ATL: SANDY - Remnants - Discussion

[floridasun78]

I have two questions, and thank you to whoever answers them. First, will Sandy's stationary status affect its ultimate path? Second, is there any (reasonable) chance that Sandy might go closer to S Fl (could we wake up in the morning and see the cone closer to that area)?
There seems to be such a near consensus on her path several days out. Usually, there are hundreds of miles of possible error/changes in the path this far out.
I really appreciate your time in explaining these points.

what i see from nhc their fell good with track toward Bahamas out to sea

[cycloneye]

The 00z SHIP RI forecast has increased bigtime.

Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 67% is 5.3 times the sample mean(12.8%)
Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 64% is 7.6 times the sample mean( 8.4%)
Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 45% is 9.0 times the sample mean( 5.0%)
Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 29% is 8.4 times the sample mean( 3.4%)

[Blown Away]

The NHC still respects the ECMWF to mention it in their discussions, but many times this season it has been way off track compared to GFS. Seems it will be way off with Sandy too.

[CrazyC83]

IMO, a quicker intensification now = more likely to recurve and go out to sea, as opposed to hit the trough. Still that would be bad for the Caribbean!!!

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[floridasun78]

here you see shift to west a bit of cone http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2012/gr ... 5NLW.shtml

[Blown Away]

I love Joe Bastardi for his weather passion and his willingness to go against the grain.
All weather forecasters are wrong sometimes.

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM SANDY ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012
1100 PM EDT MON OCT 22 2012

...SANDY MOVING LITTLE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY WEDNESDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.7N 78.6W
ABOUT 385 MI...620 KM SSW OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES

[cycloneye]

Interesting excerpt from 11 PM discussion.

BY DAYS 4 AND 5...HOWEVER...THE MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THE
NORMALLY RELIABLE ECMWF TAKING SANDY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD CLOSER TO
THE U.S. SOUTHEAST COAST...WHEREAS THE GFS...HWRF...GFDL...AND
OTHER LESS RELIABLE MODELS TAKE THE CYCLONE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD.
GIVEN THE HISTORICAL RELIABILITY OF THE ECMWF MODEL...THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST TRACK REMAINS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK...AND
LIES CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE TVCA AND TV15 CONSENSUS MODELS...AND
THE FLORIDA STATE SUPERENSEMBLE MODEL.

[gatorcane]

Well that was an enjoyable discussion to read from Stewart. You have to respect the ECMWF until/if it shifts eastward. Still looks good for Florida but this is going to be a large system with impacts well away from the center. Fortunately for Florida, the west side is the better side of the system to be on as far as impacts.

[cycloneye]

[floridasun78]

]http://oi49.tinypic.com/wsqtjl.jpg

cone have more a bit more toward west http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2012/gr ... 5NLW.shtml you see it on loop

[Buck]

I'll be praying for those in Jamaica, Cuba and the Bahamas.

[chaser1]

I'm starting to think, someone let the octopus out of the bag - signs of increasing banding and some new bursting taking place near the center. I think we're going to see a bomb go off right over center sometime between now and daylight.

Anyone happen to know if the gulfstreams got up today, and if their samplings were to be incorporated into tonights runs?

[cycloneye]

I'll be praying for those in Jamaica, Cuba and the Bahamas.

Dont forget Haiti as they may get a ton of rain from this even if the center does not move over that country and we know what kind of terrain Haiti has.

[stephen23]

How would early hurricane status before wednesday effect Sandy's projected path?

[floridasun78]

I'm starting to think, someone let the octopus out of the bag - signs of increasing banding and some new bursting taking place near the center. I think we're going to see a bomb go off right over center sometime between now and daylight.

Anyone happen to know if the gulfstreams got up today, and if their samplings were to be incorporated into tonights runs?

no plan yet to send gulfstreams jet

[floridasun78]

How would early hurricane status before wednesday effect Sandy's projected path?

more stronger more pole ward can go if i not mistaking

[stephen23]

So maybe a little to west on the cone then?

[SouthDadeFish]

Deep convection firing:

[floridasun78]

So maybe a little to west on the cone then?

it have did already look my link above