ATL: DEBBY - Post-Tropical

[South Texas Storms]

Really liked Stewart's 11PM disco and can't argue with his logic. Liked that he explained why the GFS has a northeastward bias and find it hard to argue that the ridging to the northeast will prevent it from going northeastward, even if the center reforms a little more northeastward.

I agree. That was a great discussion from the NHC. Very detailed.

[Clint_TX]

So is the GFS going to budge tonight?

I guess we will find out in roughly 35 minutes when the 00Z runs. Wow, what an epic fail it would be for the GFS if its East solution never materializes...

Tonight its starts to flip!

[Rgv20]

0zNAM was way to fast it has Debby in Brownsville door step by Monday Night!

[Rgv20]

Tonight its starts to flip!

I have a feeling it will.....I felt the same way last night tho lol

[KatDaddy]

Hopefully tomorrow will give us more insight with overnight development and new data for the model runs.

[Jevo]

Really liked Stewart's 11PM disco and can't argue with his logic. Liked that he explained why the GFS has a northeastward bias and find it hard to argue that the ridging to the northeast will prevent it from going northeastward, even if the center reforms a little more northeastward.

I agree. That was a great discussion from the NHC. Very detailed.

That is the toughest man named Stacey that you'll ever meet.... hahah but just like I said... It's the ole Avila then Stewart setup... Whereas Avila's disco was meh... Stewart went into explicit detail with his... Almost as if he reads these boards and answers our questions directly.

[Kingarabian]

How much longer till the GFS rols?

[Rgv20]

That is the toughest man named Stacey that you'll ever meet.... hahah but just like I said... It's the ole Avila then Stewart setup... Whereas Avila's disco was meh... Stewart went into explicit detail with his... Almost as if he reads these boards and answers our questions directly.

lol It was like he knew what questions us weather geeks had lol......He just put the whole E solution to bed.

[Jevo]

They just woke up the hamsters on the GFS Supercomputer... looks like it's running now.. Ill have the images as they come out in 12 hour intervals

[cycloneye]

How much longer till the GFS rols?

11:30 PM

[Kingarabian]

How much longer till the GFS rols?

11:30 PM

Ah okay so 5:30 pm here in Hawaii.

Basically 30 mins after every NHC update then.

[bamajammer4eva]

So far GFS has been right about Debby for over 2 weeks now. Wouldn't be surprised to see the EURO finally come around

[ozonepete]

Really liked Stewart's 11PM disco and can't argue with his logic. Liked that he explained why the GFS has a northeastward bias and find it hard to argue that the ridging to the northeast will prevent it from going northeastward, even if the center reforms a little more northeastward.

I agree. That was a great discussion from the NHC. Very detailed.

That is the toughest man named Stacey that you'll ever meet.... hahah but just like I said... It's the ole Avila then Stewart setup... Whereas Avila's disco was meh... Stewart went into explicit detail with his... Almost as if he reads these boards and answers our questions directly.

Absolutely, yeah. But remember it's STACY, or he'll come after you - lol.

[Tireman4]

In the immortal words of Rob Halford on That Metal Show...



"Well, so there ya go"


....Stewart has edumucated us all.

[cycloneye]

For those who have not seen specialist Stacey Stewart,here he is. He went to the point on that discussion.

[stormhunter7]

Stewart still a Capt. in AF?

[ozonepete]

For those who have not seen specialist Stacey Stewart,here he is. He went to the point on that discussion.

A great man and a true expert in his field. What I missed while concentrating on the northeastward reconsolidation of the center was that even if it did (and is to some degree) the ridge was already building too fast to its north and so would not allow it to go northeastward anyway. There is a lot of stuff that you have to keep your eye on, all at the same time, and that's what the NHC does so well.

[ozonepete]

Stewart still a Capt. in AF?

Yes.

[08lava]

Is that IKE in the radar shot behind him? All I know is Debby is the big discussion here in CTX,, Man we need the rain..

[cycloneye]

I have a historic question. If Debby becomes a hurricane does the 2012 North Atlantic season break the record for the earliest 2nd Atlantic hurricane?