ATL: ISAAC - Models

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PTrackerLA
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#2941 Postby PTrackerLA » Fri Aug 24, 2012 1:13 am

Looks like the ridge is really building in at HR 72 but definitely a shift east.
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#2942 Postby Jevo » Fri Aug 24, 2012 1:13 am

Kingarabian wrote:Meriland, staying up for that 00z GFS run?


0z already happened... 6z is up next in a few hours
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#2943 Postby Kingarabian » Fri Aug 24, 2012 1:13 am

Euro comparisions:
12z:
Image

00z:
Image
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#2944 Postby Aric Dunn » Fri Aug 24, 2012 1:21 am

well thats a mighty big shift from the euro.

Image
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#2945 Postby deltadog03 » Fri Aug 24, 2012 1:21 am

HR114 its due south of Pensacola (sp) and moving due north
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#2946 Postby Aric Dunn » Fri Aug 24, 2012 1:22 am

and looky looky.. landfall almost exactly where the gfs did and the rest of the models.

Image
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#2947 Postby deltadog03 » Fri Aug 24, 2012 1:23 am

Landfall! near FL/AL border....HUGE shift EAST for the euro

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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#2948 Postby meriland23 » Fri Aug 24, 2012 1:24 am

sorry about that delay

96hr

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120hr


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#2949 Postby Aric Dunn » Fri Aug 24, 2012 1:24 am

finally we have complete model consensus !!!
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#2950 Postby Dencolo » Fri Aug 24, 2012 1:24 am

Can you say consensus? No surprise here. That's the power of the new data. Still a ways out, but at least we are dealing with a minimal spread in model results.
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#2951 Postby meriland23 » Fri Aug 24, 2012 1:24 am

isnt it going too fast in the gulf?
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#2952 Postby deltadog03 » Fri Aug 24, 2012 1:26 am

Nearly identical with euro and gfs now....I would expect a little nudge right/east for the 5am update....euro crawls this NNE onshore btw...
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#2953 Postby SunnyThoughts » Fri Aug 24, 2012 1:26 am

Glad we have a consensus, just not happy about the location of it. Thanks for posting the models guys.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#2954 Postby stormhunter7 » Fri Aug 24, 2012 1:27 am

remarkable run tonight by both gfs and euro.. this could be history in making for science and hurricane forecasting... will it hold.. who knows.. but to see both Euro and GFS this close. I'm astonished... and i bet the NHC/HRD folks are too
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#2955 Postby meriland23 » Fri Aug 24, 2012 1:27 am

substantially weaker than last run
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#2956 Postby Bocadude85 » Fri Aug 24, 2012 1:29 am

what are the chances this makes landfall in south florida first before heading to the panhandle?
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#2957 Postby Jevo » Fri Aug 24, 2012 1:31 am

0z Euro is approx 240 Miles East of the 12z run

Image

I was hoping to hear what a couple of people's thoughts were on this run... Then again it is 2:30 EST.. getting late
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#2958 Postby wxman76 » Fri Aug 24, 2012 1:31 am

The farther east you are in the Gulf the less ocean heat content there is. Also moving faster it's spending less time over water. It's great we have consensus but I am still bothered by Isaacs lack of progression poleward and the models seem to be moving it poleward faster. Just makes me wonder. hmmmm.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#2959 Postby Aric Dunn » Fri Aug 24, 2012 1:31 am

Also a big right shift in the ukmet

Image
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#2960 Postby deltadog03 » Fri Aug 24, 2012 1:31 am

moves very slow....going to be a huge rain maker as well....

DAY 6

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