EPAC: FABIO - Post-Tropical

[cycloneye]

Up to 90%

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT WED JUL 11 2012

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
EMILIA...LOCATED ABOUT 750 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF
BAJA CALIFORNIA.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
LOCATED ABOUT 400 MILES SOUTH OF MANZANILLO MEXICO HAVE INCREASED
AND BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED THIS AFTERNOON. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT...AND A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS LIKELY TO FORM TONIGHT OR THURSDAY. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...90 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
ABOUT 10 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

[Cyclenall]

Up to 100%

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 120532
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT WED JUL 11 2012

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
EMILIA...LOCATED ABOUT 810 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF
BAJA CALIFORNIA.

A WELL-DEFINED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 450 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF
ORGANIZATION. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED NEAR THE CENTER
OF CIRCULATION OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...AND IF THIS
DEVELOPMENT TREND CONTINUES...THEN A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM
WITHIN THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...
NEAR 100 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 56% is 4.8 times the sample mean(11.7%)
Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 31% is 4.0 times the sample mean( 7.9%)
Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 22% is 4.1 times the sample mean( 5.4%)
Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 14% is 3.5 times the sample mean( 3.9%)

SHIPS RI Index is going up quickly.

Massive bursts of deep convection continue to fire over the center and has been doing so for quite some time. It looks excellent and I expect to wake up to find a TD or TS.

[Kingarabian]

We have Six-E

Code: Select all

EP, 06, 2012071206,   , BEST,   0, 135N, 1061W,  30, 1003, TD,  34, NEQ,    0,    0,    0,    0, 1007,  180,  30,   0,   0,   E,   0,    ,   0,   0,        SIX, M,

[Kingarabian]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062012
200 AM PDT THU JUL 12 2012

THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 400 NMI SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF
MANZANILLO MEXICO HAS ACQUIRED ENOUGH ORGANIZED CONVECTION THIS
MORNING TO BE CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. A SERIES OF
MICROWAVE PASSES OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...ESPECIALLY A 0430
UTC AMSU OVERPASS...INDICATED THE INNER CORE CIRCULATION HAS BECOME
BETTER DEFINED. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KT IS BASED ON A BLEND
OF DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T2.0/30 KT FROM TAFB AND
T2.5/35 KT FROM SAB.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS AN UNCERTAIN 290/06 KT. THE CYCLONE
HAS BEEN WOBBLING ABOUT A MEAN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION OVER THE
PAST 12 HOURS...WHICH IS LIKELY DUE TO THE ASYMMETRY IN THE CENTRAL
DEEP CONVECTION CAUSED BY NORTHEASTERLY MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE CYCLONE MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE
NEXT 3 DAYS AS IT MOVES AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A
DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL HIGH SITUATED OVER MEXICO. AFTER THAT...
HOWEVER...A WEAKNESS IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN THE RIDGE AXIS OVER
BAJA CALIFORNIA AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OFF THE U.S. WEST COAST DIGS
SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA BY DAYS 4 AND 5. THIS
SHOULD RESULT IN THE CYCLONE TURNING MORE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND
BE ACCOMPANIED BY A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THE OFFICIAL TRACK
IS CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS.

VERTICAL SHEAR IS MARGINAL FOR STEADY DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR FOR THE
NEXT 72 HOURS. AFTER THAT...THE CYCLONE WILL BE MOVING OVER MUCH
COOLER WATERS...WHICH SHOULD INDUCE STEADY WEAKENING DESPITE THE
CYCLONE MOVING INTO A LOW VERTICAL SHEAR ENVIRONMENT BY 96 HOURS.
THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE SHIPS INTENSITY
MODEL.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/0900Z 13.6N 106.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 12/1800Z 13.9N 107.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 13/0600Z 14.5N 108.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 13/1800Z 15.3N 110.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 14/0600Z 16.0N 111.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 15/0600Z 16.7N 114.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 16/0600Z 18.0N 116.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 17/0600Z 20.7N 118.5W 30 KT 35 MPH

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[cycloneye]

12z Best Track up to 35kts

We will have TS Fabio at the 8 AM PDT advisory.

EP, 06, 2012071212, , BEST, 0, 136N, 1069W, 35, 1002, TS

ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/inves ... 012.invest

[Yellow Evan]

Yay! Fabio is here!

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM FABIO ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062012
800 AM PDT THU JUL 12 2012

...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS TO TROPICAL STORM FABIO...EXPECTED TO
REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE THE MEXICAN COAST...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.6N 107.3W
ABOUT 425 MI...680 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 665 MI...1070 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES



TROPICAL STORM FABIO DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062012
800 AM PDT THU JUL 12 2012

THE STRUCTURE OF THE DEPRESSION HAS CONTINUED TO IMPROVE...AND AN
1121 UTC SSMI PASS REVEALED THAT THE CYCLONE IS DEVELOPING A NEARLY
CLOSED LOW-LEVEL CLOUD RING UNDERNEATH THE LARGE CONVECTIVE CANOPY.
DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE A CONSENSUS 35 KT...AND THE
DEPRESSION IS UPGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM ON THAT BASIS.

A LARGE AND PERSISTENT MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL HIGH CENTERED OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES IS STEERING FABIO ON A WESTWARD
COURSE...AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 280/8 KT. THE
RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO SPLIT IN HALF DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD AS A
COUPLE OF CUT-OFF LOWS DEVELOP ALONG THE U.S. PACIFIC COAST.
UNLIKE ITS PREDECESSORS DANIEL AND EMILIA...FABIO SHOULD GRADUALLY
TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST INTO THE WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE BY
DAY 5...INSTEAD OF MAINTAINING A WESTWARD TRACK. THE GUIDANCE IS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO...AND THE NEW NHC FORECAST EXHIBITS
LITTLE CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE.

THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT NEVER APPEARS TO BECOME IDEAL FOR AN
INTENSE STORM...BUT THE VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD BE JUST LOW ENOUGH TO
ALLOW STEADY INTENSIFICATION DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS WHILE
THERMODYNAMIC CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE. BASED ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...FABIO SHOULD REACH WATERS COLDER THAN 26C IN ABOUT 3
DAYS...AND BE OVER 22-23C WATER BY DAY 5...SO WEAKENING IS EXPECTED
DURING THE LONGER-RANGE PART OF THE FORECAST. THE NEW OFFICIAL
INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS FASTER STRENGTHENING DURING THE FIRST 48
HOURS THAN INDICATED IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS JUST UNDER THE
SHIPS GUIDANCE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/1500Z 13.6N 107.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 13/0000Z 14.1N 108.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 13/1200Z 15.0N 109.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 14/0000Z 15.6N 111.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 14/1200Z 16.0N 112.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 15/1200Z 17.0N 115.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 16/1200Z 19.0N 117.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 17/1200Z 21.5N 118.5W 30 KT 35 MPH

$$
FORECASTER BERG

[cycloneye]

18z Best Track up to 45kts

EP, 06, 2012071218, , BEST, 0, 140N, 1079W, 45, 1000, TS

ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/inves ... 012.invest

[Yellow Evan]

Wow, Fabio is intensifying.

[Kingarabian]

Wow, Fabio is intensifying.

He's a sleeper.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM FABIO DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062012
200 PM PDT THU JUL 12 2012

FABIO CONSISTS OF AN ELONGATED SPIRAL CONVECTIVE BAND THAT WRAPS
FROM THE NORTHWEST AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE ESTIMATED
LOW-LEVEL CENTER. ALTHOUGH THE CENTER DOES NOT SEEM TO BE
COMPLETELY EMBEDDED BENEATH THE DEEPEST CONVECTION...THE BAND IS
LONG ENOUGH FOR TAFB AND SAB TO YIELD DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T3.0.
THE WINDS ARE THEREFORE RAISED TO 45 KT ON THIS ADVISORY.

THE CYCLONE IS TURNING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH A MOTION OF
290/9 KT. THE FORECAST TRACK REASONING IS THE SAME AS EARLIER
TODAY...WITH FABIO EXPECTED TO EVENTUALLY TURN NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD
INTO A DEVELOPING BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE MODEL
ENVELOPE IS GENERALLY BOUNDED BY THE ECMWF AND GFDL TO THE EAST AND
THE GFS AND HWRF FARTHER WEST BY DAYS 4 AND 5...BUT THE SPREAD
AMONG THE MODELS IS QUITE NEGLIGIBLE. CONSEQUENTLY...THERE IS
HIGHER-THAN-NORMAL CONFIDENCE IN THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST...
WHICH LIES VERY CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS TVCE.

