ATL: ALBERTO - Post-Tropical

[brunota2003]

000
URNT15 KNHC 201755
AF302 0101A ALBERTO HDOB 14 20120520
174700 3239N 07909W 7017 03111 0145 +048 -088 087018 019 /// /// 03
174730 3239N 07906W 7311 02778 0155 +060 -007 084016 018 /// /// 03
174800 3239N 07904W 7615 02443 0165 +070 +056 089018 019 /// /// 03
174830 3239N 07902W 7933 02107 0176 +081 //// 098020 021 /// /// 05
174900 3239N 07859W 8260 01773 0172 +106 +096 098020 021 /// /// 03
174930 3238N 07857W 8429 01594 0159 +120 +108 100019 019 /// /// 03
175000 3238N 07855W 8425 01594 0154 +122 +104 101019 019 /// /// 03
175030 3238N 07853W 8422 01594 0151 +122 +103 102018 019 /// /// 03
175100 3238N 07850W 8426 01588 0149 +120 +109 103018 019 /// /// 03
175130 3238N 07848W 8425 01588 0147 +119 +110 107019 020 /// /// 03
175200 3238N 07846W 8430 01584 0149 +118 +105 111021 022 /// /// 33
175230 3237N 07843W 8428 01586 0147 +123 +104 117019 020 /// /// 03
175300 3237N 07841W 8428 01586 0147 +123 +104 118018 018 035 000 03
175330 3237N 07838W 8427 01589 0148 +123 +105 120018 018 035 000 00
175400 3237N 07836W 8428 01585 0147 +123 +106 122017 018 035 000 00
175430 3237N 07833W 8443 01577 0153 +122 +113 119015 015 033 001 00
175500 3236N 07831W 8437 01585 0160 +114 //// 118018 018 031 001 01
175530 3236N 07830W 8432 01588 0152 +124 +111 127018 019 030 001 00
175600 3236N 07828W 8427 01594 0154 +125 +108 125017 018 030 001 00
175630 3236N 07826W 8429 01591 0154 +123 +111 123016 017 030 000 00
$$
;

[MGC]

Ole Al took a big gulp of dry air and it shows. Recon should give us better info later, might be some TS force winds in the convection on the west side of the COC. How close will Alberto gets to the coast is a good question.....MGC

[psyclone]

Rain is quickly approaching the St Mary's river and will move into Nassau county Fl soon. If it holds together it could make it into Jacksonville a bit later.

[brunota2003]

000
URNT15 KNHC 201805
AF302 0101A ALBERTO HDOB 15 20120520
175700 3236N 07824W 8433 01590 0155 +120 +117 127017 018 030 000 00
175730 3236N 07822W 8427 01593 0159 +110 //// 119017 018 034 003 01
175800 3235N 07821W 8439 01585 0161 +112 //// 117017 018 030 000 01
175830 3235N 07819W 8432 01590 0155 +122 +114 119017 020 030 000 00
175900 3235N 07817W 8433 01594 0162 +119 +115 123013 014 029 000 03
175930 3234N 07816W 8427 01602 0161 +122 +111 119014 017 /// /// 03
180000 3233N 07818W 8430 01590 0153 +125 +105 111011 012 031 000 00
180030 3232N 07819W 8426 01593 0152 +126 +101 120011 012 031 000 00
180100 3230N 07821W 8433 01590 0152 +128 +098 119013 015 031 000 00
180130 3229N 07822W 8430 01591 0154 +122 +102 115014 015 031 001 00
180200 3228N 07823W 8428 01592 0151 +128 +095 114015 016 033 000 00
180230 3227N 07825W 8428 01592 0150 +127 +096 113016 018 034 002 00
180300 3226N 07826W 8431 01587 0151 +124 +109 119020 022 037 003 00
180330 3225N 07828W 8409 01606 //// +108 //// 110019 021 044 019 01
180400 3223N 07829W 8427 01593 0154 +108 //// 116013 015 044 015 05
180430 3222N 07830W 8426 01593 0152 +122 +116 128015 016 028 000 00
180500 3221N 07832W 8429 01590 0153 +124 +108 113015 016 025 000 00
180530 3220N 07833W 8433 01585 0151 +128 +100 110015 016 025 000 03
180600 3219N 07834W 8428 01594 0152 +126 +097 111015 016 026 000 03
180630 3217N 07836W 8430 01589 0154 +125 +097 111015 015 028 000 00
$$
;

