ATL: DEBBY - Post-Tropical

[Peach]

No wind yet in Baker County, Florida but 5+ inches of rain, so far, a band is supposed to hit soon, radar showing the worst here around 8 pm. Dark skies, deep gray with a touch of green. Flood & tornado warnings ongoing. Not as much water as Beryl yet, more than Bonnie, I believe it was, in 2004.

[Aric Dunn]

Looking at NASA GHCC, the broad center hasn't moved...but there was a vort that rotated around up to the north right to the edge of the convection, and it is now dropping back south again (also of note, it looks like that trip into the convection may have tightened that vort up). Could this vort, as it drops southward again, be a focus for finally getting some convection back over the water? Cloud cover is quickly increasing and thickening over/around it as it drops southwards.

yeah it definitely did a cyclonic loop. will see if drags enough moisture back down.

[northjaxpro]

Looking at NASA GHCC, the broad center hasn't moved...but there was a vort that rotated around up to the north right to the edge of the convection, and it is now dropping back south again (also of note, it looks like that trip into the convection may have tightened that vort up). Could this vort, as it drops southward again, be a focus for finally getting some convection back over the water? Cloud cover is quickly increasing and thickening over/around it as it drops southwards.

Well, as you and Aric have pointed out, if the center is drifting back south again, that to me would possibly signal that Debby may be just making a good attempt to fire convection near that COC.

[StormTracker]

Hmmmm, that's strange! Haven't heard from or about some guy named "Bones" for the last 6-8 pages! It ain't over til it's over! Just sayin', now back on topic...

[stormhunter7]

anyone think the low level center is pulling the convection to it now? just of Franklin County

[ROCK]

Hmmmm, that's strange! Haven't heard from or about some guy named "Bones" for the last 6-8 pages! It ain't over til it's over! Just sayin', now back on topic...

oh hes warming up....just waiting for the sun to go down...

[brunota2003]

Looking at the radar, rain is starting to move offshore southwards, too.

[cycloneye]

Next mission departs at 6:45 PM EDT or 5:45 PM CDT.

TROPICAL STORM DEBBY
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70 --
A. 26/0000Z, 0600Z
B. AFXXX 0504A DEBBY
C. 25/2245Z
D. 28.5N 86.2W
E. 25/2315Z TO 26/0600Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

[Aric Dunn]

Looking at the radar, rain is starting to move offshore southwards, too.

yeah its trying to pull it down but will it lead to any convection firing over the actual center.

[OuterBanker]

Hmmm, seems that every run on every model changes. Will Debby go down as the most unpredictable storm ever. If I remember correctly wasn't Isabel was within 100 miles more than a week out.

Debby has been anybodys guess from the begining

[crimi481]

Its an "almost" - as there is some shear coming up from south Gulf - over Center
Looks like it is trying to shear and push high clouds north -fighting attempt to go south in the center?

[bayoubebe]

This board is getting crazy now a days. I woke up and all this talk on how the storm is DEAD. With a tropical low clearly still spinning over 80 + degree water temp and yes NAKED but still hanging in there and people are saying it's dead. Wind in tampa area has been staedy but more sustained than last two days. We got some big gusts yesterday and last night with the squalls but today a little more sustained.

water temps all over gulf are 80+ degrees still, there is no upwelling.

no landfall either...wind is still se, e

I think if you will go back and look, the people who were saying it was dead, later came back either with questions of "can this strengthen to a hurricane?" or pretty much saying they had no clue. For the most part, long time members ignored them. They did prove that they need to post a disclaimer with their posts though, as some peole took the clueless ones as knowledgeable people it seems.

Not everyone on here is a pro met. If the board was only for those who had a "clue" then there wouldn't be as many members or posts. I, for one, enjoy LEARNING here. Instead of ignoring the "clueless" it would be nice if those who had a clue would answer questions or make corrections in a mannerly way. Then, the "clueless" posts would not get repeated. Is the EURO considered "clueless" now since they predicted Debby to hit Texas?
Just my two cents.

As far as Debby and comments being made, I think MANY pro and non pro have swinged their predictions. How could you not with a storm like Debby!? This has been a very interesting storm.

To the Floridians, stay safe. YOur posts are knowledgable, interesting, and much appreciated. We are lucky here to get reports first hand. Thank you.

[TTARider]

I think if you will go back and look, the people who were saying it was dead, later came back either with questions of "can this strengthen to a hurricane?" or pretty much saying they had no clue. For the most part, long time members ignored them. They did prove that they need to post a disclaimer with their posts though, as some peole took the clueless ones as knowledgeable people it seems.

wow... way to sound elitist.

[LSU2001]

This is not the first time nor the last that a storm is declared dead only to resurrect a bit. I am kinda with Rock in that once the sun goes down we may see the convection really die off. I personally think we need to pay attention to the storm and not get consumed with calling other posters out. This forum is too important to get off into petty squabbles!!

I find that this is by far the best tropical board on the net and the opinions expressed here have helped me make good, informed decisions concerning tropical weather for quite a few years now.
Now can we please discuss the storm?
Tim

[Aric Dunn]

some doppler estimates within that area of convection are pushing 19 inches for storm totals. !!

with the last 3 hours at 7+ inches !! that is going to cause some serious flooding.

[tropicwatch]

The radar out of tallahassee is giving a strange appearance to the movement on showers considering where the center is suspected to be or it is just an eddy.

Tallahassee Radar

[WilmingtonSandbar]

I think if you will go back and look, the people who were saying it was dead, later came back either with questions of "can this strengthen to a hurricane?" or pretty much saying they had no clue. For the most part, long time members ignored them. They did prove that they need to post a disclaimer with their posts though, as some peole took the clueless ones as knowledgeable people it seems.

wow... way to sound elitist.

My point being, if you are not a pro-met or have extensive knowledge, you should not make blanket statements like, "She's dead Jim". Especially without having a disclaimer that you are not a pro-met, and it is just your opinion. there are plenty of people here, who are trying to learn and by all means ask questions, I know I ask my fair share, but don't make predictions or statements as fact, unless you are qualified, because those of us learning or just quickly checking in may take it as fact and have wrong information. It has been a long standing policy to put a disclaimer on any post that predicts what is going on with the storm. The majority of those who posted that it was dead this morning did not have that disclaimer, while the pro-mets and those with knowledge were warning against calling it so soon. Elitist? If following the rules and expecting the same of my fellow board members is elitist, then I am elitist. And I am not a pro-met, this is just my opinion.

[trave2]

I would hate to be near the Apalachicola National Forest right now, that vort that came onshore is a clear S on radar out of Tallahassee Radar

[Aric Dunn]

The radar out of tallahassee is giving a strange appearance to the movement on showers considering where the center is suspected to be or it is just an eddy.

Tallahassee Radar

its mostly due to the shear not allowing the convection to really wrap and and build south.

[cycloneye]

4 PM CDT advisory makes her a storm again after she moves thru Northern Florida Penninsula.