SIO: GIOVANNA - Post-Tropical

[HURAKAN]

WTIO30 FMEE 100114
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 4/9/20112012
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 9 (GIOVANNA)
2.A POSITION 2012/02/10 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.7 S / 63.9 E
(FOURTEEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY THREE DECIMAL NINE
DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST-SOUTH-WEST 10 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.0/D 1.0/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 992 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 45 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :28 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 90 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 170
34 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 60
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2012/02/10 12 UTC: 15.6 S / 62.1 E, MAX WIND=055 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2012/02/11 00 UTC: 16.5 S / 60.4 E, MAX WIND=065 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
36H: 2012/02/11 12 UTC: 17.3 S / 58.9 E, MAX WIND=070 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
48H: 2012/02/12 00 UTC: 17.5 S / 57.7 E, MAX WIND=080 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
60H: 2012/02/12 12 UTC: 17.2 S / 56.1 E, MAX WIND=090 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL
CYCLONE
72H: 2012/02/13 00 UTC: 17.1 S / 53.9 E, MAX WIND=090 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL
CYCLONE
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2012/02/14 00 UTC: 17.8 S / 49.5 E, MAX WIND=080 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
120H: 2012/02/15 00 UTC: 20.4 S / 45.0 E, MAX WIND=020 KT, INLAND
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=3.0+
FOR THE LAST 6 HOURS, SYSTEM HAS INTENSIFIED WITH A ACTIVE CONVECTIVE
BAND WRAPPING IN THE WEST OF THE THE CENTRAL CLOUD MASS. BETWEEN
1710Z AND 2110Z, SLP OF 23946 BUOY IS STABLE DESPITE SYSTEM IS GOING AWAYWESTWARD.
SYSTEM IS TRACKING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 KT ON THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE LOW-MID LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SITUATED IN THE
SOUTH-EAST. WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS, SYSTEM SHOULD KEEP THIS TRACK.
ON SATURDAY, IT IS EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN A BIT DUE TO A WEAKNESS IN THE
MID LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC BELT IN THE SOUTH. BEYOND 48 TAU, TRACK SHOULD
RECURVE WESTWARD WITH THE REBUILDING OF HIGH PRESSURES SOUTH-EAST OF
MADAGASCAR. AVAILABLE NWP MODELS ARE IN RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT FOR
THIS TRACK. IN REGARD OF PREVIOUS RUN, ECMWF FORECAST THAT SYSTEM WILL
GO DOWN LESS TOWARD THE SOUTH ON SATURDAY WITH A LESS IMPORTANT
DECELERATION. CONSEQUENTLY, RSMC OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN A
LITTLE BIT READJUSTED.
ON THIS TRACK, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVOURABLE FOR A REGULAR
INTENSIFICATION UP TO SUNDAY. OCEANIC HEAT POTENTIAL IS VERY GOOD.
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS WEAK AND DIVERGENCE IS GOOD MAINLY SOUTHWARD.
POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL IS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE WITHIN THE NEXT 36
HOURS, AS THE SYSTEM IS APPROACHING OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
TRANSITING IN THE SOUTH.
ON SUNDAY EVENING AND AFTER, GIOVANNA SHOULD UNDERGO A WEAK TO
MODERATE EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF
REBUILDING UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURES. CONSEQUENTLY INTENSITY SHOULD
LEVEL OFF THEN A BIT REDUCE BEFORE THE LANDFALL ON THE EASTERN COAST
OF MADAGASCAR THAT IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY EARLY IN THE MORNING.
INHABITANTS OF MASCARENES ISLANDS AND OF THE EASTERN COAST OF
MADAGASCAR ARE INVITED TO FOLLOW WITH ATTENTION THE EVOLUTION OF
THIS SYSTEM. OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK BRING GIOVANNA VERY CLOSELY OF
SAINT-BRANDON ON SATURDAY IN THE MORNING.

[HURAKAN]

09/2330 UTC 14.8S 63.6E T3.5/3.5 GIOVANNA -- Southwest Indian

55 kt

[HURAKAN]

Latest visible

[HURAKAN]