[brunota2003]

000
URNT15 KNHC 201815
AF302 0101A ALBERTO HDOB 16 20120520
180700 3216N 07837W 8428 01592 0155 +121 +100 112013 014 029 000 00
180730 3214N 07838W 8428 01594 0157 +120 +102 112012 013 031 000 03
180800 3213N 07839W 8430 01591 0154 +121 +101 108013 014 030 000 00
180830 3211N 07840W 8434 01587 0157 +120 +105 116013 013 030 000 00
180900 3210N 07840W 8430 01585 0154 +119 +105 122013 014 030 000 00
180930 3209N 07841W 8429 01589 0153 +121 +103 118013 013 029 000 00
181000 3207N 07842W 8428 01590 0155 +120 +106 108013 013 029 000 00
181030 3205N 07843W 8429 01587 0153 +118 +105 104012 012 029 000 00
181100 3204N 07844W 8427 01590 0152 +119 +103 102012 013 030 000 00
181130 3202N 07844W 8431 01585 0153 +112 //// 101014 017 035 001 05
181200 3201N 07845W 8436 01580 //// +098 //// 111011 013 038 009 01
181230 3159N 07845W 8429 01583 0153 +099 //// 135017 018 033 001 05
181300 3158N 07846W 8427 01587 0148 +118 +113 136018 019 029 000 03
181330 3157N 07847W 8431 01581 0145 +120 +112 133017 017 029 000 00
181400 3155N 07849W 8428 01585 0147 +117 +114 134016 016 029 000 00
181430 3154N 07850W 8432 01578 0147 +118 +107 143015 017 028 000 03
181500 3153N 07851W 8426 01585 0154 +102 //// 143014 014 030 001 05
181530 3152N 07852W 8434 01575 0150 +112 +094 141015 016 030 000 00
181600 3151N 07854W 8430 01581 0144 +122 +068 140015 015 028 000 00
181630 3149N 07855W 8429 01581 0144 +125 +054 142016 017 028 000 03
$$
;

['CaneFreak]

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Prediction: Recon finds Alberto weaker and it gets downgraded to a depression or a 40 mph TS.

Looking at the latest buoy observations from the area, the highest sustained winds I see are around 25 knots (gusts off of Edisto Beach) and the pressures throughout the region are either steady or slowly rising. However, looking at the latest satellite imagery, she does seem to have bursted a little over the past few hours so they probably won't issue a last advisory just yet.

[brunota2003]

According to the Smurf, there are lots of winds in the low 30s in the convection empty NE quad

[northjaxpro]

Rain is quickly approaching the St Mary's river and will move into Nassau county Fl soon. If it holds together it could make it into Jacksonville a bit later.

It will psyclone. I am currently looking at the stratus cloud deck moving in rapidly as the outer rainbands are about to move across the St. Mary's River into Nassau county. Alberto continues to move SW at around 6 mph. The system indeed moved much closer to the NE FL/ SE GA coast than iI initially though it would. The center is about 75 miles east due east of Brunswick right now. The rain band should move into Jax area in the next hour to hour and a half.

Also, there is a new small convective burst that has formed near the center of circulation.

[brunota2003]

