ATL: DEBBY - Post-Tropical

[DAY_1_RESPONDER]

Could this storm be a textbook case of 'paralysis of analysis'?

[artist]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
505 PM EDT SUN JUN 24 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RUSKIN HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL HIGHLANDS COUNTY IN FLORIDA.

* UNTIL 530 PM EDT

* AT 500 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
TORNADO NEAR LAKE ISTOKPOGA...OR 9 MILES EAST OF LAKE PLACID...
MOVING NORTH AT 45 MPH.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

[artist]

also in New Port Richey a confirmed touchdown off of School Rd.

[Cyclenall]

This image shows the first advisory track and position compared to where Debby is now located and even before (the last intermittent advisory position) which was 24 hours ago. It's totally out of the cone within 24 hours!!!! I've never seen this happen and the massive shift with the track and cone I haven't either. This is more extreme than Hurricane Ernesto of 2006's track shift in a short timeframe.

RAINFALL...DEBBY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF
5 TO 10 INCHES OVER MUCH OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...NORTHERN
FLORIDA...CENTRAL FLORIDA AND SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA...WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 TO 20 INCHES POSSIBLE. GIVEN THE RECENT HEAVY
RAINFALL AND WET SOIL CONDITIONS...THESE ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS WILL
EXACERBATE THE FLOODING THREAT ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN FLORIDA
AND SOUTHERN ALABAMA.

TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER COASTAL
ALABAMA...MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA AND SOUTH FLORIDA...
WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES POSSIBLE.

TORNADOES...A FEW ARE POSSIBLE OVER WEST AND CENTRAL FLORIDA
PENINSULA TONIGHT

WOW, another 5 inch increase in the rainfall total forecast!! Every advisory the total increases by another 5 inches for the isolated category, never seen that before. This is indicative of how extreme this rainfall event can become.

[tailgater]

A jog to the nw on the latest visible loop, the deeper convection may be tugging it that direction.

[robbielyn]

1 person killed by tornado Highlands county. 345 pm today.

[hazmat]

To those posting in regards to damage in Highlands County....
hubby with EOC. We've had several tornados & another with visual confirmation nearing Hendersons fish camp.
Per radio chatter we do have one confirmed fatality, multiple injuries, downed power lines. & alot of damage in the southern end of the county.
Doesn't matter where she landfalls or how much more she strengthens....
Debby is doing plenty of damage right now...
inland no less too.
Keep up the great work to those who provide info & analysis & don't forget you don't have to be on the coast to experience damage or in the eye of hurricane either.

[yzerfan]

Florida Highway Patrol's web site will have some information on major road closures:

http://www.flhsmv.gov/fhp/traffic/

Some scattered reports of trees blocking roadways and there's standing water on I-75 in Alachua County among other reports.

Navarre Beach causeway between Pensacola Beach and Navarre Beach is now closed because of flooding, which is to be expected in these conditions.

[Aric Dunn]

A jog to the nw on the latest visible loop, the deeper convection may be tugging it that direction.

you have to be careful there are to little vorts spinning around in there. I still see just drifting n to nne very very slow.

[robbielyn]

A jog to the nw on the latest visible loop, the deeper convection may be tugging it that direction.

you have to be careful there are to little vorts spinning around in there. I still see just drifting n to nne very very slow.

I agree still nne

[Kingarabian]

GFS 18z Initial.

[artist]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
529 PM EDT SUN JUN 24 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RUSKIN HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHWESTERN HERNANDO COUNTY IN FLORIDA.
NORTHWESTERN HILLSBOROUGH COUNTY IN FLORIDA.
WESTERN PASCO COUNTY IN FLORIDA.
NORTHERN PINELLAS COUNTY IN FLORIDA.

* UNTIL 600 PM EDT

* AT 522 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
TORNADO NEAR TRINITY...OR 6 MILES EAST OF TARPON SPRINGS...MOVING
NORTH AT 40 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
ODESSA...TRINITY.
JASMINE ESTATES.
MOON LAKE ESTATES...BAYONET POINT.
SHADY HILLS...ARIPEKA.
SPRING HILL...MASARYKTOWN.
HERNANDO COUNTY AIRPORT...GARDEN GROVE.

[Kingarabian]

GFS +12 18z

[Nimbus]

If Debbie crosses 30N east of 88W I will consider the GFS model winner and promptly hit the paypal button and make a 5$ donation. Been meaning to do that anyway for all the good insight we get here.

[bqhurricane]

I'm a complete noob at this, but can someone explain how in less than 24 hours the center of circulation is nowhere near where the original cone was?

[Evil Jeremy]

I'm a complete noob at this, but can someone explain how in less than 24 hours the center of circulation is nowhere near where the original cone was?

http://i47.tinypic.com/ruvf39.png

The computer models changed. Everything changed. This is an anomaly, changes this big are incredibly, incredibly rare.

[Kingarabian]

I'm a complete noob at this, but can someone explain how in less than 24 hours the center of circulation is nowhere near where the original cone was?

[img]Image

The NHC was following the Euro's solution, but it never became concrete.

[brunota2003]

The NHC bit on one solution, and the other turned out to be closer to the truth. The cone represents where the center will be 66% of the time. The other 34% of the time the center goes out of the cone. Obviously, though, that 34% is usually further along the track (Day 4 or 5) than this time's.

[Hammy]

interesting to note that the GFS did predict the storm to sort of split about this point in the wind field and convection

[FutureEM]

Tons of flooded streets, as evidenced by tall the of youtube and fb videos being uploaded.