ATL: DEBBY - Post-Tropical

[Buck]

I think the next change in the NHC track will be to speed up landfall a fair bit. I sure hope it won't be making landfall 4 days from today.

Sure hope so!

[wxman57]

Could this end up become a huge East Coast rainmaker?

Probably not the east coast. Either it's picked up and accelerated up the front (and offshore) or it gets stuck in the deep south and slowly dies over southern AL/GA.

[dixiebreeze]

I think the next change in the NHC track will be to speed up landfall a fair bit. I sure hope it won't be making landfall 4 days from today.

Agreed -- and worth repeating.

[ozonepete]

I would say hurricane jeanne in 2004

Yes! I forgot about that one. It's the ones that stall out that cause major headaches on track.

[artist]

Even though I am from east Texas I am working in the Lake Placid area for now and we have been under tornado warnings for over 2 hours now. I think that is a record for me. LOL

how is it there, I have family up there on vacation for the weekend.

It is raining heavily off and on. The local mets are saying damage was noted south of the Lake Placid, trees down, a winnebego was turned over. The heavy rain is about over for now. Hopefully it will stay that way. I hope they are safe where they are at.

thanks, yeah I can't get in touch with them right now, so a little concerned. Saw where there was a touchdown just south of where they are.

[Evil Jeremy]

It is my bizarre opinion that now that Debbie is not flying northeastward any more (which is the initial input information they were using to make their forecasts) and has stalled that the next set of models coming out at midnight will shift back to the west and throw a wrench into everyone's thinking. I've seen these kinds of model shifts many times before.

These aren't flip flop switches. This has been all the major models converging together on one solution. Still, they could always flip back west. How far west do you expect them to flip?

[Aquawind]

I think the next change in the NHC track will be to speed up landfall a fair bit. I sure hope it won't be making landfall 4 days from today.

Agreed -- and worth repeating.

Double Agreed...Everyone will be exhausted and abused by then.

[FutureEM]

Tons of flooded streets, as evidenced by tall the of youtube and fb videos being uploaded.

[jabman98]

I think the next change in the NHC track will be to speed up landfall a fair bit. I sure hope it won't be making landfall 4 days from today.

I hope so. I can't imagine it'll take until Thur/Fri before it's inland. That's crazy! That part of Florida is going to float away.

[seaswing]

I would say hurricane jeanne in 2004

Yes! I forgot about that one. It's the ones that stall out that cause major headaches on track.

I remember that one, she came in stronger than predicted and skirted up the Gulf coast. She made more wind and rain for me than Frances did earlier that summer. I was surprised!

[vaffie]

It is my bizarre opinion that now that Debbie is not flying northeastward any more (which is the initial input information they were using to make their forecasts) and has stalled that the next set of models coming out at midnight will shift back to the west and throw a wrench into everyone's thinking. I've seen these kinds of model shifts many times before.

These aren't flip flop switches. This has been all the major models converging together on one solution. Still, they could always flip back west. How far west do you expect them to flip?

I'm not sure, but as much as they can flip from Texas to Florida they could flip all the way back too, but it's probably too far north, so I think some will flip back to New Orleans, though a couple could go back to Texas, I don't know. We will see.

[thetruesms]

I think the next change in the NHC track will be to speed up landfall a fair bit. I sure hope it won't be making landfall 4 days from today.

For real - I'm heading to DC for work tomorrow (I think, for now) and coming back Thursday night (again - I think, for now). I don't need both ends of my trip to be threatened

[Evil Jeremy]

[ig]http://icons-ak.wunderground.com/data/images/at201204_5day.gif[/img]

This is the biggest change I have ever seen in a single advisory track.

Same here. I can't remember anything close. Also is of course getting mighty close to original GFS which actually has been consistent all along.

I would say hurricane jeanne in 2004

I assume you're talking about the advisory when Jeanne went from a 65mph TS to a TD, and the cone, which was pointing at Florida on day 5 was switched 5 degrees East? Yea, that was a big shift.

The 5 day point also had about a 5 degree shift on Debby right now, and I think that the fact the impact is more immediate adds to the significance of the change. That is in the eye of the beholder though.

[thetraveler]

Local mets on Channel 10 out of Tampa just stated that a tornado struck in Lake Placid. It hit a subdivision near Lake June, damaged 10 houses and 1 fatality at this time. The weather seems to be letting up here for now.

[Portastorm]

Yep ... have a childhood friend who lives in Holiday, Florida, less than a mile from the Gulf and her house is flooding right now with no letup in sight. Unfortunately that will be a common tale on the Florida west coast.

[johngaltfla]

Bay News 9 just said they're closing the Skyway Bridge.

Great. And I have to go to Tampa and Clearwater tomorrow.

FYI, winds are steady 25-30 mph+ here in Sarasota near the coast but the rain has been non-stop. Just not as heavy as earlier.

[jdray]

And for the second time in four storms, Florida from Orlando north has been in the cone. Now that is rare lol....

This is shaping up to be a crazy season.

[johngaltfla]

Decouple going on?

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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Do I dare throw this out for consideration? Dissipation or perhaps weakening to a T.D. if the MLC and LLC remain separated for a prolonged period of time? Every time this storm tries to wrap around the center, it seems to burst then get sheared apart.

[AHS2011]

Looks like 2012 has been living up beyond everyone's expectations................so far.

[feederband]

Honestly the last few years I was used to checking this site only a few times...Most of the time even the long range forcast turned out to be pretty good...Its been a long time since I have seen so much uncertainty...This time last night my family called and I told them it was a Texas storm...Now today they call and tell them in a week we could be living on the Island of Florida...Who would of thought?