EPAC: BUD - Post-Tropical

[Yellow Evan]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... 0-lalo.jpg

Looking very nice right now

[MGC]

Good chance of an upgrade to hurricane considering how rapidly convection is exploding near the center. Will be interesting to see what recon finds tomorrow......MGC

[Yellow Evan]

Looking very nice right now

[Yellow Evan]

Good chance of an upgrade to hurricane considering how rapidly convection is exploding near the center. Will be interesting to see what recon finds tomorrow......MGC

Can't wait for recon tomorrow.

['CaneFreak]

I am certainly not drinking the EURO's Koolaid...seems a little too ambitious...I think a track similar to it's solution may be accurate but not in terms of intensity. It is WAY too early for the kind of development that the EURO shows. SSTs in the continental shelf are still in the low to mid 70s. We shall see...

[Kingarabian]

Remains a tropical storm @ 70mph winds.

[boca]

I am certainly not drinking the EURO's Koolaid...seems a little too ambitious...I think a track similar to it's solution may be accurate but not in terms of intensity. It is WAY too early for the kind of development that the EURO shows. SSTs in the continental shelf are still in the low to mid 70s. We shall see...

Agreed,If the water temps were in the low to mid 80's maybe.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Storm Watch issued


BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BUD ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022012
800 PM PDT WED MAY 23 2012

...BUD ALMOST A HURRICANE...
...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR PART OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.2N 107.9W
ABOUT 410 MI...655 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.26 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH ALONG THE
PACIFIC COAST FROM PUNTA SAN TELMO TO LA FORTUNA.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BUD WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 107.9 WEST. BUD IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/H. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD
THE NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE
CENTER OF BUD IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF
MEXICO BY LATE FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 70 MPH...110
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND BUD IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A
HURRICANE ON THURSDAY. SOME SLIGHT WEAKENING IS FORECAST TO BEGIN
BY FRIDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 991 MB...29.26 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST IN
THE WATCH AREA BY LATE FRIDAY.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...1100 PM PDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN

TROPICAL STORM BUD DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022012
800 PM PDT WED MAY 23 2012

BUD CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY ORGANIZE. LAST-LIGHT VISIBLE IMAGERY
REVEALED THE FORMATION OF A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST AND HINTED AT A
FORMATIVE BANDING-TYPE EYE. OUTER BANDING FEATURES HAVE ALSO BEEN
INCREASING. IN ADDITION...A 0050 UTC SSMIS PASS INDICATED A
CLOSED LOW- TO MID-LEVEL EYE. DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES
WERE A CONSENSUS T3.5 AT 0000 UTC. SINCE THAT TIME...CLOUD TOP
TEMPERATURES IN THE NEWLY-FORMED CDO HAVE COOLED SIGNIFICANTLY WITH
A WARM SPOT OCCASIONALLY APPEARING. THE LATEST 3-HOURLY AVERAGED
ADT VALUES HAVE ALSO INCREASED TO T4.2. BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS..
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO A CONSERVATIVE 60 KT.

OVER WARM WATERS AND IN A LIGHT-SHEAR AND RELATIVELY MOIST
ENVIRONMENT...BUD SHOULD REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH SHORTLY. BEYOND
24 HOURS...PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS...A DRIER AND MORE STABLE
ENVIRONMENT...AND SOME MARGINAL INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY SHEAR WILL
LIKELY INDUCE WEAKENING. THE PROXIMITY OF THE TRACK TO SOUTHWESTERN
MEXICO IN 48-72 HOURS SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR LAND INTERACTION
AND AN EVEN FASTER WEAKENING THAN PREDICTED. EITHER THE LESS
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT OR INTERACTION WITH THE MEXICAN COAST SHOULD
CONTRIBUTE TO WEAKENING TO REMNANT LOW STATUS LATER IN THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL NHC INTENSITY IS SIMILAR TO BUT SLIGHTLY HIGHER
THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE AND CLOSEST TO THE FSSE MODEL OUTPUT.

