ATL: BERYL - Post-Tropical

[lebron23]

Looks like several rotations on the satellite loop. Makes a big difference which center takes over. Could form a good bit farther north of where the models have been projecting if that northern center off the NC coast takes over.

After looking at many different sat. loops I agree with you.

[bg1]

Not sure to put this in the models thread or this thread.

Everyone seems to be talking about a possible landfall in Florida. What are the models saying after that? Will it cross into the Gulf or cross back off the East Coast? Will it still have the atmosphere to strengthen?

[lebron23]

Not sure to put this in the models thread or this thread.

Everyone seems to be talking about a possible landfall in Florida. What are the models saying after that? Will it cross into the Gulf or cross back off the East Coast? Will it still have the atmosphere to strengthen?

It's expected to cross back off the East Coast. No gulf worries with this one.

[wxman57]

Not sure to put this in the models thread or this thread.

Everyone seems to be talking about a possible landfall in Florida. What are the models saying after that? Will it cross into the Gulf or cross back off the East Coast? Will it still have the atmosphere to strengthen?

Looks like it may stall just inland Sunday night and be picked up by an approaching cold front by Tuesday and driven back to the NNE-NE, but probably as just a rain system not a TC.

[ozonepete]

I was thinking earlier this morning that the one by N.C. would be the one to develop but no longer.

Looking at the latest satellite loops it looks to me like the N.C. swirl has gotten elongated and is almost dissipated/absorbed now. The other one that Aric pointed out at 29.5 75.5 looks to be holding together pretty well and has already moved ENE of that location at a pretty good clip.

[NDG]

Looks like several rotations on the satellite loop. Makes a big difference which center takes over. Could form a good bit farther north of where the models have been projecting if that northern center off the NC coast takes over.

After looking at many different sat. loops I agree with you.

But surface pressures are currently higher on the northern vorticity off of the NC coast than where the vorticity closer to 30N.

[northjaxpro]

Looks like several rotations on the satellite loop. Makes a big difference which center takes over. Could form a good bit farther north of where the models have been projecting if that northern center off the NC coast takes over.

After looking at many different sat. loops I agree with you.

But surface pressures are currently higher on the northern vorticity off of the NC coast than where the vorticity closer to 30N.

I agree. The vort Aric has pointed out looks to be one I believe will become the dominant one. We'll find out very soon.

[lebron23]

Am I the only one that thinks 94L was better organized yesterday..?

[northjaxpro]

Also, NHC has scheduled REcon to fly out tomorrow afternoon to 94L

NOUS42 KNHC 251445
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1045 AM EDT FRI 25 MAY 2012
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 26/1100Z TO 27/1100Z MAY 2012
TCPOD NUMBER.....12-007

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70 FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 71
A. 26/1800Z A. 27/1200Z
B. AFXXX 01XXA INVEST B. AFXXX 0202A CYCLONE
C. 26/1515Z C. 27/0915Z
D. 33.0N 77.0W D. 30.8N 79.5W
E. 26/1730Z TO 26/2130Z E. 27/1130Z TO 27/1630Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: POSSIBLE 28/0000Z FIX
NEAR 30.8N 81.0W IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS.

[Aric Dunn]

Shear is dropping pretty quick. especially on the south end. near the carolinas still 60 kts.

[NDG]

Am I the only one that thinks 94L was better organized yesterday..?

I agree with you too, but it was a quick one, as soon it starter gaining height it was torn apart by the shear.
Today will be transitioning and start looking more like cyclone (not tropical), it will start getting subtropical/tropical charecteristics as it starts retrograding westward over the gulfstream tomorrow and Sunday.

[Bocadude85]

If the low near 29.5 N is the low that does eventually develop how much effect would that have on the track? Are we talking about a track as far south a Daytona Beach possibly?

[thundercam96]

Some Models Have A St. Augustine-New Smyrna Beach Landfall

-Daytona Beach

[Hurricane Andrew]

Jax, that is showing 2 flights for tommorow to 94L?

[Hurricane Andrew]

Code: Select all

NOUS42 KNHC 251445
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1045 AM EDT FRI 25 MAY 2012
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
         VALID 26/1100Z TO 27/1100Z MAY 2012
         TCPOD NUMBER.....12-007

I.  ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
    1. SUSPECT AREA
       FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70         FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 71
       A. 26/1800Z                   A. 27/1200Z
       B. AFXXX 01XXA INVEST         B. AFXXX 0202A CYCLONE
       C. 26/1515Z                   C. 27/0915Z
       D. 33.0N 77.0W                D. 30.8N 79.5W
       E. 26/1730Z TO 26/2130Z       E. 27/1130Z TO 27/1630Z
       F. SFC TO 10,000 FT           F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

    2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: POSSIBLE 28/0000Z FIX
       NEAR 30.8N 81.0W IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS.


http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAREPRPD.shtml

[northjaxpro]

Jax, that is showing 2 flights for tommorow to 94L?

Yes, one is planned at 18Z tomorrow, and another scheduled for Sunday morning at 12Z.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

The low continues to move northward more than I anticipated. The only way this could strike Florida is if once the shear abates a new low center can successfully fire off convection further south. I know I am going against the models in saying this but I think it's moving too far north too fast.
Disclaimer: not an official forecast

[lebron23]

The models will swing both ways, as we learned from the past few years.

[crimi481]

This is one strange system. Almost looks like the southern portion of this long Tail - may be where a Low spins up

http://weather.hawaii.edu/satellite/sti ... verlay=off

http://weather.hawaii.edu/satellite/sti ... verlay=off

[Hurricane Andrew]

Did tropical atlantic just crash for anyone else?