FABIO APPEARS TO BE FEELING THE EFFECTS OF SOME NORTHEASTERLY
SHEAR...AND THE GLOBAL MODELS DO NOT SHOW THE SHEAR RELAXING MUCH
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS STILL EXPECTED
TO OCCUR...HOWEVER...AND FABIO COULD REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH IN
THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS. THE CYCLONE IS THEN EXPECTED TO CROSS A
TIGHT SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT TOWARD COLDER WATER IN ABOUT
3 DAYS...AND THAT SHOULD CAUSE FABIO TO WEAKEN QUICKLY TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST LIES AT
THE UPPER BOUND OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE NEAR THE SHIPS MODEL AND
FSU SUPERENSEMBLE.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/2100Z 14.2N 108.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 13/0600Z 14.9N 109.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 13/1800Z 15.6N 110.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 14/0600Z 16.1N 112.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 14/1800Z 16.4N 113.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 15/1800Z 17.5N 116.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 16/1800Z 19.5N 117.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 17/1800Z 22.0N 119.0W 30 KT 35 MPH

$$
FORECASTER BERG

[Cyclenall]

Fabio looks more like a hurricane type system with its present state of organization. Its strengthening faster than Emilia/Daniel did at this same point in their lives as TC's. It did everything I thought it would plus a little more as the huge convective canopy has started to do the wrap-around to form a hurricane rapidly. Whether its undergoing RI or not is hard to tell because the wrap-around might either be slow or fail. NOT OFFICIAL: My estimate is its 55 knots right now. Its a majestic system for sure!

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

If wind shear was low, this thing would rapidly intensify off the bat. I'm surprised it's strengthening as fast as it is right now with the shear it's encountering.

My intensity guess would be 50 knots.

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track up to 50kts

EP, 06, 2012071300, , BEST, 0, 137N, 1086W, 50, 998, TS

ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/inves ... 012.invest

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM FABIO DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062012
800 PM PDT THU JUL 12 2012

SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT FABIO HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED
DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. THE NORTHERLY SHEAR THAT WAS INHIBITING
DEEP CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE SYSTEM
APPEARS TO BE DIMINISHING. VISIBLE IMAGES SHOW A SMALL CENTRAL
DENSE OVERCAST FORMING OVER THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE...AND A
13/0015Z SSMIS OVERPASS REVEALED THE PRESENCE OF A PARTIAL EYEWALL
IN THE EAST QUADRANT. A BLEND OF THE SAB AND TAFB FINAL-T NUMBERS
SUPPORTS AN INCREASE IN THE INITIAL INTENSITY TO 50 KT FOR THIS
ADVISORY. THE STATISTICAL/DYNAMICAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW FABIO
STRENGTHENING TO A LOW-END HURRICANE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
AFTERWARD....THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN QUICKLY AS IT MOVES
OVER MUCH COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THE INTENSITY FORECAST
IS BASICALLY A COMPROMISE OF THE SHIPS...HWRF...AND THE LGEM MODELS
AND IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

VISIBLE IMAGES AND A COUPLE OF TIMELY MICROWAVE OVERPASSES SHOWED
THAT THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION WAS A BIT FARTHER SOUTH THAN
PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED. SUBSEQUENTLY...THE INITIAL MOTION IS A
LITTLE TO THE LEFT THAN BEFORE...280/9. THE DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE
IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH A GROWING WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
WITH TIME DUE TO AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM THE
NORTHWEST. THE DIFFERENCES IN THE GUIDANCE ARE EXHIBITED IN THE
AMPLITUDE OF THE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. THE ECMWF AND THE
GFDL INDICATE AN EARLIER AND FASTER TURN INTO THE WEAKNESS...AROUND
DAY 3 OR 4...WHILE THE GFS/HWRF/UKMET AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN SHOW
LESS INFLUENCE AND A MORE GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR
DAY 4. THE OFFICIAL NHC FORECAST HAS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE
LEFT...PRIMARILY DUE TO THE INITIAL POSITION ADJUSTMENT...AND
REMAINS CLOSE TO...BUT TO THE LEFT OF...THE MODEL CONSENSUS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/0300Z 13.9N 109.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 13/1200Z 14.4N 110.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 14/0000Z 15.1N 111.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 14/1200Z 15.6N 113.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 15/0000Z 16.0N 114.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 16/0000Z 17.0N 116.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 17/0000Z 19.0N 118.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 18/0000Z 21.5N 119.5W 30 KT 35 MPH

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS

[Yellow Evan]

Fabio should be a hurricane tomorrow.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM FABIO DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062012
200 AM PDT FRI JUL 13 2012

