ATL: ISAAC - Models

[Riptide]

Well when I said that it not hitting Hispaniola head on was a good thing for the system, its close proximity could be problematic for it as the GFS shows

It appears that the remnants of 94L affect South Florida significantly after it degenerates on the GFS.

What do you mean by significant when it's just a remnant low?

lol, mabye some flooding issues; there is alot of moisture. That's probably the best 2012 has.

[Hurricane Alexis]

It appears that the remnants of 94L affect South Florida significantly after it degenerates on the GFS.

What do you mean by significant when it's just a remnant low?

lol, mabye some flooding issues; there is alot of moisture. That's probably the best 2012 has.

I don't see why the remnant low wouldn't be able to spin up quickly after crossing Cuba and yea so far that's how it's been

[Hurricaneman]

What do you mean by significant when it's just a remnant low?

lol, mabye some flooding issues; there is alot of moisture. That's probably the best 2012 has.

I don't see why the remnant low wouldn't be able to spin up quickly after crossing Cuba and yea so far that's how it's been

Plus it could be alot stronger than modeled like a few other storms this year

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Riptide]

I wouldn't worry about, there is still alot of time to watch this and models will change dramatically in any given direction throughout the next few days. You can faintly hear the "bones" in the distance though, based on past trends this season. The MDR and Eastern Carribean has been a dead zone for developing tropical cyclones.

[Bocadude85]

What do you mean by significant when it's just a remnant low?

lol, mabye some flooding issues; there is alot of moisture. That's probably the best 2012 has.

I don't see why the remnant low wouldn't be able to spin up quickly after crossing Cuba and yea so far that's how it's been

We still have a lot of model runs to go.. they could end up showing a hurricane again tomorrow. Besides models aren't great with intensity.

[Hurricane Alexis]

I'm just hoping this develops by tomorrow so the models have a better handle on this.

[Typhoon_Willie]

We will have to wait and see what transpires. We have a long ways to go yet! The models will change as the data that is inputted into them changes. We here in the States have some time to watch this whereas our friends in the islands will have to be prepared sooner for it's arrival.

[fci]

It appears that the remnants of 94L affect South Florida significantly after it degenerates on the GFS.

lol, mabye some flooding issues; there is alot of moisture. That's probably the best 2012 has.

I don't see why the remnant low wouldn't be able to spin up quickly after crossing Cuba and yea so far that's how it's been

I've never seen a remnant low spin up quickly after crossing Cuba!

[Cyclenall]

lol, mabye some flooding issues; there is alot of moisture. That's probably the best 2012 has.

So your on board the season cancel train with me? Maybe if enough people cry season cancel the season won't be a dud (reverse physiology for the tropics ). The only systems that perform at the ones that have no hype and expectations (Chris, Gordon).

I'm sure the 00z Euro will be another massive disappointment.

[Hurricane Alexis]

lol, mabye some flooding issues; there is alot of moisture. That's probably the best 2012 has.

So your on board the season cancel train with me? Maybe if enough people cry season cancel the season won't be a dud (reverse physiology for the tropics ). The only systems that perform at the ones that have no hype and expectations (Chris, Gordon).

I'm sure the 00z Euro will be another massive disappointment.

You were right, it's worse than the GFS.

[Riptide]

lol, mabye some flooding issues; there is alot of moisture. That's probably the best 2012 has.

So your on board the season cancel train with me? Maybe if enough people cry season cancel the season won't be a dud (reverse physiology for the tropics ). The only systems that perform at the ones that have no hype and expectations (Chris, Gordon).

I'm sure the 00z Euro will be another massive disappointment.

You were right, it's worse than the GFS.

Gets off to a good start and starts breaking down 94L as it approaches the islands.

[Senobia]

[ROCK]

the EURO seems to be setting the trend now.....weaker and more west......this will make the GOM and be a nasty situation for some body.....of course with the current guidance....


Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Shuriken]

lol, mabye some flooding issues; there is alot of moisture. That's probably the best 2012 has.

So your on board the season cancel train with me? Maybe if enough people cry season cancel the season won't be a dud (reverse physiology for the tropics ). The only systems that perform at the ones that have no hype and expectations (Chris, Gordon).

It's the same almost every year -- strong cap smooshes everything in the Caribbean, leaving only two-second wonder storms along the margins. Then, closer to September, we finally get a big one and everyone's all excited again.

...but this year does remind me a lot of 2003: tons of boring tropical storms going nowhere, finally a major fish 'cane August 31, few more dull TS, then a whopper cat-5 (Isabel) which winds down before landfall, then seven more weak storms running all the way into December. Final tally was sixteen named storms, but with the Caribbean unremittingly hostile the whole season.

[ROCK]

0Z NOGAPS is jacked....still wants to pull 94L to the NW right away......

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical

[Hurricane Alexis]

the EURO seems to be setting the trend now.....weaker and more west......this will make the GOM and be a nasty situation for some body.....of course with the current guidance....


Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I'm just not buying the weak system scenario. I think 94l is gonna end up anywhere from southern florida through the NE U.S or recurve between the U.S and Bermuda.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[ROCK]

lol, mabye some flooding issues; there is alot of moisture. That's probably the best 2012 has.

So your on board the season cancel train with me? Maybe if enough people cry season cancel the season won't be a dud (reverse physiology for the tropics ). The only systems that perform at the ones that have no hype and expectations (Chris, Gordon).

It's the same almost every year -- strong cap smooshes everything in the Caribbean, leaving only two-second wonder storms along the margins. Then, closer to September, we finally get a big one and everyone's all excited again.

...but this year does remind me a lot of 2003: tons of boring tropical storms going nowhere, finally a major fish 'cane August 31, few more dull TS, then a whopper cat-5 (Isabel) which winds down before landfall, then seven more weak storms running all the way into December. Final tally was sixteen named storms, but with the Caribbean unremittingly hostile the whole season.

better knock on some word...bro.....this is the real deal and will be horrific for somebody.....

[ROCK]

the EURO seems to be setting the trend now.....weaker and more west......this will make the GOM and be a nasty situation for some body.....of course with the current guidance....


Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I'm just not buying the weak system scenario. I think 94l is gonna end up anywhere from southern florida through the NE U.S or recurve between the U.S and Bermuda.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Have you looked at it lately? not in a hurry by no means....the SW convection looks to be the domminant feature attm...

[rainstorm]

the EURO seems to be setting the trend now.....weaker and more west......this will make the GOM and be a nasty situation for some body.....of course with the current guidance....


Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I'm just not buying the weak system scenario. I think 94l is gonna end up anywhere from southern florida through the NE U.S or recurve between the U.S and Bermuda.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Have you looked at it lately? not in a hurry by no means....the SW convection looks to be the domminant feature attm...

thats just the ITCZ. when all the models say nothing, nothing is what you get. peak of the season and nothing, even JB has stopped tweeting about a repeat of 54

[Nimbus]

Moving west near 20 knots and both Ernesto and 7 actually sped up a little till they got past Jamaica. There is a higher probability that the fast forward speed would hinder development in the near term thus the model shifts towards weak and west solutions.

GFS and HWRF are tracking over Guadalupe again into the Caribbean. If there was a rapid intensification earlier into a deeper system the BAMD model pushes south which probably indicates they are expecting strong ridging over the southeast ConUS at that time with the systems current forward speed.

That argues against an early recurve or an immediate track up the East coast. The system could stall late in the forecast and get pulled north by a weakness somewhere though.

Still a fair probability of a landfall anywhere from Mexico to the Florida panhandle (just an opinion).