ATL: LESLIE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#361 Postby **ozonepete** » Thu Aug 30, 2012 7:45 pm

SouthDadeFish wrote:Fresh microwave:
http://img211.imageshack.us/img211/5773 ... mposit.jpg

Thanks, SouthDade! Very nice for us to get a good perspective of the internals.

#362 Postby **cycloneye** » Thu Aug 30, 2012 7:49 pm

SouthDadeFish wrote:Fresh microwave:

http://img211.imageshack.us/img211/5773 ... mposit.jpg

Still the center is not in the middle of convection but on the east side.

#363 Postby **brunota2003** » Thu Aug 30, 2012 8:06 pm

Nothing to show any impending RI in the near future (next 24 hours or so).

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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

#364 Postby **fci** » Thu Aug 30, 2012 8:10 pm

mulaman984 wrote:What are the chances this thing does not turn and enters GOM? Is e NHC ever this wrong ?

Not often at all.
Plus the chances are slim. But I ALWAYS follow until I KNOW it wont happen.
For both of us, once the recurve ACTUALLY occurs; then we can totally rest easy.
I am very "comfortable" with the forecast at this point but I will be following periodically to make sure.

#365 Postby **ozonepete** » Thu Aug 30, 2012 8:14 pm

cycloneye wrote:
SouthDadeFish wrote:Fresh microwave:

http://img211.imageshack.us/img211/5773 ... mposit.jpg

Still the center is not in the middle of convection but on the east side.

Yup, Luis. There's some light to moderate easterly shear.

Hey Its Me · #366 Postby **Hey Its Me** » Thu Aug 30, 2012 8:27 pm

Looks like Buoy 41041 just went from NW/NNW to WSW...

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41041

hurricanes1234 · #367 Postby **hurricanes1234** » Thu Aug 30, 2012 8:37 pm

Hey Its Me wrote:Looks like Buoy 41041 just went from NW/NNW to WSW...

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41041

Welcome to Storm2k! Hope you enjoy your time here. :wink:

#368 Postby **ozonepete** » Thu Aug 30, 2012 8:38 pm

Re: that buoy: So southern section of the center probably went over or was going over it. (WSW winds were only 11.7 knots.) Lowest pressure was 1004 mb. Winds should stay WSW or SW and increase now.

Lol, yeah, I forgot, WELCOME Hey Its Me!

Hey Its Me · #369 Postby **Hey Its Me** » Thu Aug 30, 2012 8:44 pm

hurricanes1234 wrote:
Hey Its Me wrote:Looks like Buoy 41041 just went from NW/NNW to WSW...

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41041

Welcome to Storm2k! Hope you enjoy your time here.

Thank you all... I'm actually not "new" to storm2k, it's just been so long (think HC Ike days) since I've logged on here, I had to setup my account again. I miss TeamSpeak! lol That and Mr. "Tampa Bay" (ok, not that last one).

hurricanes1234 · #370 Postby **hurricanes1234** » Thu Aug 30, 2012 8:46 pm

Hey Its Me wrote:
hurricanes1234 wrote:
Hey Its Me wrote:Looks like Buoy 41041 just went from NW/NNW to WSW...

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41041

Welcome to Storm2k! Hope you enjoy your time here.

Thank you all... I'm actually not "new" to storm2k, it's just been so long (think HC Ike days) since I've logged on here, I had to setup my account again. I miss TeamSpeak! lol That and Mr. "Tampa Bay" (ok, not that last one).

You're most welcomed.

#371 Postby **Hybridstorm_November2001** » Thu Aug 30, 2012 8:47 pm

Hey Its Me wrote:
hurricanes1234 wrote:
Hey Its Me wrote:Looks like Buoy 41041 just went from NW/NNW to WSW...

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41041

Welcome to Storm2k! Hope you enjoy your time here.

Thank you all... I'm actually not "new" to storm2k, it's just been so long (think HC Ike days) since I've logged on here, I had to setup my account again. I miss Team Speak! lol That and Mr. "Tampa Bay" (ok, not that last one).

Indeed, Team Speak was great back in the day. 8-)

Welcome back, and I hope you enjoy yourself here as much as in the past.

NHC disco has mentioned Leslie could grow into a real sea monster (a rather large wind field) during the days to come. This system certainly has my interest going forward.

Hey Its Me · #372 Postby **Hey Its Me** » Thu Aug 30, 2012 8:55 pm

Hybridstorm_November2001 wrote:NHC disco has mentioned Leslie could grow into a real sea monster (a rather large wind field) during the days to come. This system certainly has my interest going forward.

Ditto, I hope it's a fish...but need to keep on top of it.

Right now, besides the overall atmosphere synopsis, looking at IR enhancements AVN, JSL and Funktop/RBTOP are not giving me the warm and fuzzies about RI.

HurricaneWarning92 · #373 Postby **HurricaneWarning92** » Thu Aug 30, 2012 9:01 pm

it is still moving west.

Hey Its Me · #374 Postby **Hey Its Me** » Thu Aug 30, 2012 9:18 pm

Hey Its Me wrote:Looks like Buoy 41041 just went from NW/NNW to WSW...

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41041

Buoy Info Confirmed! SW winds and pressure is increasing (ok, it's +.1" but still...). Looks like a pass-by, although not a direct hit. Good info still.

Side note: the sustained and gust readings are way up there in retrospect.

#375 Postby **ozonepete** » Thu Aug 30, 2012 9:20 pm

Latest buoy 41041 reading has SW winds jumping up to 29 knots (1 minute speed). Pressure is starting to rise. So we know the southern part of the center went over the buoy. Nice! that doesn't happen too often. So dead center can't be much more than 14.2, probably 14.4, which means it's still going west. Lowest pressure there was 1004 mb so maybe lowest is 1003 mb right now.
(buoy position is 14.175 N 45.998 W)

#376 Postby **cycloneye** » Thu Aug 30, 2012 9:24 pm

ozonepete wrote:Latest buoy 41041 reading has SW winds jumping up to 29 knots (1 minute speed). Pressure is starting to rise. So we know the southern part of the center went over the buoy. Nice! that doesn't happen too often. So dead center can't be much more than 14.2, probably 14.4, which means it's still going west. Lowest pressure there was 1004 mb so maybe lowest is 1003 mb right now.
(buoy position is 14.175 N 45.998 W)

00z Best Track had 1002 mbs.

ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/inves ... 012.invest

Ken711 · #377 Postby **Ken711** » Thu Aug 30, 2012 9:26 pm

How many hours until it starts heading NW?

#378 Postby **cycloneye** » Thu Aug 30, 2012 9:41 pm

...LESLIE CONTINUING TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE OPEN TROPICAL
ATLANTIC...

SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.7N 46.8W
ABOUT 1010 MI...1625 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES

#379 Postby **Jevo** » Thu Aug 30, 2012 10:56 pm

I said earlier... If it is south of 15 @ 50 then it missed all early model run points and it may be something for the islands to start paying attention to...

but seriously..... "What about Tampa Bay"

Ahhh the good ole TS days

rainstorm · #380 Postby **rainstorm** » Thu Aug 30, 2012 11:10 pm

JB tweetfest brought to you by me.

Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi

US models notorious for early recurves. My take is Leslie is likely to fight her way through at least 1st trough. recurve more likely70-80w
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19m Joe Bastardi Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi

GFS notorious for dropping troughs into cyclones in central atlantic. Leslie could bust this.. If not sw atlantic ripe on its own
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20m Joe Bastardi Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi

Pattern does not mean a Leslie recurve at 60 definite. Major troughs in center of US as per ECMWF invite trouble near east coast.
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