000
URNT15 KNHC 201825
AF302 0101A ALBERTO HDOB 17 20120520
181700 3148N 07856W 8427 01582 0144 +125 +039 142017 017 028 000 00
181730 3147N 07858W 8430 01579 0142 +129 +024 142018 020 028 000 00
181800 3146N 07859W 8427 01582 0143 +120 +073 144021 021 029 000 03
181830 3145N 07901W 8430 01577 0144 +114 +104 142019 020 030 000 03
181900 3144N 07902W 8434 01573 0143 +115 +107 145019 019 029 000 00
181930 3143N 07904W 8429 01577 0144 +111 //// 142018 019 030 000 01
182000 3142N 07905W 8429 01575 0138 +116 +109 137020 021 029 000 00
182030 3141N 07907W 8428 01576 0137 +119 +109 129020 020 030 000 03
182100 3140N 07908W 8427 01577 0141 +113 +112 126018 018 030 000 03
182130 3139N 07910W 8429 01573 0138 +114 +113 125018 018 029 000 00
182200 3138N 07911W 8426 01578 0141 +110 //// 121018 019 031 000 01
182230 3136N 07912W 8430 01569 0134 +120 +111 117018 018 030 000 03
182300 3135N 07913W 8434 01568 0133 +121 +109 133016 017 032 000 00
182330 3133N 07914W 8434 01570 0140 +111 //// 149013 014 032 000 05
182400 3132N 07915W 8433 01568 0139 +110 //// 156012 012 033 000 05
182430 3132N 07917W 8426 01573 //// +105 //// 147012 013 035 000 05
182500 3131N 07919W 8425 01572 //// +102 //// 137011 013 036 001 05
182530 3130N 07920W 8433 01567 0130 +109 //// 127012 014 034 002 05
182600 3129N 07921W 8430 01569 0128 +120 //// 125012 012 033 000 01
182630 3127N 07923W 8428 01569 0128 +120 //// 126012 012 034 000 01
$$
;

[AHS2011]

is there a chance Alberto can go into the Gulf of Mexico and re-develop?

[brunota2003]

000
URNT15 KNHC 201835
AF302 0101A ALBERTO HDOB 18 20120520
182700 3126N 07924W 8430 01564 0130 +115 //// 127011 011 033 000 01
182730 3125N 07925W 8431 01565 0133 +109 //// 130012 012 034 000 01
182800 3123N 07926W 8428 01567 0130 +112 //// 133013 014 035 000 05
182830 3122N 07928W 8430 01563 0127 +118 //// 140012 012 033 001 05
182900 3121N 07929W 8428 01565 0125 +116 //// 139011 012 034 002 01
182930 3120N 07930W 8429 01564 0114 +134 +108 148010 011 032 000 00
183000 3119N 07932W 8428 01566 0112 +139 +105 154010 011 029 000 03
183030 3118N 07933W 8429 01562 0110 +140 +106 158011 011 029 000 03
183100 3117N 07935W 8426 01566 0109 +139 +107 158012 012 029 000 00
183130 3117N 07937W 8430 01559 0110 +136 +109 159014 015 028 000 03
183200 3116N 07939W 8432 01556 0107 +135 +108 158015 015 029 000 03
183230 3116N 07941W 8426 01558 0106 +135 +105 159015 015 029 000 00
183300 3115N 07942W 8432 01553 0104 +138 +102 145013 014 029 000 03
183330 3114N 07944W 8432 01552 0102 +140 +110 154013 013 029 000 00
183400 3114N 07946W 8428 01554 0095 +145 +106 155014 015 030 000 03
183430 3113N 07947W 8434 01547 0093 +147 +100 158017 019 030 000 03
183500 3112N 07949W 8426 01551 0084 +159 +090 145017 017 032 000 03
183530 3112N 07951W 8426 01548 0081 +159 +107 142015 016 033 001 03
183600 3111N 07953W 8433 01538 0073 +165 +111 150015 017 031 000 00
183630 3110N 07954W 8429 01541 0071 +164 +114 143016 017 028 000 00
$$
;

['CaneFreak]

Thanks for the question. I would place the chances of this happening at about 0.5 %. There is an upper level trough currently situated over the mississippi/ohio river valley and it is headed towards the east coast. This will open up a weakness to allow the system to safely escape to the north and east away from the coast.

is there a chance Alberto can go into the Gulf of Mexico and re-develop?

[brunota2003]

So far...the strongest winds that the aircraft itself has sampled (30s average) is a whopping 21 knots.

[brunota2003]

