ATL: DEBBY - Post-Tropical

[Cyclenall]

Looks like a New Orleans nightmare from the Euro. Can't believe the Euro bulked to the GFS! What an embarrassment!! Biggest one since Hurricane Ernesto of 2006 in which I still have bad memories of .

Not yet, The GFS is still way out to lunch. So it wouldn't say it buckled. It still has a westward component.

It buckled, now much more eastward. The writing is on the wall and the moment we all saw the Euro shift eariler today, it was over for the west camp. My gut yesterday was telling me the GFS was on to something as Debby kept reaching further and further NE but I didn't want to believe it . King Euro's crown is tarnished a bit here I'm afraid. Now I'm not saying the GFS will be totally right but because it was alone for all that time (team east) while lots else was near Texas and Mexico, that is a coup for GFS IMO.

If the latest Euro were to verify that would be biblical flooding for Pensacola FL, probably some of the worst ever. Absolute worst case scenario with 30-40 inches on already very saturated soil and I would say Florida's version of TS Allison 2001. Damages would be in the billions.

[pgoss11]

Could upwelling be causing the decrease in convection? I know it's a sheared system but was wondering if upwelling could also be a contributing factor.

[cycloneye]

Could upwelling be causing the decrease in convection? I know it's a sheared system but was wondering if upwelling could also be a contributing factor.

From 4 PM CDT discussion by Avila:

THERE WILL BE SOME OPPORTUNITY FOR A SLIGHT
STRENGTHENING BEFORE THE CENTER MOVES INLAND. HOWEVER...THE CYCLONE
WILL LOCATED BE NORTH OF THE AREA OF HIGH OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT AND
THE UPWELLING COULD HALT THE INTENSIFICATION.

[Buck]

I'm glad the official forecast now calls for it to move north but I'm hoping and praying it does so much faster than they are calling for. What are the chances of this? Selfishly, I really want to spend some time in the sun at the beach (here at Cape San Blas).

[ronjon]

I'd look for a continued shift to the NE toward the big bend - perhaps as early as the 11 pm advisory based on the TVCN consensus model.

[Buck]

Do all models that are currently in agreement with the north or eastward movement also all call Debby to take her sweet time and not be done with the gulf coast until the weekend? ...or are there some models that speed her up considerably?

[Aric Dunn]

I'd look for a continued shift to the NE toward the big bend - perhaps as early as the 11 pm advisory based on the TVCN consensus model.

probably not. maybe 5am if the euro shifts east more,

[AHS2011]

Based on the 12z GFS model, New England may be in play somewhat for later in the week.

[ozonepete]

This is the biggest change I have ever seen in a single advisory track.

Same here. I can't remember anything close. Also is of course getting mighty close to original GFS which actually has been consistent all along.

[Nimbus]

Just a huge warning circle till Fri, have to wait till Debbie starts moving again before they can refine the forecast. Hurricanes that stall in uncertain steering are always a problem to forecast.

[thetraveler]

Even though I am from east Texas I am working in the Lake Placid area for now and we have been under tornado warnings for over 2 hours now. I think that is a record for me. LOL

how is it there, I have family up there on vacation for the weekend.

It is raining heavily off and on. The local mets are saying damage was noted south of the Lake Placid, trees down, a winnebego was turned over. The heavy rain is about over for now. Hopefully it will stay that way. I hope they are safe where they are at.

[psyclone]

I sure hope that thing moves faster than that or we're gonna float away!

[artist]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
441 PM EDT SUN JUN 24 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RUSKIN HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHWESTERN HERNANDO COUNTY IN FLORIDA.
WESTERN PASCO COUNTY IN FLORIDA.

* UNTIL 515 PM EDT

* AT 437 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
TORNADO NEAR MOON LAKE ESTATES...OR NEAR NEW PORT RICHEY...MOVING
NORTH AT 40 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
JASMINE ESTATES...NEW PORT RICHEY.
MOON LAKE ESTATES...BAYONET POINT.
SHADY HILLS...ARIPEKA.
SPRING HILL...HERNANDO BEACH.
WEEKI WACHEE.

[SunnyThoughts]

Three...maybe four or Five days we gotta watch this system? Well holy moley.. once that huge band gets inland...will we even have anything to watch other than a naked gyre spinning in place? lol I shouldn't make light of it, I know some places are getting buckets upon buckets of rain. HOpe everybody stays high and dry, just thankful the winds aren't any higher than they are.

[vaffie]

It is my bizarre opinion that now that Debbie is not flying northeastward any more (which is the initial input information they were using to make their forecasts) and has stalled that the next set of models coming out at midnight will shift back to the west and throw a wrench into everyone's thinking. I've seen these kinds of model shifts many times before.

[Aric Dunn]

[ig]http://icons-ak.wunderground.com/data/images/at201204_5day.gif[/img]

This is the biggest change I have ever seen in a single advisory track.

Same here. I can't remember anything close. Also is of course getting mighty close to original GFS which actually has been consistent all along.

I would say hurricane jeanne in 2004

[CrazyC83]

Could this end up become a huge East Coast rainmaker?

[CrazyC83]

Based on the 12z GFS model, New England may be in play somewhat for later in the week.

What about the Mid-Atlantic? Since that would put me into play potentially as it tracks northward...

[wxman57]

I think the next change in the NHC track will be to speed up landfall a fair bit. I sure hope it won't be making landfall 4 days from today.

[Buck]

*Prays for 12z GFS to become reality*