ATL: LESLIE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[floridasun78]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/flash-wv.html but hdw L hdw MID hdw high you see wind blowing west could be high pressure but near bahamas wind up their moving ne it look like what left of isaac could move LESLIE to ne if it happen

[Frank2]

Looking at the short floater loop it does appear to be starting a WNW movement...

Not sure if all here know how to access that loop - here's the link for the new floater page:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... oater.html

[floridasun78]

let see nhc say some here say west other say wnw other say nw but look at loop still moving same way as 2pm update

[wxman57]

Don't expect the turn to become too apparent until it's approaching 55W. There just isn't anything to keep it on a west course into the islands.

[floridasun78]

Don't expect the turn to become too apparent until it's approaching 55W. There just isn't anything to keep it on a west course into the islands.

let see if turn as you say .WHICH WILL PROBABLY TURN THE
CYCLONE TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH. THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY
IN THE LONG RANGE RELATED TO WHETHER THE SYSTEM RECURVES AHEAD OF
THE TROUGH OR GETS TRAPPED BENEATH A REBUILDING RIDGE.

[Aric Dunn]

buoy almost to 2006mb. next hours looks like it will be going right over or just south of it.

[wxman57]

Don't expect the turn to become too apparent until it's approaching 55W. There just isn't anything to keep it on a west course into the islands.

let see if turn as you say .WHICH WILL PROBABLY TURN THE
CYCLONE TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH. THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY
IN THE LONG RANGE RELATED TO WHETHER THE SYSTEM RECURVES AHEAD OF
THE TROUGH OR GETS TRAPPED BENEATH A REBUILDING RIDGE.

Yeah, the uncertainty is what happens when it gets southeast of Bermuda in 4-5 days. Does it get trapped there and make a loop (Euro) or does it beat the ridge and head NE (GFS). But there much less uncertainty as far as the NE Caribbean threat.

[floridasun78]

i want see what 5pm DISCUSSION say

[brunota2003]

buoy almost to 2006mb. next hours looks like it will be going right over or just south of it.

Winds are shifting from NNW to the NW (336 to 316), would suggest the center is just north of the latitude of the buoy.

[cycloneye]

brunota2003, are you going to make you always good RI forecasts for Leslie?

[cycloneye]

[floridasun78]

cone look like stift a bit more to left and 11am http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at2.sh ... e#contents

[brunota2003]

brunota2003, are you going to make you always good RI forecasts for Leslie?

Not always good, Isaac and Ernesto were both a pain, with land interaction interfering (don't get me wrong though, I am glad they did NOT RI)...if I see anything with Leslie, then yes I certainly will post one (Note: Just because I don't forecast RI doesn't mean it can't happen!).

[Hurricane_Luis]

Well we have a Tri-storm (3 active at one time)

[lester]

Well we have a Tri-storm (3 active at one time)

2 now, the NHC did its last forecast on Isaac

[Nederlander]

I would think if Leslie is going to escape via the weakness then she will need to start gaining some latitude quick, no? Seems to me that ridging is going to build back over here once Kirk is out of the way. What am I not seeing?

[ozonepete]

I would think if Leslie is going to escape via the weakness then she will need to start gaining some latitude quick, no? Seems to me that ridging is going to build back over here once Kirk is out of the way. What am I not seeing?

http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/222/wg8dlm2.gif/
http://img222.imageshack.us/img222/3403/wg8dlm2.gif[/img]

You're looking at current steering on that chart. Per the 5PM NHC discussion and the forecast models, a series of troughs entering the western Atlantic will erode the ridge on its western side and allow Leslie to turn north as it approaches the islands. So you need future steering charts, not current, to see it.

[x-y-no]

Wind at bouy 41041 swing back to NNW ...

TIME
(GMT) WDIR WSPD
2050 NNW ( 339 deg ) 18.6 kts
2040 NNW ( 335 deg ) 20.4 kts
2030 NNW ( 333 deg ) 21.4 kts
2020 NNW ( 332 deg ) 22.0 kts
2010 NW ( 319 deg ) 26.6 kts
2000 NW ( 318 deg ) 22.3 kts

[TheDreamTraveler]

It will be interesting to see how Leslie's overall path is effected over the next week. We don't know how big of a role Isaac's remnants will play over the Mid-Atlantic and also the ridging that could build back in after Hurricane Kirk leaves. Not to mention the models have had an eastern bias all season. I remember when I thought Issac was going to recurve and not hit the CONUS when it first formed. Don't be surprised if the models adjust west. But I don't think they'll do it as severely as was the case for Isaac (if at all).

EDIT: I should also add that most of the models have kept almost every storm stronger than they are in reality this year, thus leading them to travel further west than modeled due to being weaker. So if Leslie doesn't intensify as strongly as indicated by the computer models, then we could have a possible threat to the Caribbean. The Eastern CONUS/Bermuda/Canadian Maritimes will also have to keep an eye on this since I'm not convinced it's entirely a fish storm yet.

[Anthysteg00]

Convection appears to be slightly waning, and it appears Leslie is about to run into a wall of dry air. If my eyes do not deceive me also, Leslie's COC appears to be slightly becoming exposed on the east quad. I have seen this story so many times this season but perhaps Leslie is the strongest system. TD's and TS's this season seem to get to about this point and are hit my massive amounts of dry air and pockets of wind shear that appear to hinder it pretty badly. I believe recent Northerly motion is a result of the strong strengthening at a fair clip, but this motion can potentially shift to about a 265-275 heading reasonably if Leslie's COC becomes a tad bit more exposed and as she pushes into the wall of dry air, she has to struggle.


This recipe seems to have led many system's through the Caribbean, and may happen again, but who can be sure. Just my opinion here everyone.

This post is NOT AN OFFICIAL FORECAST and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.