ATL: DEBBY - Post-Tropical

[Annie Oakley]

000
URNT15 KNHC 250135
AF302 0304A DEBBY HDOB 21 20120625
012830 2803N 08529W 8432 01438 9936 +195 +167 215025 025 009 002 00
012900 2802N 08528W 8429 01444 9939 +195 +168 216025 025 008 002 00
012930 2801N 08526W 8429 01443 9941 +189 +173 216026 026 004 002 00
013000 2800N 08525W 8429 01445 9944 +184 +177 219028 028 008 001 00
013030 2758N 08524W 8432 01443 9947 +180 +180 223030 030 008 002 01
013100 2757N 08522W 8430 01446 9950 +180 +180 223031 031 004 003 01
013130 2756N 08521W 8428 01450 9951 +180 +180 225031 031 007 002 01
013200 2755N 08520W 8429 01451 9951 +180 +180 226032 033 009 003 01
013230 2754N 08519W 8429 01450 9951 +183 +178 220035 036 018 001 00
013300 2753N 08517W 8433 01448 9950 +190 +169 218037 038 021 001 00
013330 2751N 08516W 8429 01452 9950 +190 +166 217039 040 025 001 00
013400 2750N 08515W 8432 01452 9952 +190 +166 219041 042 027 002 00
013430 2749N 08514W 8429 01455 9954 +187 +170 219043 043 029 002 00
013500 2748N 08512W 8432 01455 9958 +184 +173 220042 043 030 001 00
013530 2747N 08511W 8431 01456 9961 +180 +177 222042 043 031 003 00
013600 2746N 08510W 8430 01459 9964 +170 +170 223042 042 032 002 01
013630 2745N 08509W 8428 01463 9968 +170 +170 222042 043 032 003 01
013700 2743N 08507W 8433 01460 9970 +175 +174 219045 047 029 002 00
013730 2742N 08506W 8425 01466 9973 +170 +170 220047 047 030 002 01
013800 2741N 08505W 8430 01465 9976 +170 +170 221047 048 030 002 01
$$

[SouthFLTropics]

Someone commented about that convection down near the Yucatan and whether or not it could develop.

I don't think anything would develop out of it since it is in such close proximity to Debby. What it will do though is reload Debby with convection and send another round our way on the peninsula for overnight and tomorrow. You can already see that mass of convection heading NE away from the Yucatan. Get ready for another round of training showers her on the peninsula.

SFT

Disclaimer: Refer to NHC and NWS for official products. Opinions are those of the poster only and in no way reflect or imply any knowledge at all regarding weather science.

[crimi481]

This is great night - in Englewood, FL
20 -40 mph gusts - and sustained for long periods tonight
Rain bands reforming again off coast. Hope all are safe -and power stays on. Enjoy the wind!

http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.ph ... W&loop=yes

[FutureEM]

Is the convection going to come back?

[artist]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
940 PM EDT SUN JUN 24 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MELBOURNE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTH CENTRAL OKEECHOBEE COUNTY IN FLORIDA...
SOUTHEASTERN OSCEOLA COUNTY IN FLORIDA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...YEEHAW JUNCTION...LAKE MARIAN...
KENANSVILLE...

* UNTIL 1030 PM EDT.

* AT 936 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 12 MILES SOUTH
OF YEEHAW JUNCTION...OR ABOUT 7 MILES WEST OF FORT DRUM...MOVING
NORTH AT 35 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR YEEHAW JUNCTION...STATE ROUTE 60 AND THE
FLORIDA TURNPIKE IN SOUTHERN OSCEOLA COUNTY.

[Evil Jeremy]

[gatorcane]

This image shows the first advisory track and position compared to where Debby is now located and even before (the last intermittent advisory position) which was 24 hours ago. It's totally out of the cone within 24 hours!!!! I've never seen this happen and the massive shift with the track and cone I haven't either. This is more extreme than Hurricane Ernesto of 2006's track shift in a short timeframe.

RAINFALL...DEBBY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF
5 TO 10 INCHES OVER MUCH OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...NORTHERN
FLORIDA...CENTRAL FLORIDA AND SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA...WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 TO 20 INCHES POSSIBLE. GIVEN THE RECENT HEAVY
RAINFALL AND WET SOIL CONDITIONS...THESE ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS WILL
EXACERBATE THE FLOODING THREAT ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN FLORIDA
AND SOUTHERN ALABAMA.

TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER COASTAL
ALABAMA...MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA AND SOUTH FLORIDA...
WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES POSSIBLE.

TORNADOES...A FEW ARE POSSIBLE OVER WEST AND CENTRAL FLORIDA
PENINSULA TONIGHT

WOW, another 5 inch increase in the rainfall total forecast!! Every advisory the total increases by another 5 inches for the isolated category, never seen that before. This is indicative of how extreme this rainfall event can become.