000
URNT15 KNHC 201845
AF302 0101A ALBERTO HDOB 19 20120520
183700 3109N 07956W 8436 01533 0068 +165 +098 143017 018 024 001 00
183730 3108N 07957W 8425 01540 0065 +165 +092 151018 020 025 000 00
183800 3107N 07959W 8426 01542 0059 +170 +107 156013 015 024 000 03
183830 3106N 08001W 8428 01530 0050 +179 +097 126012 014 023 000 00
183900 3105N 08002W 8429 01528 0043 +185 +094 050014 016 030 000 03
183930 3104N 08004W 8426 01528 0043 +182 +104 008022 024 036 000 00
184000 3103N 08005W 8428 01531 0054 +170 +107 348026 027 033 000 00
184030 3101N 08007W 8442 01521 0073 +150 +115 337025 029 029 001 00
184100 3100N 08008W 8425 01543 0081 +140 +136 322024 026 035 001 00
184130 3059N 08009W 8426 01547 0091 +131 //// 327028 030 046 000 01
184200 3057N 08010W 8433 01543 0094 +134 //// 334028 030 045 004 05
184230 3057N 08012W 8430 01551 0094 +146 +127 334026 027 /// /// 03
184300 3058N 08013W 8431 01554 0096 +148 +127 336026 027 /// /// 03
184330 3059N 08012W 8425 01553 0095 +134 //// 340026 027 045 002 05
184400 3100N 08010W 8441 01534 0091 +131 //// 335024 025 037 002 05
184430 3101N 08009W 8426 01542 0085 +133 //// 332024 025 034 001 01
184500 3101N 08007W 8429 01538 0076 +142 +115 340026 028 028 001 03
184530 3102N 08005W 8421 01538 0060 +162 +108 341025 029 030 001 03
184600 3102N 08003W 8441 01513 0046 +176 +108 348019 022 034 000 00
184630 3103N 08002W 8426 01525 0042 +181 +099 347002 009 023 000 03
$$
;

[CrazyC83]

SFMR just reported 46 kt.

[CrazyC83]

Make that 52 kt SFMR, with a pressure of 1004mb.

Based on that, I estimate that the ship yesterday was ALMOST accurate, and think the peak intensity was 60 kt.

[brunota2003]

Some 51 knots on this set, according to the Smurf

000
URNT15 KNHC 201855
AF302 0101A ALBERTO HDOB 20 20120520
184700 3103N 08000W 8425 01531 0045 +181 +091 190019 020 023 000 00
184730 3103N 07958W 8431 01531 0054 +175 +083 193021 022 027 000 00
184800 3103N 07956W 8433 01532 0065 +165 +099 195022 023 029 000 03
184830 3102N 07954W 8433 01545 0076 +163 +104 202021 022 /// /// 03
184900 3101N 07955W 8425 01542 0072 +162 +105 208018 020 042 001 03
184930 3100N 07956W 8432 01535 0068 +160 +107 211020 021 041 001 03
185000 3059N 07957W 8428 01538 0067 +161 +106 223021 023 037 000 03
185030 3058N 07959W 8432 01533 0068 +160 +108 248021 023 040 000 03
185100 3057N 08000W 8428 01538 0071 +154 +112 253021 023 042 000 00
185130 3056N 08001W 8431 01538 0077 +147 +125 275022 024 048 001 00
185200 3055N 08003W 8430 01540 0085 +137 +130 298025 028 049 001 00
185230 3054N 08004W 8431 01543 0090 +127 //// 307026 028 051 004 01
185300 3053N 08005W 8434 01540 0092 +132 //// 307025 025 051 001 01
185330 3052N 08007W 8429 01548 0099 +128 //// 310026 027 051 004 01
185400 3051N 08008W 8433 01546 0102 +124 //// 316030 032 051 003 01
185430 3050N 08010W 8429 01554 //// +120 //// 320029 032 049 005 01
185500 3049N 08011W 8431 01555 //// +115 //// 325031 033 051 010 01
185530 3048N 08013W 8435 01551 //// +107 //// 317031 035 049 011 01
185600 3046N 08014W 8427 01564 //// +102 //// 309024 025 052 015 01
185630 3045N 08015W 8435 01556 //// +100 //// 296023 024 051 015 01
$$
;

[Nimbus]

Latest convective burst doesn't look like it is getting blown off, that might mean the dry shear off the land is lessening. hopefully the Ohio river valley trough will arrive soon.

[cycloneye]

And 18z Best Track comes with 40kts and 1004 mbs.

AL, 01, 2012052018, , BEST, 0, 311N, 799W, 40, 1004, TS

http://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/inve ... 012.invest

[brunota2003]

I think that BT will get revised if they consider that 51 knots measured by the SFMR accurate. Assuming that the aircraft didn't sample the highest winds (they stayed out of the convective burst for the most part), you could make a claim that the winds are as high as 55 knots. Weird though, the highest winds measured at flight level are in the 33 knot range.