ATL: DEBBY - Post-Tropical

bamajammer4eva · #2121 Postby **bamajammer4eva** » Sat Jun 23, 2012 10:45 pm

51 hrs moving east

#2122 Postby **Lane** » Sat Jun 23, 2012 10:46 pm

GFS hs Debby moving east at 54hrs

#2123 Postby **Jevo** » Sat Jun 23, 2012 10:48 pm

0z GFS +60 (Finding the phantom weakness and moving East again)

0z GFS +66

0z GFS +72

#2124 Postby **Lane** » Sat Jun 23, 2012 10:49 pm

Making landfall around Tampa around 60hrs, I can't wait to see which model verifies.

#2125 Postby **Lane** » Sat Jun 23, 2012 10:52 pm

GFS stays east with its solution.

HouTXmetro · #2126 Postby **HouTXmetro** » Sat Jun 23, 2012 10:52 pm

Somebody at the NHC or whoever updated the GFS is going to get fired. I don't know who will turn out to be right (Iv'e learned in the past not to challenge the NHC), but heads will roll. "If" the GFS turns out to be wrong, how embarrassing! People will really question it's future runs.

bamajammer4eva · #2127 Postby **bamajammer4eva** » Sat Jun 23, 2012 10:53 pm

Could it be following the upper trough/Cold Front dropping dropping from the Carolinas on Monday? SPC Has See Text for E Coast Monday.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day3otlk.html

tbstorm · #2128 Postby **tbstorm** » Sat Jun 23, 2012 10:53 pm

Convection off Sarasota / Venice has been cycling up and down over the past few hours. I was going to go to bed but then I see 3 water spouts out there on the SRV. Nice hook echoes on some of them as well. The trend has been for all of them (even the big ones ones offshore Charlotte Harbor around 9p) to weaken as they come closer to the coast.... but I want to catch one in the act of moving on shore if its going to do so.
Time to get the Red Bull out of the fridge....

#2129 Postby **Lane** » Sat Jun 23, 2012 10:53 pm

What time does the EURO run if has not already?

vaffie · #2130 Postby **vaffie** » Sat Jun 23, 2012 10:54 pm

HouTXmetro wrote:Somebody at the NHC or whoever updated the GFS is going to get fired. I don't know who will turn out to be right (Iv'e learned in the past not to challenge the NHC), but heads will roll. "If" the GFS turns out to be wrong, how embarrassing! People will really question it's future runs.

The NHC is replacing the GFS in the next couple years, they just have to test the new one (FIM) enough first.

tbstorm · #2131 Postby **tbstorm** » Sat Jun 23, 2012 10:54 pm

Uploaded with ImageShack.us

#2132 Postby **cycloneye** » Sat Jun 23, 2012 10:54 pm

Lane wrote:What time does the EURO run if has not already?

You have to wait until 2 AM.

SunnyThoughts · #2133 Postby **SunnyThoughts** » Sat Jun 23, 2012 10:55 pm

This is the most interesting storm to follow in a long time imo. Living here in P'cola...I don't mind getting tropical storm conditions...but watching the models move this system sooo slowly and almost stall it due south of us, ( well, I guess only the Gfs is stalling it) I'm really starting to wonder about the rain aspect. Now if it were a strong cane sitting there...just 100 miles due south of me for 12 or 24 hours. Lets just say, it takes a LOT of trust in the NHC ( and they have earned it for sure) to realize when they say it is going to move one direction, and not towards you when its so close like that.

#2134 Postby **Jevo** » Sat Jun 23, 2012 10:57 pm

And here ya go in full color to help those that cant pinpopint the weaknesses and ridges in the other maps

0z GFS +72 (Over Central Florida)

#2135 Postby **Lane** » Sat Jun 23, 2012 10:57 pm

Great.... thanks cycloneye

#2136 Postby **loon** » Sat Jun 23, 2012 10:57 pm

cycloneye wrote:For those who have not seen specialist Stacey Stewart,here he is. He went to the point on that discussion.

Thanks Cycloneye .. been reading him for years, never knew what he looked like =) One of my fave discussions usually.

#2137 Postby **gatorcane** » Sat Jun 23, 2012 10:57 pm

Get ready Pinellas County...for the first time with this system looks like a feeder band is going to come through starting in St. Petersburg in about 30 minutes...the bands have been falling apart south of Tampa Bay this entire afternoon, but looks like this one will stay in tact.

SeminoleWind · #2138 Postby **SeminoleWind** » Sat Jun 23, 2012 10:59 pm

Geez i don't think i have ever seen the GFS and EURO so far apart for so long, usually the GFS falls in line with the EURO over time.
How many runs in a row does this make it the GFS has had this type of track for Debby?

#2139 Postby **Lane** » Sat Jun 23, 2012 11:01 pm

I know it can't be but almost looks like the GFS has shown the same runs three nights in a row. Just adjusting how long it stalls before moving east. Since the GFS seems to be the BIG under dog. I can't help but hope it verifies.
I do have a question for whoever can anwer this: What is the GFS seeing or playing out more than the other models to make it still say Debby will head East?

dexterlabio · #2140 Postby **dexterlabio** » Sat Jun 23, 2012 11:02 pm

wow, a hurricane? does anyone think this couldn't happen?

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