ATL: ISAAC - Models

[frederic79]

Landfall near Mobile Bay? August 29? The 7 year anniversary of Katrina...

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

so will this be a trend, or the wiper blade swish of the day?
If Isaac stays over water considerably longer, then we could see RI. Would that shift things even more easterly, or is it simply about ridge strength at this point?

[SunnyThoughts]

Can anyone see what the pressure (mb) is at landfall?

965/966 mb

Thanks Meriland pheww that's gettin a bit low

[BigB0882]

Euro is still a bit west. 96hr appears to be heading for west FL panhandle.

[img]http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/euro/12zeurotropical500mbSLP096.gif[/mg]

yeah its still the western outlier but this run is still slighty farther east than the 00z.

I thought the 0z had landfall in Florida. I don't see how it could be an East shift to Mobile Bay as that would mean it had landfall in LA at 0z and I do not remember that. Although, in my defense, I have looked at so many model runs the last few days that I can't be held responsible for getting things completely mixed up. lol

[deltadog03]

yes...Landfall is right around Late Tue Night/Early Wed am..... Near Mobile....Euro looks like it wants to bomb this out at the coast....

[wxwatcher1999]

Why isnt the euro making the northeast bend at the end of the run like the others do?

[bucman1]

Is the east trend something you think will continue? Is it possible for Isaac do still ride the coast and enter the Big Bend area?

[petit_bois]

Can anyone see what the pressure (mb) is at landfall?

I think it's 0

[thetruesms]

Can anyone see what the pressure (mb) is at landfall?

965/966 mb

Yes, at 96 hr. It looks like it's dropped to 963 at 120

[meriland23]

this is about.. 50 miles west of 0z run.. and much stronger

[meriland23]

Can anyone see what the pressure (mb) is at landfall?

965/966 mb

Yes, at 96 hr. It looks like it's dropped to 963 at 120

says 966 on the bottom right

[BigB0882]

this is about.. 50 miles west of 0z run.. and much stronger

That is what I thought. 50 miles means nothing but interesting to see a model, and a respected one at that, stop shifting East when the others keep inching that way. Didn't the HWRF go West? Maybe the back and forth is not done, after all?

[wxwatcher1999]

Uh oh we have a west trend now...LOL

[Hurricane Andrew]

WX57, how does this ECM relate to your predictions?

[Pearl River]

Over the past couple of days I've noticed that the 0z has been east and 12z has been west.

JMO.

[meriland23]

this is about.. 50 miles west of 0z run.. and much stronger

That is what I thought. 50 miles means nothing but interesting to see a model, and a respected one at that, stop shifting East when the others keep inching that way. Didn't the HWRF go West? Maybe the back and forth is not done, after all?

Couple of models went west today, even if just a little.. in fact, I think most latest model runs shifted west in the gulf.

[PTrackerLA]

Well that run of the Euro will keep NOLA on their toes. Kind of scary to think it wouldn't take much of a westward shift to give them serious impacts.

[frederic79]

Ok, how concerned should I be? I live on the MS/AL border not far inland. Haven't really bought supplies yet. Should I wait or take the euro seriously. The GFS is way east now, as is most of the models. I don't want to overreact but the euro stubbornly continues to show MS/AL line. Thoughts?

[Aric Dunn]

Uh oh we have a west trend now...LOL

The first 48 to 72 hours were north of the 00z followed by a 50 miles shift west at 120 hours. not much change on that run but still at least fits with the rest of the models unlike the texas solution from yesterday.

[Aric Dunn]

here is the high resolution gfdl

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation