WPAC: SAOLA - Post-Tropical

[RobWESTPACWX]

JMA has the storm a TD on there 48hr outlook now.

http://www.jma.go.jp/en/g3/wc48h.html

[dexterlabio]

i think the STR building up to the north is what the models see to keep the track of this potential storm to the west after a poleward movement. Euro, NOGAPS and GFS are almost showing the same solution now though Euro really likes to keep weaker storms in their runs, also bringing it quite close to northernmost PI.

[euro6208]

euro has this developing along with another system to its northeast but then as 93W becomes the dominant system, it absorbs the other system. *Saola* is expected to strengthen east of luzon and track north passing taiwan to the east then makes landfall south of shanghai as a moderate tropical storm...we'll see...

[Typhoon Hunter]

Still a lot of uncertainty in the models regarding track, ECM throwing out a much stronger storm headed for Hong Kong in latest run whilst other models have a strong typhoon headed for Ryukus and/or Taiwan. I still think it'll take a couple more days to develop properly.

JMA now listing this as a TD - TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1004 HPA AT 11N 131E NW SLOWLY.

[dexterlabio]

^are you in HK right now? if this heads to Hong Kong then you may have something interesting to track down right in your doorstep, I heard you missed Vicente when it brushed Hong Kong last week.


By the way, from NRL:

93WINVEST.20kts-1007mb-11.0N-131.1E

...at 20kts, if im not mistaken that means a TCFA soon from JTWC?

[dexterlabio]

Just saw the latest run from Euro, yeah a stronger system going towards Hong Kong, but I noticed another low pressure system off Taiwan, and maybe that's the same system they've been showing in the previous runs although now they have it weaker. GFS, on the other hand, starts to show that other system also intensifying along with this one then making that classic Fujiwara.

I want to think that run was an off from GFS but let's see if they will be consistent with it. NOGAPS still shows a powerful storm over Taiwan.

[Meow]

With a warning now.



TD
Issued at 04:20 UTC, 27 July 2012

<Analyses at 27/03 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity -
TD
Center position N11°30'(11.5°)
E129°40'(129.7°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW 10km/h(6kt)
Central pressure 1002hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 15m/s(30kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 23m/s(45kt)

<Forecast for 28/03 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N13°20'(13.3°)
E128°20'(128.3°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 10km/h(6kt)
Central pressure 998hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 18m/s(35kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25m/s(50kt)
Radius of probability circle 220km(120NM)

[dexterlabio]

worst idea came true. i think fujiwara effect is possible between the two developing TD's as that system north of Guam tracks towards the southern Japanese islands. could be a difficult or tricky forecasting this weekend, whether direct cyclone interaction would exist between the 2...or not. and if there would be a DCI, how large will it affect the track and maybe the intensity of these two?

[Typhoon Hunter]

Hey Dexter I'll be in Hong Kong for sure, and around for every other typhoon that makes landfall! I wasn't happy to miss Vicente.

Models take 95W north towards Japan so I'm pretty sure it's too far away to influence 93W, however maybe another blob is due to form and influence 93W. A very interesting but messy situation. Models still ramping 93W's intensity big time!

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Meow]

WTPN21 PGTW 271400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
180 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 11.8N 128.4E TO 16.4N 124.1E
WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN
THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
271300Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 12.7N
127.6E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.4N 129.2E, IS
NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.7N 127.6E, APPROXIMATELY 395 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF
MANILA, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS A VERY BROAD SYSTEM WITH FRAGMENTED FEEDER BANDS THAT HAS
FURTHER CONSOLIDATED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY A
271144Z SSMI-S MICROWAVE IMAGE THAT CLEARLY OUTLINES THE CONVECTIVE
BANDING AND THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR HAS WEAKENED AS THE STORM MOTION
BECAME IN-PHASE WITH THE UPPER LEVEL WINDS. THE CYCLONE IS BEING
STEERED WESTWARD BY A LOW- TO MID-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE
NORTH. IN ADDITION TO THE IMPROVED UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS, THE SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE AREA ARE PERENNIALLY FAVORABLE FOR
CYCLOGENESIS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO
23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB.
DUE TO THE IMPROVED BANDING AND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT, THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
281400Z. //
NNNN

[Meow]

TD
Issued at 13:25 UTC, 27 July 2012

<Analyses at 27/12 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity -
TD
Center position N12°55'(12.9°)
E127°55'(127.9°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW 15km/h(7kt)
Central pressure 1002hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 15m/s(30kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 23m/s(45kt)

<Forecast for 28/12 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N15°10'(15.2°)
E126°55'(126.9°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW 10km/h(6kt)
Central pressure 996hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 18m/s(35kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25m/s(50kt)
Radius of probability circle 220km(120NM)