THE LATEST FIXES INDICATE THAT THE TRACK OF BUD HAS BENT TO THE
RIGHT...WITH THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE NOW 350/05. RESPONDING TO
A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SOUTHWEST OF MEXICO...BUD
HAS GRADUALLY TURNED TOWARD THE NORTH AT A CONSIDERABLY SLOWER
FORWARD SPEED DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS AS THE CYCLONE
COMES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWARD
FROM THE BAJA PENINSULA. IN 48-72 HOURS...THE CENTER OF BUD IS
FORECAST TO APPROACH THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO AND SLOW DOWN
FURTHER AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE LIFTS OUT AND LEAVES THE
CYCLONE IN A REGION OF WEAK STEERING. THE MORE RELIABLE GFS AND
ECMWF MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE CENTER OF BUD WILL BE VERY CLOSE TO
THE COAST AROUND THIS TIME...POSSIBLY EVEN ONSHORE. THESE MODELS
THEN DEPICT A WEAKER AND SHALLOWER SYSTEM...POSSIBLY AS THE RESULT
OF ITS INTERACTION WITH LAND...BEING STEERED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD OR
SOUTHWESTWARD AWAY FROM MEXICO WHILE THE REGIONAL DYNAMICAL
GUIDANCE SHOWS A STRONGER SYSTEM MOVING NORTHWARD. THE GUIDANCE IS
TIGHTLY CLUSTERED THROUGH ABOUT 48 HOURS...BUT THE SPREAD INCREASES
SUBSTANTIALLY THEREAFTER. THE OFFICIAL NHC FORECAST IS NOT TOO
DISSIMILAR FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS LARGELY A BLEND OF THE
WEAKER ECMWF/GFS SOLUTIONS AFTER 48 HOURS.

GIVEN THE NEW FORECAST TRACK...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/0300Z 14.2N 107.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 24/1200Z 15.0N 107.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 25/0000Z 16.1N 107.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 25/1200Z 17.5N 106.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 26/0000Z 18.4N 105.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 27/0000Z 19.0N 105.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 28/0000Z 18.5N 106.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
120H 29/0000Z 18.0N 107.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN

[Chacor]

...BUD ALMOST A HURRICANE... ...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR PART OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...

[Yellow Evan]

Yay, intermediate adv will now be issued.

[Kingarabian]

What time will Recon arrive in PST?

[cycloneye]

What time will Recon arrive in PST?

At 20:00z or 4 PM EDT / 1 PM PDT.

TROPICAL STORM BUD
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 75
A. 24/2000Z
B. AFXXX 0102E BUD
C. 24/1415Z
D. 15.4N 107.7W
E. 24/1930Z TO 24/2230Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

[Cyclenall]

Hopefully Bud doesn't weaken before the plane arrives on Thursday around 2000 UTC or 4 PM EDT,because it will be a very interesting mission to watch the data.

I agree.

Very impressive, shouldn't be long before the intermittent eye feature re-appears and stays.

THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO A CONSERVATIVE 60 KT.

It's likely a hurricane right now and I wouldn't be surprised to see 65 knots by the intermediate advisory and 70 knots by 5:00 am EDT one. CDO is really expanding and wrapping around so it wouldn't surprise me to find the next RI spurt occurring.

I really liked the latest NHC discussion, a turn-around from the one yesterday. The first paragraph had all the info and made sense. Now they are indicating it could hit the coast but the track still doesn't touch landmass. The product that shows the past track doesn't show that bend to the right, why?

[Yellow Evan]

Given the uncertainty, NHC is probably waiting for recon to go with a landfall.

[ROCK]

0Z GFS not as bullish as the EURO....does close it off around 72hrs and drives it into the EC. Weak though.....the EURO really goes nuts with it. Still some potential out there....sst's not great but could support a named storm.


http://wxmaps.org/pix/hurpot.html#ATL

[NDG]

If it starts a hybrid system it does not have to have the 26 deg C SSTs, it may gain some tropical charecteristics as it retrogrades closer to FL, if the euro is right.

00z Euro continues to be very aggressive with development, on this run it gets the low pressure further west making landfall near Daytona Sunday night heading inland before getting back to the Atlantic as the ridge begins to weaken early next week.

[Kingarabian]

First Hurricane of the 2012 Hurricane season!

...BUD BECOMES A HURRICANE...

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 75 MPH...120
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. BUD IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS
FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SOME SLIGHT WEAKENING IS
FORECAST TO BEGIN BY FRIDAY.

