ATL: HELENE - Post-Tropical

[Nikki]

So is it TD7 yet or not? I am confused

[HurricaneBelle]

Storm RE-RE-numbered 07 --> 92

invest_RENUMBER_al072012_al922012.ren

Yes,here is the link to the reversal.

ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/inves ... 922012.ren

They must have a new intern who's quick on the trigger over there - yesterday, they accidentally sent out the 5PM discussion on Ernesto an hour early.

[Aric Dunn]

lol thats funny. Its still likely a TD sure they are just waiting for a little more organized convection.

[ConvergenceZone]

Was checking model projections for general flow in the Gulf next week and the Euro, GFS, UKMET and to a lesser amount the Canadian all have a weakness in the ridge over the north-central Gulf this weekend as a moderate cold front sweeps through the Grt Lakes and NE U.S. However, by early next week they all build a ridge westward across the central to northern Gulf.

This would indicate a track similar to Ernesto, perhaps even a bit farther south, with a landfall in Honduras/Nicaragua or possibly Belize next Tuesday night/Wed. That's very fast movement, indicating future "Gordon", too, may have issues with vertical stacking in the fast low-level flow.

For now, I don't see any indications of a central to northern Gulf threat.

WXMAN, when do you think this season is going to go back to being normal?? All I
seem to hear about lately is dry air and shear and yet we are going into mid-august with storms that can barely develop.....
I guess September HAS to be really active so I guess we'll just have to wait?

[ConvergenceZone]

Amazing how things change. Not long ago we are hearing that the northern Gulf Coast is "open for business" due to the non-"death ridge" and now it appears as though nothing can get north of Belize due to the existing-"death ridge" ... the more things change , the more they stay the same.

Yea I agree, one of these years, the setup is bound to change, but nobody knows what year it's going to be... For now though, I guess it's just weak systems, lots of dry air and shear and mexico bound storms.

[KWT]

Maybe they've reviewed the trends of the last couple of hours and the way the convective coverage has decreased and how the LLC has become exposed and decided against it afterall??

Who knows, it probably does meet the requirements for a TD.

ps, CZ its a weak El Nino season, so it doesn't have to get 'active' at all, with it being El Nino we will probably have a shorter' primetime period, maybe just 2-3 weeks in early September.

[cycloneye]

Off-Topic=But NOAA increased their numbers in their August forecst released today. See the details on thread at Talking Tropics forum.

[ConvergenceZone]

Maybe they've reviewed the trends of the last couple of hours and the way the convective coverage has decreased and how the LLC has become exposed and decided against it afterall??

Who knows, it probably does meet the requirements for a TD.

ps, CZ its a weak El Nino season, so it doesn't have to get 'active' at all, with it being El Nino we will probably have a shorter' primetime period, maybe just 2-3 weeks in early September.

Actually, what you said makes sense KWT, because on the tropical update on the weather channel the other day they mentioned that the tropical activity may die down for good by early to mid september, and I was wondering, really???? That doesn't sound right!! But I missed the beginning of the update, so they could have been explaining the El Nino being the cause. I completely forgot that we usually have real short seasons when there's an El Nino in place, so good call!! So basically any activity we are going to have will probably have to happen in the next 4 weeks or it's all over....

[psyclone]

Was checking model projections for general flow in the Gulf next week and the Euro, GFS, UKMET and to a lesser amount the Canadian all have a weakness in the ridge over the north-central Gulf this weekend as a moderate cold front sweeps through the Grt Lakes and NE U.S. However, by early next week they all build a ridge westward across the central to northern Gulf.

This would indicate a track similar to Ernesto, perhaps even a bit farther south, with a landfall in Honduras/Nicaragua or possibly Belize next Tuesday night/Wed. That's very fast movement, indicating future "Gordon", too, may have issues with vertical stacking in the fast low-level flow.

For now, I don't see any indications of a central to northern Gulf threat.

WXMAN, when do you think this season is going to go back to being normal?? All I
seem to hear about lately is dry air and shear and yet we are going into mid-august with storms that can barely develop.....
I guess September HAS to be really active so I guess we'll just have to wait?

Who says it has to get busy at all? most people, including wxman have been bearish on the year since the preseason. perhaps we can get a year off. having said that, we are just at the begining of the heart of hurricane season. cyclone activity historically ramps up in august but it does so from a low baseline. we're only about 1/4 of the way up the mountain that starts august 1 and peaks sept 10. then we get to go back down...we've got about 7/8 to go, or put another way, we're midway through the first quarter.

[wxman57]

I've seen this happen before. I'm sure there was a discussion about whether to upgrade now or later. Initially they may have been thinking "upgrade", but they changed their mind.

[ConvergenceZone]

Who says it has to get busy at all? most people, including wxman have been bearish on the year since the preseason. perhaps we can get a year off. having said that, we are just at the begining of the heart of hurricane season. cyclone activity historically ramps up in august but it does so from a low baseline. we're only about 1/4 of the way up the mountain that starts august 1 and peaks sept 10. then we get to go back down...we've got about 7/8 to go, or put another way, we're midway through the first quarter.

Except as KWT mentioned, it's ElNino which could mean a quick short season that can end quickly in early to mid September. I had completely forgot about that earlier.

[KWT]

I've seen this happen before. I'm sure there was a discussion about whether to upgrade now or later. Initially they may have been thinking "upgrade", but they changed their mind.

These things are pretty rare, but given its losing convective depth and coverage at the moment and the LLC has become exposed, maybe it is a wise idea to hold fire, especially as the models are not at all keen on this system either. If it doesn't make it, I'd guess it'd be a solid post season candidate given its superb presentation overnight as the low level flow increased.

[floridasun78]

Off-Topic=But NOAA increased their numbers in their August forecst released today. See the details on thread at Talking Tropics forum.

did colo release their aug report too?

[Aric Dunn]

low level cloud deck is starting to thicken... should see some new convection build around the center over the next few hours.

[floridasun78]

Aug 9th 12z dynamic model guidance.

it look like other ERNESTO track

[Portastorm]

Off-Topic=But NOAA increased their numbers in their August forecst released today. See the details on thread at Talking Tropics forum.

did colo release their aug report too?

I assume you mean Colorado State and Drs. Gray/Klotzbach. They released their update last week. Here is a link:

http://tropical.atmos.colostate.edu/forecasts/2012/aug2012/aug2012.pdf

Now, let's get back on topic about 92L, please.

[KWT]

low level cloud deck is starting to thicken... should see some new convection build around the center over the next few hours.

What I'm also noticing is that the SAL is getting directly injested into the circulation on the western side which won't help at all.

[ROCK]

6Z NOGAPS....up and out....way right

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical

[Aric Dunn]

low level cloud deck is starting to thicken... should see some new convection build around the center over the next few hours.

What I'm also noticing is that the SAL is getting directly injested into the circulation on the western side which won't help at all.

yeah sal is still around. but compared to yesterday it has improved a lot. less showing up on sat and less milky white md level stable air clouds

[ROCK]

low level cloud deck is starting to thicken... should see some new convection build around the center over the next few hours.

What I'm also noticing is that the SAL is getting directly injested into the circulation on the western side which won't help at all.

Yeah, 92L is taking in the brunt of that SAL left behind by Florence....in a way Florence was to fast and let the SAL fill in behind her....I blame her...