[euro6208]

TXPQ25 KNES 271505
TCSWNP

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (93W)

B. 27/1432Z

C. 12.7N

D. 128.0E

E. THREE/MTSAT

F. T1.5/1.5/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/SWIR/SSMIS

H. REMARKS... GREATER THAN 2/10 BANDING FOR DT=1.5. MET=1.0 WITH PT=1.5.
FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

27/0909Z 12.7N 128.5E SSMIS


...SALEMI

[euro6208]

hmmm euro has *Saola* tracking towards luzon and rapidly strengthening (midget typhoon?) between luzon and taiwan then tracking towards the taiwan strait...



organizing steadily...

[Meow]

hmmm euro has *Saola* tracking towards luzon and rapidly strengthening (midget typhoon?) between luzon and taiwan then tracking towards the taiwan strait...

We cannot be sure if this will be Saola, as 95W grows faster.

[cycloneye]

Is now Tropical Storm Saola.

TS 1209 (SAOLA)
Issued at 01:10 UTC, 28 July 2012
<Analyses at 28/00 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N14°30'(14.5°)
E126°50'(126.8°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 15km/h(8kt)
Central pressure 1000hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 18m/s(35kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25m/s(50kt)
Area of 30kt winds or more ALL370km(200NM)

<Forecast for 29/00 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N17°20'(17.3°)
E125°05'(125.1°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 20km/h(10kt)
Central pressure 992hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 23m/s(45kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(65kt)
Radius of probability circle 140km(75NM)

<Forecast for 30/00 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N18°35'(18.6°)
E124°00'(124.0°)
Direction and speed of movement NW Slowly
Central pressure 985hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 25m/s(50kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(70kt)
Radius of probability circle 200km(110NM)

<Forecast for 31/00 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N19°35'(19.6°)
E123°10'(123.2°)
Direction and speed of movement NW Slowly
Central pressure 975hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(60kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 45m/s(85kt)
Radius of probability circle 300km(160NM)
Storm warning area ALL390km(210NM)

[euro6208]

expected to strengthen as it heads toward taiwan...

WTPN31 PGTW 280300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/271351Z JUL 12//
AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10W (TEN) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
280000Z --- NEAR 14.4N 127.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 325 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 14.4N 127.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 15.6N 126.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 16.7N 125.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 17.4N 125.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 18.3N 124.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z --- 19.8N 124.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 21.5N 123.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 23.5N 121.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
280300Z POSITION NEAR 14.7N 126.9E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 10W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 350 NM EAST OF
MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS DURING
THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 280000Z IS 8
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 280900Z, 281500Z, 282100Z AND 290300Z.
THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN
PEARL HARBOR HI 271351Z JUL 12 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
(WTPN22 PGTW 271400).//
NNNN




TXPQ25 KNES 280313
TCSWNP
CCA

A. 10W (SAOLA)

B. 28/0232Z

C. 14.7N

D. 126.6E

E. FIVE/MTSAT

F. T1.5/1.5/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...CORRECTED TO ADD NAME OF STORM. DT=1.5 BASED ON .3 BANDING
ON LOG10 SPIRAL. PT=1.5. MET=1.5. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...SCHWARTZ


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
1.5 /1005.0mb/ 25.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
1.5 1.5 1.5

[euro6208]

