ATL: DEBBY - Post-Tropical

[TheShrimper]

00z Best Track

AL, 96, 2012062200, , BEST, 0, 220N, 890W, 20, 1007, LO

http://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/inve ... 012.invest

yep that is just inland over the Yucatan...

22N doesn't even graze the northern coast of the Yucatan.

[wxman57]

I'll bet someone here has the new link to the model data ftp site:

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/stext/

[windnrain]

Please, please, PLEASE come to texas. We REALLY need the rain out here.

[Radiogirltx]

I enjoy spending my summers tracking storms with you guys, but I gotta say... This little guy has piss-poor timing. I live on the mid-tx coast, and will be flying out of Houston on the 30th to vaca in Key West. Boo.....

[vaffie]

Latest spaghetti plot

https://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images/weather/plots/storm_96.gif

[HurricaneBrain]

I enjoy spending my summers tracking storms with you guys, but I gotta say... This little guy has piss-poor timing. I live on the mid-tx coast, and will be flying out of Houston on the 30th to vaca in Key West. Boo.....

So are you saying you want to stay in Houston to witness the storm or that your vacation plans are ruined?

[cycloneye]

I'll bet someone here has the new link to the model data ftp site:

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/stext/

Here it is.

ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/stext/

[wxman57]

Thanks, I thought I remembered the ftp site switching back to the NHC server.

[tropicwatch]

00z Best Track

AL, 96, 2012062200, , BEST, 0, 220N, 890W, 20, 1007, LO

http://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/inve ... 012.invest

yep that is just inland over the Yucatan...

22N doesn't even graze the northern coast of the Yucatan.

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Uploaded with ImageShack.us[/img]

[Hurricaneman]

Latest spaghetti plot

https://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images/weather/plots/storm_96.gif

Most of those models hit the big bend of Florida

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[brunota2003]

All but the UKMET take 96L in the direction of Florida...with most (but not all) ensemble members taking 96L over Florida and out into the Atlantic (per the map/plot posted above).

It seems to me that if 96L organizes quickly, it'll be a deeper system, with a much higher likelihood of being picked up by the incoming trough and shuttled out to the NE...if it takes longer to organize, it may be left behind, where weaker steering currents will push it toward the west.

Not really a forecast, but:

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[tolakram]

saved

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Please, please, PLEASE come to texas. We REALLY need the rain out here.

There is a lot of uncertainty with the models so this is a wait and see situation. But I hope
you all in Texas get some drought relief, hopefully it won't be a hurricane or TS that
dumps too much rain (like allison was, I'm not saying this will be anything like allison).
The best case scenario would be a big sloppy slug of moisture into Texas without the
winds being bad.

[JonathanBelles]

A wet week for Florida...Louisiana...Texas?? We'll have to wait and see.

http://jonathanbelles.wordpress.com/201 ... d-on-high/

[carpe vinum]

That Cat 7 emerging from N. Carolina in the last frames of NOGAPS is, uh... well, er...

[Radiogirltx]

I enjoy spending my summers tracking storms with you guys, but I gotta say... This little guy has piss-poor timing. I live on the mid-tx coast, and will be flying out of Houston on the 30th to vaca in Key West. Boo.....

So are you saying you want to stay in Houston to witness the storm or that your vacation plans are ruined?

I do love tracking storms..... But I love KW just a bit more.

Basically i hate these couple of days of not knowing where she's going, trying to decide if we need to modify our plans.... But once LLC forms I'll feel better, cause then there won't be "as much" uncertainty.

[cycloneye]

18z GFS ensembles are all over the place.



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[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

A wet week for Florida...Louisiana...Texas?? We'll have to wait and see.

http://jonathanbelles.wordpress.com/201 ... d-on-high/

Excellent write-up. It will be a very interesting period.

[windnrain]

Please, please, PLEASE come to texas. We REALLY need the rain out here.

There is a lot of uncertainty with the models so this is a wait and see situation. But I hope
you all in Texas get some drought relief, hopefully it won't be a hurricane or TS that
dumps too much rain (like allison was, I'm not saying this will be anything like allison).
The best case scenario would be a big sloppy slug of moisture into Texas without the
winds being bad.

Honestly we'll take anything.

There is this thing called hydromet.

http://hydromet.lcra.org/full.aspx

Doubleclick anywhere on the map and you will see a lot of river gauges with "0"
Meaning, of course, dry.

[northjaxpro]

A wet week for Florida...Louisiana...Texas?? We'll have to wait and see.

http://jonathanbelles.wordpress.com/201 ... d-on-high/

Excellent analysis Jonathan.