ATL: DEBBY - Post-Tropical

[Stormcenter]

Agree. IMO

Looks to me like it's making a counter-clockwise loop. Just imho.

[ROCK]

If you look at the gfs (it's had this storms # all along) that is a scarry picture if it comes true. Just sitting there drifting for days on end, the west coast of florida will have some new coastline. This coast can just barely handle 2 days of 10ft @ 8 sec swell

let's not get carried away...

[northjaxpro]

LLC did get repositioned north closer to the flare.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/product ... 251345.jpg

Doesn't appear to have made landfall but very good jump north,,,

Debby continuing the center relocation process, much as she has done its entire lifespan.

I would guess that the centwer is probably within 20-25 miles of the coastline just south of Apalachicola.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of this poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Aric Dunn]

well looking at offshore pressures ( still lower offshore) and wind reports still appears to be just offshore.

KAAF reporting NE at NE at 35 gusting to 66.

thats Apalachicola

[tallywx]

Apalachicola airport must have just experienced some kind of mesovortex. Wind out of the northeast gusting to 66 mph.

3:53 PM 73.9 °F 72.0 °F 93% 29.42 in 0.5 miles NE 34.5 mph 65.6 mph 0.53 in Fog , Rain Heavy Rain
METAR KAAF 251953Z AUTO 04030G57KT 1/2SM +RA FG SQ FEW005 OVC012 23/22 A2942 RMK AO2 PK WND 04057/1951 PRESRR SLP963 P0053 T02330222

[ROCK]

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/dataphod1 ... 5god26.png


she is on solar power now....

[northjaxpro]

That report clues me that the center is just south of Apalachicola Aric.



The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of this poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Aric Dunn]

Somewhere in the circle.

[crimi481]

Not clear how NHC (or me) can identify which of those circling Low's - is Debby
Thinking Deb is storm with very large center - and it weakened some -started spitting out those small low's?
he big Center expanded some -creating larger area of TS winds?
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html

Disclaimer: Just a guess - based on observation of Sat loops

[northjaxpro]

Aric, that looks to be about right.

[Aric Dunn]

Still just looks like cyclonic loop, lets see what the NHC says.

[Aric Dunn]

actually the last frame to come from sat clearly shows the center dropping back in a southerly direction.

[EmeraldCoast93]

Just got some tropical storm force gusts at Eglin AFB - outside of tropical storm warnings

[CrazyC83]

Just got some tropical storm force gusts at Eglin AFB - outside of tropical storm warnings

Unless the sustained go higher, a warning there would not be warranted. I'd want to see sustained at least near 35.

[tropicwatch]

She still fighting some dry air.

Water Vapor Imagery Loop

[northjaxpro]

Well, Debby does have an expansive wind field out in the GOM containing tropical storm force winds, extending all the way down the west coast of the peninsula.

[Aric Dunn]

actually the last frame to come from sat clearly shows the center dropping back in a southerly direction.

[Aric Dunn]

on a side note. this is the closest the convection has been to the center almost its whole life.

[brunota2003]

Looking at NASA GHCC, the broad center hasn't moved...but there was a vort that rotated around up to the north right to the edge of the convection, and it is now dropping back south again (also of note, it looks like that trip into the convection may have tightened that vort up). Could this vort, as it drops southward again, be a focus for finally getting some convection back over the water? Cloud cover is quickly increasing and thickening over/around it as it drops southwards.

[Stormcenter]

It sure "looks" like Debby took a very slight jog westward in the last few frames. IMO
Anyway she still looks pretty bad.

http://weather.rap.ucar.edu/satellite/d ... duration=8