WPAC: JELAWAT - Post-Tropical

[Hurricane_Luis]

Updated Position

[cycloneye]

Web Cam in Okinawa that updates every minute.

[Aslkahuna]

About the question concerning longevity as a Supertyphoon. STY Joan was carried as a super for on the advisories from 17/06Z Oct through 21/12Z Oct or for 102 hours. Jelawat was so carried from 23/18Z through 27//18Z or 96 hours so Joan remains the record holder in this regard for storm SOLELY within WPAC. Ioke, as has been pointed out, was a dual region storm. As an aside, Joan was carried at a peak of 160kt and at the same time STY Ivan was further to the west also at 160kt. Ivan was not a super as long as Joan.

Steve

[brunota2003]

Kadena moved from TCCOR-1C to TCCOR-1E about 45 minutes ago...meaning winds there are already exceeding 50 knots sustained.

"TCCOR-1E EMERGENCY: Destructive sustained winds of 50 knots or greater occurring. All outside activities are prohibited."

Saw quite a few facebook posts saying things are already worse than the last one in some areas.

[phwxenthusiast]

highest winds so far around the Ryukyu.. sustained was 70kt/130kph and i also found a gust of 115kt/215kph... lowest pressure recorded so far was in Miyakojima at 952hPa occurring at midnight last night when the eye passed within 50km of the island...

[CrazyC83]

highest winds so far around the Ryukyu.. sustained was 70kt/130kph and i also found a gust of 115kt/215kph... lowest pressure recorded so far was in Miyakojima at 952hPa occurring at midnight last night when the eye passed within 50km of the island...

That was a peripheral pressure I would assume. Based on that distance outside the RMW, the pressure was probably about 937mb at the time.

[CrazyC83]

Naha City station now reporting a pressure of 963mb with winds about 52 kt sustained (gust 85 kt).

[brunota2003]

Saw a video on Kadena AB facebook page from the Awase area, near a fish market. Winds looked like they were near 60 knots sustained, give or take.

http://www.facebook.com/photo.php?v=4293167540270

[CrazyC83]

Eye near? Down to light rain showers at the reporting station, pressure 956mb, winds 60 kt gusting to near 90 kt.

[brunota2003]

Yeah...the eye is nearing.

[Infdidoll]

Wow! I knew this one was going to be intense for friends on Oki simply because of the trek it is taking. The damage from Songda last year was the most damaging typhoon we had while I was there. Reportedly, the last ones who have come through have been bad, but this one is much stronger than Songda hitting from a similar angle so there will be a lot of storm damage.

Numerous people have reported a car flipped over on Camp Foster, the roof of one of the restaurants on Camp Foster is also coming loose from one source. More damage reports being talked about on the Kadena Facebook page. Also sounds like a lot of those complacent people are learning their lesson.

[Infdidoll]

https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid ... e=1&ref=nf

Flipped car, Camp Foster, Okinawa
Nobody is IN the car. The headlights came on when it flipped.

https://sphotos-a.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos- ... 3730_n.jpg
Trashed shed.

[brunota2003]

Wow! I knew this one was going to be intense for friends on Oki simply because of the trek it is taking. The damage from Songda last year was the most damaging typhoon we had while I was there. Reportedly, the last ones who have come through have been bad, but this one is much stronger than Songda hitting from a similar angle so there will be a lot of storm damage.

Numerous people have reported a car flipped over on Camp Foster, the roof of one of the restaurants on Camp Foster is also coming loose from one source. More damage reports being talked about on the Kadena Facebook page. Also sounds like a lot of those complacent people are learning their lesson.

Car on Foster:

http://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid= ... e=1&ref=nf

Reports of several other vehicles being flipped over as well.

[CrazyC83]

Wind just changed at Naha City so the eye must be just to the west now. Pressure is 946mb right now with winds around 40 kt (central pressure looks to be near or just below 942mb).

[Infdidoll]

A car flipped on Rt 58 in Naha: https://sphotos-b.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos- ... 4618_n.jpg

[euro6208]

the eye right over okinawa!

[Infdidoll]

Yep! People are talking about how the sun is even shining in some areas. I am SO jealous! I'm not jealous of the clean-up that's going to be going on. Everyone I've been talking to has been dealing with damage, flooding, etc.