FABIO IS BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED WITH A CDO FEATURE PRESENT ALONG
WITH A LARGE CURVED BAND. INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB/SAB ARE
BOTH 55 KT...AND THIS WILL BE THE INITIAL INTENSITY. MICROWAVE
DATA SUGGESTS THE CENTER IS NEAR THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE
CDO...LIKELY DUE TO MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR. GUIDANCE HAS
BEEN CONSISTENTLY INDICATING THAT FABIO WILL BECOME NO MORE THAN A
LOW-END HURRICANE...WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE CONTINUED
SHEAR. WEAKENING WILL PROBABLY BEGIN IN A COUPLE OF DAYS DUE TO
COOLER WATERS...ALTHOUGH THE WIND SHEAR MIGHT DECREASE AROUND THAT
TIME TO MODERATE THE EFFECT OF THE SSTS. THE NHC FORECAST IS A
BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS...RESULTING
IN AN INTENSITY PREDICTION THAT ENDS UP A LITTLE LOWER BEYOND 36
HOURS.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 290/8. A RIDGE OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO
SHOULD STEER FABIO TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR WEST DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. THEREAFTER...A RATHER DEEP TROUGH FOR THIS TIME OF
THE YEAR IS FORECAST TO MOVE OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED
STATES...WHICH CAUSES THE RIDGE TO BREAK DOWN. FABIO SHOULD RESPOND
BY GRADUALLY TURNING NORTHWARD IN THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN...BUT
THERE ARE SOME LARGE TIMING DIFFERENCES ON WHEN THIS WILL OCCUR.
THE BULK OF THE COMPUTER MODEL TRACKS HAS GENERALLY SHIFTED TO THE
LEFT...DELAYING THE MORE POLEWARD MOTION. THE NEW NHC FORECAST
SHIFTS WESTWARD AS WELL...AND LIES NEAR A BLEND OF THE MODEL
CONSENSUS...GFS AND ECMWF MODELS.

THE WIND RADII WERE EXPANDED SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMICIRCLE DUE TO ASCAT DATA.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/0900Z 14.2N 109.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 13/1800Z 14.8N 110.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 14/0600Z 15.4N 112.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 14/1800Z 15.8N 113.8W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 15/0600Z 16.0N 115.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 16/0600Z 17.1N 117.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 17/0600Z 19.3N 119.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 18/0600Z 22.0N 120.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

12z Best Track remains at 55kts

EP, 06, 2012071312, , BEST, 0, 148N, 1102W, 55, 995, TS

ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/invest_ep062012.invest

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Fabio continues to deal with moderate northeasterly shear, as you can see in the image below, and that is keeping the center of circulation on the northern side of the Central Dense Overcast.

As I said yesterday, if shear was low, this would be a rapidly intensifying storm.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

TROPICAL STORM FABIO DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062012
800 AM PDT FRI JUL 13 2012

RECENT SSMI AND SSMIS DATA INDICATE THAT FABIO HAS DEVELOPED A
CLOSED RING OF DEEP CONVECTION...AND AN EYE-LIKE FEATURE HAS
BEEN OBSERVED INTERMITTENTLY IN INFRARED IMAGERY. DVORAK ESTIMATES
AT 1200 UTC FROM TAFB AND SAB REMAINED AT T3.0...OR 55 KT...AND THE
UW-CIMSS ADT JUMPED TO ABOUT 75 KT WHEN AN ADJUSTMENT FOR THE
MICROWAVE DATA WAS APPLIED. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BEING SET AT
60 KT FOR NOW...AND FABIO APPEARS TO BE ON THE VERGE OF BECOMING A
HURRICANE.

THE MICROWAVE DATA HELPED TO MORE ACCURATELY LOCATE THE LOW-LEVEL
CENTER...AND FABIO IS ESTIMATED TO BE MOVING 300 DEGREES AT 9 KT.
A DEVELOPING MID-/UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA IS
BEGINNING TO ERODE THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF FABIO...
AND A DIGGING SHORTWAVE TROUGH NEAR THE OREGON COAST SHOULD
HELP TO AMPLIFY THE TROUGH NORTH OF THE CYCLONE IN THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. THE TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT FABIO WILL
ULTIMATELY TURN NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE TROUGH BY DAY 5.
THE NEW NHC FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE THE ECMWF AND THE MODEL CONSENSUS
TVCE AND IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR IS STILL AFFECTING FABIO...BUT IT DOES NOT
APPEAR TO BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP THE CYCLONE FROM GRADUALLY
STRENGTHENING. ALTHOUGH RAPID INTENSIFICATION CANNOT BE RULED
OUT...THE SHIPS RI INDEX FOR A 30-KT INCREASE IN WINDS OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS IS ONLY AT 2 PERCENT. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY
FORECAST WILL THEREFORE NOT SHOW RAPID INTENSIFICATION...BUT
STRENGTHENING IS STILL EXPECTED BEFORE FABIO REACHES COLDER WATER
IN ABOUT 36 TO 48 HOURS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/1500Z 15.0N 110.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 14/0000Z 15.6N 111.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 14/1200Z 16.1N 113.4W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 15/0000Z 16.4N 115.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 15/1200Z 16.8N 116.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 16/1200Z 18.5N 119.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 17/1200Z 20.5N 120.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 18/1200Z 23.0N 121.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER BERG