ATL: ERNESTO - Post-Tropical

[ROCK]

18Z NOGAPS...same as before and similar to the CMC...

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical

[cycloneye]

00z Models

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WHXX01 KWBC 010041
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0041 UTC WED AUG 1 2012
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL992012) 20120801 0000 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        120801  0000   120801  1200   120802  0000   120802  1200
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS     9.7N  43.0W   10.5N  46.4W   11.0N  49.7W   11.2N  53.2W
BAMD     9.7N  43.0W   10.2N  45.1W   10.6N  47.0W   10.8N  48.8W
BAMM     9.7N  43.0W   10.3N  45.4W   10.8N  47.6W   11.2N  49.7W
LBAR     9.7N  43.0W   10.2N  45.9W   10.8N  48.9W   11.2N  52.1W
SHIP        25KTS          32KTS          39KTS          45KTS
DSHP        25KTS          32KTS          39KTS          45KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        120803  0000   120804  0000   120805  0000   120806  0000
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    11.1N  56.5W   10.7N  63.0W   11.5N  68.1W   13.6N  72.8W
BAMD    11.0N  50.6W   12.1N  54.6W   13.8N  58.7W   15.4N  62.0W
BAMM    11.7N  51.9W   13.3N  57.0W   15.5N  62.7W   17.4N  68.8W
LBAR    11.5N  55.2W   11.8N  61.4W   12.4N  66.5W     .0N    .0W
SHIP        50KTS          56KTS          55KTS          53KTS
DSHP        50KTS          56KTS          55KTS          53KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =   9.7N LONCUR =  43.0W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR =  17KT
LATM12 =   9.3N LONM12 =  39.6W DIRM12 = 277DEG SPDM12 =  16KT
LATM24 =   8.9N LONM24 =  36.6W
WNDCUR =   25KT RMAXWD =   50NM WNDM12 =   20KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD =  150NM SDEPTH =   M
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM
 


[ROCK]

Luis can you post the graphic? I forgot how after all these years....

nevermind..... ....that CMC is updated for the 00Z run and shows a major shift into the carib.....I didnt think the 0Z CMC would come out until late tonight....

[cycloneye]

Luis can you post the graphic? I forgot how after all these years....

nevermind..... ....that CMC is updated for the 00Z run and shows a major shift into the carib.....I didnt think the 0Z CMC would come out until late tonight....

Look up.

[Gustywind]

Hi Luis, Gusty, Aric, MJ. and all.

It's that time of the year again.

Keep up the good work

Glad to see you at this... time of the year AGAIN . We try for that but we appreciate your wink

[NDG]

SHIPS is starting to catch on to the forecasted shear by the GFS and ECMWF in the central & eastern Caribbean.

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*   ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST       *
                    * GOES AVAILABLE,       OHC AVAILABLE       *
                    *      INVEST  AL992012  08/01/12  00 UTC   *

TIME (HR)          0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
V (KT) NO LAND    25    28    32    35    39    45    50    55    56    56    55    54    53
V (KT) LAND       25    28    32    35    39    45    50    55    56    56    55    54    53
V (KT) LGE mod    25    28    30    32    35    39    44    49    53    55    56    55    53
Storm Type      TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP

SHEAR (KT)         4    10    13     6    10     9    10    15    13    21    24    32    25
SHEAR ADJ (KT)     9     6     2     6    10     4     6     0     2     3     1     0     0
SHEAR DIR        337   333   326   331   321   328   286   274   257   270   251   273   263
SST (C)         28.0  28.0  28.1  28.1  28.1  28.1  28.0  28.1  28.1  28.1  28.2  28.5  28.5


[SFLcane]

Looks like those modes are shifting north again. Still think its got maybe 2-3 days to do something before it runs into some hostile winds in the eastern carib.

[leanne_uk]

I won't know much till my other half skypes his mum tomorrow. He knows I am keeping .sn extra close eye on what is happening and developments that will effect the islands. I just have to keep everything crossed that no matter what the outcome everyone is safe. Once I hear news from Grenada and what the authorities are saying I will post an update

Fear and worry are starting to set in :/

Are the authorities of Grenada talked about this system and about preparations?

[ROCK]

Looks like those modes are shifting north again. Still think its got maybe 2-3 days to do something before it runs into some hostile winds in the eastern carib.

the CMC just shifted about 200 miles south and now is in the carib. The GFS and EURO still show carib bound....even the GFS ensembles are all south now...not sure what model shifted north...

agree on the shear....I think the HWRF picked up on this as well...

[Gustywind]

Once again a long paragraph about 99L mentionned as a special feature.

