS GREATER THAN 60 MPH...115 KM/H...ARE LIKELY
OCCURRING OVER THE COASTAL AREAS FROM APALACHICOLA NORTHEASTWARD TO
SHELL POINT.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 992 MB...29.29 INCHES
BASED ON REPORTS FROM A NEARBY NOAA COASTAL MARINE STATION.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF
THE FLORIDA GULF COAST TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.

STORM SURGE...ALTHOUGH DEBBY HAS WEAKENED SOME TODAY...COASTAL
FLOODING IS NOT YET DIMINISHING. THE COMBINATION OF A STORM SURGE
AND THE TIDE WILL CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE
FLOODED BY RISING WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING
DEPTHS ABOVE GROUND AT THE TIME OF THE NEXT HIGH TIDE THIS
EVENING...

APALACHEE BAY TO WACCASASSA BAY...3 TO 5 FT
FLORIDA WEST COAST SOUTH OF WACCASASSA BAY...1 TO 3 FT

THE DEEPEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN AREAS OF
ONSHORE FLOW. SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE
TIMING OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER
SHORT DISTANCES. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE
SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE.

RAINFALL...DEBBY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE THE FOLLOWING ADDITIONAL
RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...6 TO 12 INCHES
ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA...4 TO 8 INCHES ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA AND
EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA...AND 3 TO 5 INCHES IN SOUTH FLORIDA
AND EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA. ISOLATED STORM TOTAL
AMOUNTS OF 25 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN NORTH FLORIDA.

TORNADOES...A FEW TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE TODAY ACROSS THE EASTERN
FLORIDA PANHANDLE...THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...AND SOUTHERN GEORGIA.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 PM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[cycloneye]

SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.1N 85.2W
ABOUT 30 MI...45 KM SSW OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.29 INCHES

[CrazyC83]

AF309 0504A DEBBY HDOB 09 20120625
234100 2910N 08522W 8467 01401 //// +179 //// 034033 037 036 001 01
234130 2910N 08520W 8463 01402 9936 +180 //// 029028 030 025 004 01
234200 2909N 08519W 8462 01403 9934 +184 //// 034025 026 016 001 01
234230 2908N 08517W 8459 01402 9934 +181 //// 028020 022 012 001 01
234300 2908N 08515W 8461 01402 9937 +180 //// 031016 018 004 000 01
234330 2907N 08514W 8460 01402 9934 +183 +181 031009 012 002 000 00
234400 2907N 08512W 8465 01401 9934 +187 +177 059005 007 013 001 03
234430 2906N 08510W 8459 01405 9931 +193 +171 181008 012 019 000 00
234500 2905N 08508W 8462 01405 9932 +191 +179 190017 018 023 001 00
234530 2905N 08507W 8463 01404 9935 +190 +184 180018 019 018 001 00
234600 2904N 08505W 8461 01406 9936 +188 +186 180019 020 012 001 00
234630 2904N 08503W 8461 01408 9940 +181 //// 184018 019 006 000 01
234700 2903N 08502W 8460 01407 9941 +182 //// 186018 018 002 000 01
234730 2902N 08500W 8458 01410 9938 +186 +179 187020 020 001 001 00
234800 2902N 08458W 8462 01408 9939 +185 +182 187023 024 002 002 00
234830 2901N 08456W 8461 01407 //// +172 //// 187019 022 002 001 05
234900 2900N 08455W 8459 01409 //// +163 //// 193016 018 012 003 01
234930 2859N 08454W 8463 01405 //// +168 //// 198021 022 016 003 01
235000 2858N 08453W 8457 01409 //// +175 //// 200020 021 014 003 01
235030 2856N 08452W 8464 01403 9941 +177 //// 192021 022 015 002 01
$$

Pressure 993mb. Center at 29.1N 85.2W.

[MGC]

Assuming Debby makes it across Florida as a tropical system, there is plenty of warm Atlantic waters ahead....no telling how strong Debby will get unless the Debby is absorbed by a non tropical frontal low or such.....MGC

The above is the opinion of MGC and not an offical forecast.

[weatherSnoop]

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