ATL: DEBBY - Post-Tropical

[summersquall]

Skies just opened up here in Jensen Beach after a day of almost complete calm.

[Sanibel]

Shortwave IR shows pretty much right along NHC track:


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/flash-ir2.html

[wxman57]

Can anyone tell me or have a link for what the sea heights are? Leaving for a cruise tomorrow will be heading to Key West and then Cayman. Thanks

Departing from where? Should be rather rough across the eastern Gulf if you're leaving from Tampa. 10-15 ft seas, plenty of squalls.

[tolakram]

Shortwave IR shows pretty much right along NHC track:


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/flash-ir2.html

True, unless the low level relocation many of us suspect is happening IS actually happening. I think that's really the big question right now.

[gatorcane]

Certainly looks like this may move off to the NE or E as the GFS has been insisting looking at Sat loops tonight. The trough is starting to create the well-advertised weakness along the Eastern Seaboard. Still surprised the NHC went with the west solution for their initial forecast, especially when the GFDL and GFS have been showing the more eastward solution (two models the NHC seems to put weight on)

[Evil Jeremy]

Certainly looks like this may move off to the NE or E as the GFS has been insisting looking at Sat loops tonight. The trough is starting to create the well-advertised weakness along the Eastern Seaboard. Still surprised the NHC went with the west solution for their initial forecast, especially when the GFDL and GFS have been showing the more eastward solution (two models the NHC seems to put weight on)

The GFDL has flipped west, but this was really a lame duck 18z session. This is going to be the first real model run with new data with Debby as a storm. This should be the most revealing run yet.

[caneman]

Thanks all. Leaving out of Ft. Lauderdale. Think I saw 5 to 6 ft. seas. I reckon a big ship can handle that no problem?

[Jevo]

Well if Lixion wrote the initial advisory .. I suspect we'll see Stewart, Beven, or Landsea on the 11pm disco, so it may be interesting to see if there are any major changes at this point

I still laugh when I remember how Avila would write a discussion and Stewart would come in right behind him on the next one and do a complete 180.. This was back in 04/05 though

[TexasF6]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
831 PM CDT SAT JUN 23 2012

.DISCUSSION...
T.S. DEBBY REMAINS STATIONARY OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO THIS
EVENING. DEBBY IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD TOWARDS
TEXAS ON MONDAY. A SINKING AIRMASS WILL OCCUR ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS IN ADVANCE OF DEBBY. THIS WILL RESULT IN NEAR RECORD TO
RECORD HIGHS SUNDAY THRU WEDNESDAY RESULTING IN PROLONGED EXCESSIVE
POWER CONSUMPTION. IF THE 12Z ECMWF WERE TO VERIFY...A SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL EVENT WOULD OCCUR ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS ON THURSDAY.
THE 18Z GFS IS STILL THE OUTLIER MOVING THE SYSTEM EASTWARD. THERE
ARE STILL MANY MODEL RUNS TO GO.

[ozonepete]

All of the satellite loops look to me like the system as a whole is getting pulled northeastward. The MLC, as AFM said, is clearly getting pulled northeastward now and the main LLC seems to be following it. I just don't see the Euro solution anymore. The NHC discussion for 11PM should be really interesting. This is fascinating stuff. A real learning experience since it is a rare case where two really good models are in such disagreement.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[robbielyn]

Thanks all. Leaving out of Ft. Lauderdale. Think I saw 5 to 6 ft. seas. I reckon a big ship can handle that no problem?

Yeah but bring the meclizine or dramamine with us just in case. Have fun. Bon voyage

[bamajammer4eva]

Channel 4/WTVY in Dothan which also covers Panama City is thinking there is up to 30 % chance of Tropical storm conditions in this area.

[TexasF6]

Looks stationary to me on satloop.

[Tireman4]

Thanks all. Leaving out of Ft. Lauderdale. Think I saw 5 to 6 ft. seas. I reckon a big ship can handle that no problem?

Have fun. Hope you have some Dramamine

[psyclone]

All of the satellite loops look to me like the system as a whole is getting pulled northeastward. The MLC, as AFM said, is clearly getting pulled northeastward now and the main LLC seems to be following it. I just don't see the Euro solution anymore. The NHC discussion for 11PM should be really interesting. This is fascinating stuff. A real learning experience since it is a rare case where two really good models are in such disagreement.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

perhaps the storm just briefly lurches northeast only to reverse and ultimately follow the westward forecast?

[JonathanBelles]

My thoughts on the current relocation of the low level center of TS Debby. We'll see what the NHC does in a bit, but I am expecting a bump to the right of the 5pm track, and possibly a bump to hurricane at 5 days. Debby is still in the organization phase. Also, if you live in Sarasota or Manatee county...beware. There is an intense area of rain heading N to NNW, and I was tracking waterspouts off the coast.

[dexterlabio]

whoa, this thing is huge. shear sure impedes any development to a hurricane but the mere size of this storm also adds to the burden as the energy needed to strengthen the core is being stolen away from the center. If the GOM right now is as conducive for RI as the waters in Western Pacific, this could grow into an enormous howler regardless of its size.


talking about the track, I'm not familiar with whatever setup there is in GOM/ATL, but basically if it moves to a northeast in a decreasing pace, that could be an indication of the storm changing course and may start to take the opposite turn. if GFS solution pans out though.....hats off


Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[robbielyn]

[quote="ozonepete"]All of the satellite loops look to me like the system as a whole is getting pulled northeastward. The MLC, as AFM said, is clearly getting pulled northeastward now and the main LLC seems to be following it. I just don't see the Euro solution anymore. The NHC discussion for 11PM should be really interesting. This is fascinating stuff. A real learning experience since it is a rare case where two really good models are in such disagreement.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.[/quote

That naked llc is still in the same place south of ms/al. Its there going strong. You can easily see it on it since there is no convection around it. That ull is pushing convection to the east so consolidation isn't taking place. I truly think only that trough can make it go east so here's hoping that happens. Im voting for the gfs underdog but im not winning yet.

[stormhunter7]

The Uppper Level Low is moving southward... so shear will begin to relax after midnight and through tmrw, for a short period.

[SunnyThoughts]

Jonathan, a BIG thank you for all you contribute in helping everyone understand the tropics. You, along with wxman57 and Airforcemet as well as the other professionals make this website such a wonderful place to gather information and we all very much appreciate it!