24/0600 UTC 14.7N 107.5W T4.0/4.0 BUD -- East Pacific

[Cyclenall]

Well it happened, Bud has burst and is now the first hurricane of the western hemisphere in 2012!!! . I knew since May 13th that it was going to become a hurricane. Bud has lived up to its 2006 self. I first learned of it from a TWN tweet:

* KMacTWN -- BUD has become the first HURRICANE of the season in the NE Pacific. It's sitting off the SW coast of Mexico. Winds 120km/h.

I believe this action will have broken a few more records. Looking at it now, Hurricane Bud looks completely different than what it looked like just 12 hours ago. It looks like a mature hurricane with the deep convection wrapped all the way around the eye. Appears to be getting smaller like I suspected but only by cloud/convection coverage.

It's likely a hurricane right now and I wouldn't be surprised to see 65 knots by the intermediate advisory and 70 knots by 5:00 am EDT one. CDO is really expanding and wrapping around so it wouldn't surprise me to find the next RI spurt occurring.

Its actually beyond this now, NRL lists it at 75 knots with a pressure of 982 mb!! Maybe brunota2003's RI forecast wasn't bullish after all .

[Kingarabian]

Hurricane Watch Issued.
000
WTPZ42 KNHC 240857
TCDEP2

HURRICANE BUD DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022012
200 AM PDT THU MAY 24 2012

CONVENTIONAL AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW THAT BUD HAS
CONTINUED TO QUICKLY ORGANIZE. A WELL-DEFINED EYE WAS SEEN IN THE
LAST COUPLE OF MICROWAVE IMAGES BETWEEN 0300-0500 UTC...AND MORE
RECENTLY A RAGGED EYE HAS BECOME APPARENT IN INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY. OBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM UW/CIMSS HAVE INCREASED
TO T4.6 AND SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 4.5
AND 4.0...RESPECTIVELY. BASED ON THESE DATA...THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 75 KT.

BUD APPEARS TO HAVE ABOUT ANOTHER 12-18 HOURS IN FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS IN WHICH TO STRENGTHEN. AFTER THAT
TIME...COOLER WATERS...INCREASING SOUTHERLY SHEAR...AND A DRIER
AND MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD INDUCE WEAKENING. AS BUD
APPROACHES SOUTHWEST MEXICO...LAND INTERACTION IS LIKELY TO
HASTEN THE WEAKENING PROCESS. THE UPDATED NHC FORECAST IS HIGHER
THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE IN THE SHORT TERM DUE TO THE HIGHER INITIAL
INTENSITY. THEREAFTER...IT IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
AND IS CLOSEST TO THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE.

BUD HAS BEEN MOVING A LITTLE EAST OF DUE NORTH OVERNIGHT...WITH AN
INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 010/6. THE HURRICANE IS FORECAST TO TURN
NORTHEASTWARD TODAY AS A TROUGH DEEPENS ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE
UNITED STATES. AS BUD APPROACHES THE COAST OF SOUTHWEST MEXICO...
THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN AS THE TROUGH LIFTS OUT.
HOWEVER...THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A STRONGER
CYCLONE MOVING MORE QUICKLY NORTHWARD INTO MEXICO. THE TYPICALLY
RELIABLE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS SUGGEST BUD IS LIKELY TO DECOUPLE
WITH THE MID-LEVEL CENTER CONTINUING NORTHWARD...WHILE THE
LOW-LEVEL CENTER REMAINS NEAR THE COAST. THE GUIDANCE IS IN
RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT DURING THE FIRST 36 HOURS. THEREAFTER
THERE IS LESS CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK FORECAST AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED MODEL SPREAD INCREASES SIGNIFICANTLY. THE NHC
FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND FOLLOWS THE
GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS.

BASED ON THE NEW FORECAST...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR A PORTION OF THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF
MEXICO. BECAUSE OF THE LARGE AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK
AND INTENSITY FORECASTS...A HURRICANE WATCH HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED
FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF HURRICANE FORCE WINDS REACHING THE COAST
OF SOUTHWEST MEXICO.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/0900Z 15.0N 107.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 24/1800Z 15.9N 107.1W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 25/0600Z 17.1N 106.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 25/1800Z 18.2N 106.1W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 26/0600Z 18.9N 105.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 27/0600Z 19.0N 106.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 28/0600Z 18.5N 107.0W 25 KT 30 MPH
120H 29/0600Z 18.0N 108.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

[Kingarabian]

Approaching Mexico...