![Image](http://img217.imageshack.us/img217/6040/wp1612.gif)
Bolaven now our 11th typhoon!!! looks like another monster in the making...
WTPN32 PGTW 211500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 16W (BOLAVEN) WARNING NR 007
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 16W
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
211200Z --- NEAR 18.7N 139.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.7N 139.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 19.3N 138.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 19.8N 136.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 20.4N 135.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 21.0N 133.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 22.2N 130.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 23.4N 127.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 24.9N 125.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
211500Z POSITION NEAR 18.8N 139.4E.
TYPHOON 16W (BOLAVEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 385 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF IWO TO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 211200Z IS 21 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
212100Z, 220300Z, 220900Z AND 221500Z. REFER TO TYPHOON
15W (TEMBIN) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
NNNN
WDPN32 PGTW 211500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 16W (BOLAVEN) WARNING NR 07//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 16W (BOLAVEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 385 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF IWO TO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 05
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH A LARGE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST
(CDO). A 211230Z METOP-A IMAGE INDICATES A WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A
DEFINED CENTER LOCATED ON THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE CDO. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON A 211004Z SSMIS IMAGE AND THE METOP-A
IMAGE WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 65
KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 65 KNOTS FROM ALL AGENCIES. UPPER-
LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS NEAR-RADIAL OUTFLOW; HOWEVER, ANIMATED WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE POSITIONED
NORTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM NEAR 20N 135E, WHICH IS PRODUCING 15-20 KNOT
NORTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND HINDERING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
OVER THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT. TY 16W IS TRACKING SLOWLY WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR).
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY 16W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE DEEP STR THROUGH TAU 72. WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF GFDN, DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT
WITH A 110 NM SPREAD IN GUIDANCE AT TAU 72. THE 21/00Z 500MB UPPER-
AIR DATA SHOWS HEIGHT RISES (1-3 DM) ACROSS AND SOUTH OF JAPAN
REFLECTING A STRENGTHENING STR, THEREFORE, TY 16W IS EXPECTED TO
ACCELERATE OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS. TY 16W IS EXPECTED TO
INTENSIFY THROUGH THE PERIOD UNDER GENERALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK FORECAST THROUGH
TAU 72.
C. AFTER TAU 72, TY 16W IS FORECAST TO TRACK SLIGHTLY MORE
POLEWARD AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND A MIDLATITUDE TROUGH DEEPENS OVER EASTERN
CHINA. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE BULK OF
THE GUIDANCE CONTINUING TO SUPPORT A TRACK SOUTH OF OKINAWA. THE
JTWC FORECAST FAVORS THE MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF AND JGSM MODELS,
WHICH ARE ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE AIDS ENVELOPE AND INDICATE A
TRACK SOUTH OF OKINAWA. THE BULK OF THE ENSEMBLE DATA ALSO SUPPORTS
A TRACK SOUTH OF OKINAWA. THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED
FORECAST TRACK DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE
MIDLATITUDE TROUGH AND POTENTIAL FOR A MORE POLEWARD TURN AFTER TAU
120.//
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