[Infdidoll]

Check out some of the photos on this page: https://www.facebook.com/mccsokinawa.entertainment

Trees uprooted, trucks overturned...Wow! Lots of interesting photos coming out of Okinawa.

[euro6208]

WTPN31 PGTW 290300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 18W (JELAWAT) WARNING NR 035
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
290000Z --- NEAR 26.1N 127.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 050 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 26.1N 127.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 28.5N 130.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 23 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 31.7N 134.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 28 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 35.6N 139.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 33 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 40.2N 145.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
290300Z POSITION NEAR 26.7N 128.1E.
TYPHOON 18W (JELAWAT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 30 NM SOUTHWEST OF
KADENA AIR BASE, OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 16
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
290000Z IS 38 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 290900Z, 291500Z, 292100Z AND
300300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 19W (EWINIAR) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. //
NNNN



WDPN31 PGTW 290300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 18W (JELAWAT) WARNING NR 35//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 18W (JELAWAT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 30 NM SOUTHWEST
OF KADENA AIR BASE, OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 16
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES ELONGATION ALONG THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT AND SLIGHT
WARMING OF CONVECTIVE TOPS, ALTHOUGH THE FEEDER BANDS REMAIN TIGHTLY
WRAPPED INTO A SHRUNKEN 7-NM PINHOLE EYE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
BASED ON THE ABOVE ANIMATION AND FROM A RADAR REFLECTIVITY LOOP FROM
OKINAWA WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON
CONGRUENT DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND RJTD. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW HAS DIMINISHED BUT POLEWARD OUTFLOW
REMAINS SOLID. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY
OF AN EXTENSION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY 18W WILL CONTINUE TO BE STEERED BY THE STR NORTHEASTWARD ALL
THROUGH THE FORECAST. INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) ASSOCIATED
WITH THE STRONG WESTERLIES AND COOLING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL
CAUSE THE GRADUAL WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM. BY TAU 24, THE CYCLONE
WILL COMMENCE EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL IN
HONSHU, SOUTH OF KYOTO. THE SYSTEM WILL BECOME A COLD CORE LOW BY TAU
48 AFTER IT CROSSES THE KANTO PLAIN AND REEMERGES IN THE COLD SEA OF
JAPAN. THE AVAILABLE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH
THE SOLE EXCEPTION OF WBAR THAI IS UNREALISTICALLY DRIVING THE VORTEX
LEFT OF THE ENVELOPE INTO THE RIDGE BEHIND THE TROUGH. THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK FORECAST WHICH IS LAID TO THE RIGHT OF
CONSENSUS TO OFFSET WBAR. //
NNNN

[brunota2003]

People keep asking what Cat it is, and commenting that they didn't think it'd be this bad, it is way stronger than the other two, way more damage, etc...so my comment to those:

The unofficial source (Joint Typhoon Warning Center) has it at 100 knots (1-minute sustained winds) as of the 00Z warning. That is roughly 115 mph or low end "Category 3" on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Reason I say unofficial is that the official warning center for the West Pacific is the JMA, and they work off of 10 minute sustained winds.

Reason this typhoon seems so much worse? Because each typhoon is different. Different wind directions cause more or less havoc, depending on how open the areas are and from what direction. Another depends on what part of the storm you are in. Just because you go through the eye does not mean you experienced the worst winds. You could have gone through a weaker portion of the eyewall and the strongest winds are located elsewhere (or are out to sea in another section of the storm). There are many variables as to what winds you will end up facing! That is why it is important not to draw expectations from one storm to the next, and instead just prepare for the worst case scenerio.

Perfect example is I went through Hurricane Isabel in 2003 on the coast of NC. Max sustained winds in Isabel at landfall were 105 mph. I went through the western eyewall, and we only got sustained winds of 40 to 45 mph. However, many people thought they experienced much stronger winds...which lead them to a big surprise when we got stronger winds from "just a tropical storm". It was the eastern side of Isabel that housed the stronger 100 mph winds, and only in VERY small areas.

Best of luck to y'all on the back side!

Sad to say that the only educational time they find about typhoons is actually DURING one, when it is too late.