I know this has been discussed alot but I was shocked the NHC committed to a westward track for the first advisory. I really thought they would have shown a stall with no commitment east or west until they had some more certainty. Huge victory for the GFS so far on this. A defining moment for that model. A fun storm to watch though with so much model discrepancy.

[Riptide]

The low-level circulation looks rather healthy and I think Debby will be reigniting convection after the dry air mixes out.

[crimi481]

This may be nuts..BUT is that a new Low Center replacement - entering middle of the mess -at approx: 86. /25. ?
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/flash-ir4.html

[Noah]

I am thrilled the rain has stopped and wind is down now to 30mph..I can sleep without worry of tornados and jumping 10 feet from a sleep when weather radio goes off.

Night all.. I think debby is going to be dissipated by morning, but that is just an opinion.. nothing more

[cycloneye]

Is the convection going to come back?

It depends if the storm can get moisture into the circulation and take out some dry air that has gone into the center tonight.

[StormingB81]

I am thrilled the rain has stopped and wind is down now to 30mph..I can sleep without worry of tornados and jumping 10 feet from a sleep when weather radio goes off.

Night all.. I think debby is going to be dissipated by morning, but that is just an opinion.. nothing more

anything but quiet down here in central fl

[Dean4Storms]

The low-level circulation looks rather healthy and I think Debby will be reigniting convection after the dry air mixes out.

Agree, she got decapitated by the shear and just afterwards entrained some dry air and is still footing 992mb and 50-60mph winds, I call that impressive.

I believe the convection will recover and if the shear lets up just a bit there is still alot of energy there.

[Annie Oakley]

000
URNT15 KNHC 250145
AF302 0304A DEBBY HDOB 22 20120625
013830 2740N 08504W 8430 01465 9977 +160 +160 221049 050 030 001 01
013900 2739N 08502W 8428 01468 9981 +160 +160 221050 050 029 001 01
013930 2738N 08501W 8429 01469 9984 +170 +170 223049 050 030 001 01
014000 2737N 08500W 8429 01471 9985 +160 +160 223049 050 029 001 01
014030 2735N 08459W 8430 01472 9989 +160 +160 223050 051 030 001 01
014100 2734N 08457W 8428 01475 9991 +160 +160 222051 053 030 001 01
014130 2734N 08457W 8428 01475 9992 +160 +160 224053 054 027 002 01
014200 2732N 08455W 8429 01478 9994 +160 +160 225051 053 028 001 01
014230 2731N 08454W 8430 01480 9996 +160 +160 225050 053 028 001 01
014300 2730N 08452W 8429 01483 9998 +165 +163 223052 053 026 003 00
014330 2729N 08451W 8430 01481 0000 +165 +161 223052 053 027 002 00
014400 2728N 08450W 8426 01488 0002 +165 +155 223050 051 030 002 00
014430 2726N 08449W 8432 01485 0002 +170 +150 222052 052 032 003 00
014500 2725N 08448W 8426 01491 0002 +172 +149 221053 054 032 003 00
014530 2724N 08446W 8430 01488 0004 +172 +152 220053 054 031 002 00
014600 2723N 08445W 8426 01495 0006 +172 +154 220054 054 032 001 00
014630 2722N 08444W 8426 01497 0010 +168 +157 219054 054 030 003 00
014700 2721N 08443W 8432 01492 0012 +166 +160 219053 053 029 002 00
014730 2720N 08442W 8429 01496 0015 +165 +161 221053 054 029 001 00
014800 2719N 08440W 8430 01497 0022 +160 +160 218052 052 029 003 01
$$

[Dean4Storms]

This may be nuts..BUT is that a new Low Center replacement - entering middle of the mess -at approx: 86. /25. ?
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/flash-ir4.html

Yep, nuts!

[HouTXmetro]

I think anything is possible with a stalled storm. I have a hard time believing this will just sit there until Thursday or Friday and nothing will change. the atmosphere is too fluid. not saying it's going to go west, but If the tracked changes yet again, I wouldn't be the least bit surprised.

(Disclaimer: in my unprofessional opinion)

[Evil Jeremy]

[chris_fit]

Looks like some of the severe weather is starting to transition into the Space Coast... getting really ominous looking here in Palm Bay/Melbourne.... Tornado warning just popped up to the west of here.

[crimi481]

This may be nuts..BUT is that a new Low Center replacement - entering middle of the mess -at approx: 86. /25. ?
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/flash-ir4.html

Yep, nuts!

I resemble that remark (LOL) -proudly

[bamajammer4eva]

Just noticed that Accuweather went on their own this afternoon with a path different from the NHC making landfall Monday PM.