WTXS31 PGTW 100300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (GIOVANNA) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (GIOVANNA) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
100000Z --- NEAR 14.7S 63.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.7S 63.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 15.4S 62.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 16.0S 60.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 16.5S 58.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 16.9S 57.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 17.3S 53.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 17.8S 49.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 19.5S 45.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
100300Z POSITION NEAR 14.9S 63.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 12S (GIOVANNA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 610 NM
NORTHEAST OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES CONVECTION HAS BEEN BUILDING STEADILY OVER THE PAST 12
HOURS OVER THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 092042Z AMSU-B
MICROWAVE PASS SHOWS DEEP TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE
LLCC ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW EQUATORWARD WITH AN IMPROVING POLEWARD OUTFLOW
CHANNEL SUPPORTED BY A DEEP MID-LATITUDE TROUGH LOCATED TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF TC 12S. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON A
CONSOLIDATION OF DVORAK FIXES FROM PGTW AND KNES. THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING OVERSHOOTING TOPS
IN THE DEEPEST CENTRAL CONVECTION AND PGTW/KNES FIXES WITH FAIR
CONFIDENCE. TC 12S HAS BEEN TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A
DEEP SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) BUT HAS RECENTLY TURNED TO THE
SOUTHWEST AS THE APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH HAS STARTED TO
ERODE THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
(SST) REMAIN VERY FAVORABLE FOR CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT. THE FORECAST
MAINTAINS THE CURRENT TRACK THROUGH TAU 36 AS THE TROUGH TRACKS
EASTWARD, ALLOWING THE STR TO BUILD BACK OVER MADAGASCAR AND
FLATTENING THE TRACK THROUGH TAU 72. LANDFALL IS EXPECTED AROUND TAU
96 WITH ANOTHER TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST AS TC 12S TRACKS OVER
MADAGASCAR. INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO BUILD THROUGH TAU 84 AS THE SST
VALUES REMAIN VERY FAVORABLE ALONG THE FORECASTED TRACK WITH GOOD
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE. BEYOND TAU 84 INCREASING LAND INTERACTION
WILL CAUSE A SLOW WEAKENING TREND THROUGH LANDFALL, WITH INCREASED
WEAKENING AS TC 12S TRACKS OVER CENTRAL MADAGASCAR. MODEL GUIDANCE
IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH NGPS, GFS, GFDN, AND ECMF ALL SHOWING A
SIMILAR TRACK. THIS FORECAST FAVORS THE CONSENSUS OF ALL AVAILABLE
GUIDANCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 100000Z IS 10 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 101500Z AND 110300Z.//
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.8 / 987.8mb/ 61.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.8 3.8 3.8

[HurricaneBill]

I don't like the looks of this one.

[Chacor]

Upgraded to STS:

WTIO30 FMEE 100650
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 5/9/20112012
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 9 (GIOVANNA)
2.A POSITION 2012/02/10 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.3 S / 62.5 E
(FIFTEEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY TWO DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST-SOUTH-WEST 12 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/3.5/D 0.5/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 990 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 50 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :NIL
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 90 SE: 170 SW: 130 NW: 90
34 KT NE: 60 SE: 90 SW: 90 NW: 60
48 KT NE: 40 SE: 40 SW: 40 NW: 40
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2012/02/10 18 UTC: 16.3 S / 61.1 E, MAX WIND=055 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2012/02/11 06 UTC: 17.1 S / 59.6 E, MAX WIND=070 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
36H: 2012/02/11 18 UTC: 17.6 S / 58.3 E, MAX WIND=080 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
48H: 2012/02/12 06 UTC: 17.4 S / 56.8 E, MAX WIND=090 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
60H: 2012/02/12 18 UTC: 17.1 S / 55.1 E, MAX WIND=095 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
72H: 2012/02/13 06 UTC: 17.3 S / 53.0 E, MAX WIND=085 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2012/02/14 06 UTC: 18.3 S / 49.0 E, MAX WIND=000 , INLAND
120H: 2012/02/15 06 UTC: 21.2 S / 44.1 E, MAX WIND=000 , INLAND
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
FOR THE LAST 6 HOURS, SYSTEM HAS INTENSIFIED SLOWLY, AND ALWAYS SHOWS A CDO PATTERN.
SYSTEM IS TRACKING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD ON THE NORTH-WESTERN EDGE OF THE LOW-MID LEVEL SUBTROPICAL R
IDGE SITUATED IN THE SOUTH-EAST. WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS, SYSTEM SHOULD KEEP THIS TRACK.
ON SATURDAY, IT IS EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN A BIT DUE TO A WEAKNESS IN THE MID LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC BEL
T IN THE SOUTH. BEYOND 36 TAU, TRACK SHOULD RECURVE WESTWARD WITH THE REBUILDING OF HIGH PRESSURES
SOUTH-EAST OF MADAGASCAR. AVAILABLE NWP MODELS ARE IN RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THIS TRACK.
ON THIS TRACK, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVOURABLE FOR A REGULAR INTENSIFICATION UP TO SUNDAY.
OCEANIC HEAT POTENTIAL IS VERY GOOD. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS WEAK AND DIVERGENCE IS GOOD MAINLY SO
UTHWARD.
POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL IS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS, AS THE SYSTEM IS APPROAC
HING OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TRANSITING IN THE SOUTH.
ON MONDAY, GIOVANNA SHOULD UNDERGO A WEAK TO MODERATE EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ON THE NORTHERN
SIDE OF REBUILDING UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURES. SO INTENSITY SHOULD REDUCE BEFORE THE LANDFALL ON
THE EASTERN COAST OF MADAGASCAR, EXPECTED ON TUESDAY MORNING.
INHABITANTS OF MASCARENES ISLANDS AND OF THE EASTERN COAST OF MADAGASCAR ARE INVITED TO FOLLOW WIT
H ATTENTION THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM. OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK BRING GIOVANNA VERY CLOSELY TO S
AINT-BRANDON ON SATURDAY IN THE MORNING.

