1st Super Typhoon of the year and the strongest worldwide!130 knots and forecast to intensify to a mind boggling 150 knots? 
WTPN31 PGTW 161500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. SUPER TYPHOON 05W (GUCHOL) WARNING NR 023
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
161200Z --- NEAR 15.0N 128.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 325 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.0N 128.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 17.5N 127.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 145 KT, GUSTS 175 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 20.0N 127.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 150 KT, GUSTS 180 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 22.4N 127.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 150 KT, GUSTS 180 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 25.5N 129.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 22 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 32.1N 135.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 22 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 37.4N 144.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 22 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 40.9N 154.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
161500Z POSITION NEAR 15.6N 128.6E.
SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 05W (GUCHOL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 680 NM SOUTH
OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. STY 05W HAS RECENTLY BEEN UPGRADED TO STY
STATUS BASED ON THE PRESENCE OF A SUSTAINED EYE WITH IMPROVING
OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 161200Z IS 43 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 162100Z, 170300Z, 170900Z AND 171500Z.//
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WDPN31 PGTW 161500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR SUPER TYPHOON 05W (GUCHOL) WARNING NR
23//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 05W (GUCHOL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 680 NM
SOUTH OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. STY 05W HAS RECENTLY BEEN UPGRADED TO STY
STATUS BASED ON THE PRESENCE OF A SUSTAINED EYE IN ENHANCED
INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY ALONG WITH IMPROVING OUTFLOW. EIR
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A SYMMETRIC EYE, APPROXIMATELY 15 NM WIDE.
A 161137Z SSMIS 91 GHZ IMAGE DEPICTS THE CONVECTIVELY CONCENTRIC
RING ENCOMPASSING THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC).
ADDITIONALLY, A LARGER, SECONDARY HALF-MOON OF DEEP CONVECTION
RESIDES OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. THE INITIAL POSITION WAS
BASED ON THE APPARENT EYE IN THE ABOVE MENTIONED IMAGERY WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WAS BASED ON CONGRUENT DVORAK
ESTIMATES OF 127 KNOTS FROM PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES A SELF-INDUCED MESO-ANTICYCLONE OVER THE LLCC
WHICH IS PROVIDING FOR AMPLE OUTFLOW, WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS), AND EXCELLENT DIVERGENCE ALOFT. THE TROPICAL UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC TROUGHING (TUTT) THAT WAS NORTH OF THE SYSTEM IS NO
LONGER DISCERNABLE IN ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. CONSEQUENTLY,
POLEWARD OUTFLOW SEEMS TO BE SPREADING OUT MORE WHEN COMPARED TO
SIX HOURS AGO DUE TO THE ELIMINATION OF PRESSURE THAT WAS CAUSED BY
THE TUTT. STY 05W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR).
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. STY 05W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD
THROUGH TAU 24. UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING CURRENTLY SUPPORTING MID-
LATITUDE CYCLOGENISIS OCCURRING OVER THE SEA OF JAPAN WILL CONTINUE
TO WEAKEN THE STEERING STR AND ALLOW STY 05W TO ROUND THE
NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY BETWEEN TAUS 24-36. STY 05W SHOULD CONTINUE
TO INTENSIFY DUE TO SUSTAINED FAVORABLE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
(SST) (26-29 DEGREES CELSIUS) AND IMPROVING POLEWARD OUTFLOW OUT
AHEAD AND INTO THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGHING. BY TAU 48 STY GUCHOL
SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN DUE TO INCREASING VWS AND DECREASING SST (26-
24 DEGREES CELSIUS). FURTHER WEAKENING WILL OCCUR BY TAU 72 AS THE
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED LIMITING FACTORS INCREASE IN MAGNITUDE AND THE
SYSTEM BEGINS EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT). THE ONLY FACTOR THAT
COULD LIMIT THE FORECAST INTENSIFICATION WOULD BE A POSSIBLE
EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE. AS NOTED ABOVE IN THE SSMIS MICROWAVE
IMAGE, A SECONDARY OUTER CONVECTIVE HALF-RING SEEMS TO BE FORMING.
THIS OUTER RING COULD CLOSE OFF AND SUFFOCATE THE INNER CORE WHICH
WOULD LIMIT THE FORECAST INTENSIFICATION BUT ALSO INCREASE THE
RADIUS OF MAX WINDS. THIS SITUATION WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED OVER
THE NEXT 36 HOURS. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN VERY TIGHT AGREEMENT
THROUGH TAU 48 AND BEGINS TO SPREAD AT TAU 72. THEREFORE, THERE IS
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL PORTION OF THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.
C. IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST, STY 05W SHOULD BECOME FULLY
ABSORBED IN THE BAROCLINIC ZONE BY TAU 96, EAST OF JAPAN. STY 05W
IS EXPECTED TO ENCOUNTER STRONG VWS AND COOLER SST (21-24 DEGREES
CELSIUS) AND SHOULD ACCELERATE AS IT BEGINS ETT. EVEN THOUGH THE
SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN RAPIDLY DUE TO THE HIGH VWS AND INTERACTION WITH
LAND, IT SHOULD MAINTAIN GALE-FORCE WINDS AS AN EXTRA-TROPICAL LOW.
NUMERICAL MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH EACH
SUCCESSIVE RUN. THE TRACKERS WHICH TAKE THE LLCC ACROSS MAINLAND
JAPAN SEEM UNLIKELY AS THE JET IS FORECAST TO BE OVER JAPAN BY THAT
TIME AND THE EXTREME TOPOGRAPHY IN THE REGION WOULD ALSO ACT TO
BLOCK SUCH TRAJECTORIES. THE JTWC FORECAST IS RIGHT OF, AND FASTER
THAN CONSENSUS DURING THIS TIME TO ACCOUNT FOR THE ETT TIMING AND
TO OFFSET THE SLOWER MODEL TRACKERS. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE TRACK FORECAST BASED ON THE TREND OF
TIGHTER GROUPING.//
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