WDPN31 PGTW 280300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10W (TEN) WARNING
NR 01//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 10W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 350 NM EAST
OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MUTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI)
DEPICTS A BROAD AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION WITH SPIRAL BANDING WRAPPING
INTO A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A MOSAIC OF MICROWAVE
IMAGERY (MI) OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS DEPICTS A STEADY CONSOLIDATION
OF THE SYSTEM; HOWEVER THE LLCC REMAINS FAIRLY BROAD. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS BASED ON MSI AND THE 272146Z SSMIS MI WITH FAIR
CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 25 KNOTS BASED ON
DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES AND RJTD RANGING FROM 25 TO 30
KNOTS. A SURFACE OBSERVATION FROM GUIUAN ISLAND, PHILIPPINES SHOWS
WINDS FROM THE WEST-SOUTHWEST AT 20 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
REVEALS TD 10W IS APPROXIMATLY FIVE DEGREES WEST OF A RIDGE AXIS,
WITH FAVORABLE DIFFLUENCE ON THE EQUATORWARD SIDE PROVIDING AMPLE
OUTFLOW. CURRENTLY, THE SYSTEM IS UNDER LIGHT (10 KNOT) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS), WITH HIGHER VALUES TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THIS IS THE INITIAL PROGNOSTIC REASONING AND SETS THE
FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.
B. TD 10W IS CURRENTLY IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT, UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE EAST, AROUND 155E LONGITUDE.
THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO TRACK SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH
TAU 72 AT WHICH TIME THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH
SHOULD ASSUME STEERING, DEFLECTING THE SYSTEM WESTWARD. UPPER AIR
OBSERVATIONS FROM KADENA AND TAIWAN SHOW SOLID EASTERLY FLOW
THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN AT THOSE LATITUDES. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENLY
VERY BROAD AND THE WIND FIELD IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BROAD THROUGHOUT
THE PERIOD. THE INTENSITY IS FORECAST TO STEADILY INCREASE AS THE
SYSTEM CONSOLIDATES, REACHING 65 KNOTS BY TAU 72. TROUGHING POLEWARD
OF 10W MAY PROVIDE SOME ADDITIONAL SHEAR AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS
NORTHWARD; HOWEVER A TROPICAL UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT)
CELL FORMING OVER KADENA MAY PROVIDE ADDITIONAL OUTFLOW TO
COMPENSATE. THROUGH TAU 72, THE DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE MAJOR OUTLIER BEING THE ECMWF MODEL, WHICH
DEPICTS A STRONGER STR DEFLECTING THE SYSTEM MORE WESTWARD THROUGH
THE LUZON STRAIT. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE STRAIGHT-RUNNING
SCENARIO DURING THIS PERIOD.
C. BEYOND TAU 72, THE WELL ESTABLISHED EASTERLIES WILL DEFLECT
TD 10W WESTWARD. GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, REACHING A PEAK OF 80 KNOTS
AT TAU 120. BEYOND TAU 72, THE SPREAD AMONG THE DYNAMICAL MODELS
INCREASES AS ECMWF TAKES THE SYSTEM ALMOST DUE WESTWARD, WHILE THE
MAJORITY OF THE GUIDANCE TRACKS MORE NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY. THE
FORECAST TRACK IS SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN CONSENSUS TO TAKE INTO
ACCOUNT THE WEAK STEERING INFLUENCE THROUGH TAU 72, BUT IS OTHERWISE
IN LINE WITH THE CONSENSUS TRACK. THERE IS POOR CONFIDENCE IN THIS
PORTION OF THE TRACK DUE TO THE INCREASING SPREAD IN THE DYNAMICAL
MODELS.//
NNNN

[dexterlabio]

TS 1209 (SAOLA)
Issued at 03:45 UTC, 28 July 2012

<Analyses at 28/03 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N14°30'(14.5°)
E126°05'(126.1°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 15km/h(8kt)
Central pressure 1000hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 18m/s(35kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25m/s(50kt)
Area of 30kt winds or more ALL370km(200NM)

<Forecast for 29/03 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N17°10'(17.2°)
E124°10'(124.2°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 20km/h(10kt)
Central pressure 992hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 23m/s(45kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(65kt)
Radius of probability circle 140km(75NM)

<Forecast for 30/00 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N18°35'(18.6°)
E124°00'(124.0°)
Direction and speed of movement NW Slowly
Central pressure 985hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 25m/s(50kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(70kt)
Radius of probability circle 200km(110NM)

<Forecast for 31/00 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N19°35'(19.6°)
E123°10'(123.2°)
Direction and speed of movement NW Slowly
Central pressure 975hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(60kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 45m/s(85kt)
Radius of probability circle 300km(160NM)
Storm warning area ALL390km(210NM)

[dexterlabio]

PAGASA



JTWC



JMA

[Meow]

40 knots (10-min)



TS 1209 (SAOLA)
Issued at 06:50 UTC, 28 July 2012

<Analyses at 28/06 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N15°00'(15.0°)
E125°40'(125.7°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 15km/h(8kt)
Central pressure 998hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 20m/s(40kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 30m/s(60kt)
Area of 30kt winds or more ALL370km(200NM)

<Forecast for 29/06 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N17°25'(17.4°)
E123°50'(123.8°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 15km/h(8kt)
Central pressure 990hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 23m/s(45kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(65kt)
Radius of probability circle 130km(70NM)

<Forecast for 30/06 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N19°00'(19.0°)
E122°50'(122.8°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW Slowly
Central pressure 980hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(55kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 40m/s(80kt)
Radius of probability circle 200km(110NM)
Storm warning area ALL280km(150NM)

<Forecast for 31/06 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N19°40'(19.7°)
E122°20'(122.3°)
Direction and speed of movement Almost stationary
Central pressure 965hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(70kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(100kt)
Radius of probability circle 300km(160NM)
Storm warning area ALL410km(220NM)