000
AXNT20 KNHC 312336
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT TUE JUL 31 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 16N40W TO A 1010 MB SURFACE LOW AT
10N41W. THE WAVE/LOW IS MOVING W AT ABOUT 10-15 KT. THE WAVE IS
FAIRLY LOW AMPLITUDE ALIGNING WITH AN EQUALLY LOW AMPLITUDE
SURGE IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER. HOWEVER...AN ANALYSIS OF THE
SAHARAN AIR LAYER CONTINUES TO SHOW A CLEARING IN THE WIDESPREAD
DUST NEAR THE WAVE AXIS INDICATING ITS PRESENCE. CONVECTION HAS
INCREASED AROUND THE LOW CENTER FROM 24 HOURS AGO. CURRENTLY
SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS MAINLY W OF THE SYSTEM
FROM 7N-11N BETWEEN 41W-46W. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
CONDUCIVE FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM.

[Gustywind]

31/2345 UTC 9.2N 43.0W T1.0/1.0 99L
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/tdpositions.html

[Stormlover2012]

do yall have the euro ensembles?

[hurricanes1234]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.


It is being observed that 99L is moving WNW and is about to cross the 10°N mark, enough distance from the equator for the circulation to become more vigorous as time passes. Given the current position in the open central Atlantic, if this does develop by tomorrow evening, it should have enough time and water to steadily intensify, possibly into a hurricane, before it falls apart upon reaching higher wind shear in the Caribbean. Or, if the wind shear relaxes, the storm may pass over an environment favorable enough for it to become a major hurricane, but this seems a lot less likely, given the current trends.

Percentages (based on what I think):

1. 50% chance that this storm continues moving WNW, eventually affecting a portion of the northern/eastern Caribbean to some extent, and then re-curving out to sea.
2. 5% chance that it moves due west, eventually making landfall over the southern Caribbean and affecting a very small part of South America and the ABC islands.
3. 25% chance that the storm moves through the Caribbean and the Gulf of Mexico, making landfall somewhere along the Gulf coast.
4. 10% chance that the storm landfalls along the East Coast, possibly affecting the Carolinas and northward.
5. 10% chance that it avoids all landmasses.

cycloneye adds Storm2k Disclaimer

[ozonepete]

One hitch with your assessment is that NHC says its moving west.

[SFLcane]

Looks like those modes are shifting north again. Still think its got maybe 2-3 days to do something before it runs into some hostile winds in the eastern carib.

the CMC just shifted about 200 miles south and now is in the carib. The GFS and EURO still show carib bound....even the GFS ensembles are all south now...not sure what model shifted north...

agree on the shear....I think the HWRF picked up on this as well...

In terms of the GFS ensembles yes they did shift northward a bit. Again regardless north or south this things future is not bright at all. Latest SHIPS guidance is ugly not even surpass 60kts now.

[Gustywind]

Atlantic system getting better organized

Stu Ostro, Senior Meteorologist, The Weather Channel
http://www.weather.com/newscenter/hurri ... index.html

Jul 31, 2012 6:02 pm ET

ATLANTIC

- The disturbance in the central tropical Atlantic yesterday was slow to consolidate, but today convection has been spinning more tightly around a center, thus increasingly exhibiting characteristics of a tropical cyclone. Before declaring a system to be one, typically the National Hurricane Center waits to ensure that such a trend toward organization is durable rather than transient. In any event, unlike was the case with the wave that is currently affecting Puerto Rico, the potential exists for further development of this one as it crosses the Atlantic. The timeline is for it to reach the Lesser Antilles by Friday or Friday night.

[Rgv20]

Although the GFS, UKMET, and ECMWF agree on a westward path thru the Caribbean, the GFS is much slower with 99L than the UKMET and ECMWF. By Sunday Morning the UKMET and ECMWF has 99L around 75W while the GFS has it lagging around 70W.

12zUKMET forecast valid for Sunday Morning

[JonathanBelles]

My thought's tonight on 99L. Better surface circulation, slightly worse upper level circulation and flow. Caribbean threat.

http://jonathanbelles.wordpress.com/201 ... -slightly/

[ozonepete]

I won't know much till my other half skypes his mum tomorrow. He knows I am keeping .sn extra close eye on what is happening and developments that will effect the islands. I just have to keep everything crossed that no matter what the outcome everyone is safe. Once I hear news from Grenada and what the authorities are saying I will post an update

Fear and worry are starting to set in :/

Are the authorities of Grenada talked about this system and about preparations?

Hi Leanne,
Good to see you always come back here for each new season. As you've learned, these things can change quite a bit from what we expect initially so it's way too early to worry, ok? And you know we will all keep a close eye on it.

[hurricanes1234]

Just yesterday, the same 99L was an open, ragged-looking, weak area of disturbed weather with shallow convection encircling a barely noticeable center. Now, look at it. It is growing and is now a compact, organized low with the convection neatly placed in the center. By 2 am tomorrow, this might be a 60-70% chance of TC formation within 48 hours.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

edit by tolakram, added disclaimer

The disclaimer is required when making predictions.