[P.K.]

60kts with 100kts now forecast.

WTIO30 FMEE 101213
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 6/9/20112012
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 9 (GIOVANNA)
2.A POSITION 2012/02/10 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 10 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.6 S / 61.6 E
(FIFTEEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY ONE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST-SOUTH-WEST 10 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/4.0/D 0.5/6 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 980 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 60 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :15 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 90 SE: 170 SW: 130 NW: 90
34 KT NE: 60 SE: 90 SW: 90 NW: 60
48 KT NE: 40 SE: 40 SW: 40 NW: 40
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2012/02/11 00 UTC: 16.6 S / 59.9 E, MAX WIND=070 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H: 2012/02/11 12 UTC: 17.2 S / 58.5 E, MAX WIND=085 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
36H: 2012/02/12 00 UTC: 17.2 S / 57.3 E, MAX WIND=095 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
48H: 2012/02/12 12 UTC: 17.0 S / 55.9 E, MAX WIND=100 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
60H: 2012/02/13 00 UTC: 17.1 S / 53.8 E, MAX WIND=085 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
72H: 2012/02/13 12 UTC: 17.4 S / 51.4 E, MAX WIND=075 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2012/02/14 12 UTC: 18.0 S / 46.3 E, MAX WIND=000 , INLAND
120H: 2012/02/15 12 UTC: 20.7 S / 42.3 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, TROPICAL DISTURBANCE
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
SYSTEM IS GOING ON INTENSIFYING, IT GOING INTO AN EYE STRUCTURE, AND AN SMALL EYE IS NOW VISIBLE O
N SATELITE IMAGERY.
SYSTEM IS TRACKING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD ON THE NORTH-WESTERN EDGE OF THE LOW-MID LEVEL SUBTROPICAL R
IDGE SITUATED IN THE SOUTH-EAST. WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS, SYSTEM SHOULD KEEP THIS TRACK.
ON SATURDAY, IT IS EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN A BIT DUE TO A WEAKNESS IN THE MID LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC BEL
T IN THE SOUTH. BEYOND 24 TAU, TRACK SHOULD RECURVE WESTWARD WITH THE REBUILDING OF HIGH PRESSURES
SOUTH-EAST OF MADAGASCAR. AVAILABLE NWP MODELS ARE IN RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THIS TRACK.
ON THIS TRACK, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVOURABLE FOR A REGULAR INTENSIFICATION UP TO SUNDAY.
OCEANIC HEAT POTENTIAL IS VERY GOOD. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS WEAK AND DIVERGENCE IS GOOD MAINLY SO
UTHWARD.
POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL IS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 30 HOURS, WITH THE UPPER LEV
EL TROUGH PASSING IN THE SOUTH.
ON MONDAY, GIOVANNA SHOULD UNDERGO A WEAK TO MODERATE EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ON THE NORTHERN
SIDE OF REBUILDING UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURES. SO SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN BEFORE THE LANDFAL
L ON THE EASTERN COAST OF MADAGASCAR, AT THE END OF NIGHT BETWEEN MONDAY AND TUESDAY.THE RESIDUAL
CENTRE SHOULD COME BACK OVER SEAS IN THE MOZAMBICAL CHANNEL ON WEDNESDAY WITHIN A FAVOURABLE ENVIR
ONMENT.

[HURAKAN]

20120210 1130 -15.6 -61.7 T4.5/4.5 12S GIOVANNA

75 kt

[HURAKAN]

eye already visible

[HURAKAN]

wide look

[HURAKAN]

latest microwave

[HURAKAN]

WTXS31 PGTW 101500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (GIOVANNA) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (GIOVANNA) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
101200Z --- NEAR 15.6S 61.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.6S 61.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 16.2S 60.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 16.7S 58.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 16.9S 57.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 17.0S 55.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 17.5S 50.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 18.6S 46.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 21.0S 42.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
101500Z POSITION NEAR 15.8S 61.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 12S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 480 NM NORTHEAST OF
LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT
TC 12S HAS RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATED AND HAS NOW FORMED AN INCIPIENT EYE.
ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES EXCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW WITH
STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW ENHANCED BY A DEEP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
POSITIONED SOUTHEAST OF MADAGASCAR. CONSEQUENTLY, DVORAK ESTIMATES
HAVE INCREASED TO 65 (PGTW/FMEE) TO 77 KNOTS (KNES). THE CURRENT
INTENSITY WAS ASSESSED AT 65 KNOTS BASED ON THE WEAK EYE IN VISIBLE
IMAGERY AND THE SIGNATURE IN THE 100919Z AMSU IMAGE. THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION BASED ON THE EYE. TC 12S IS
CURRENTLY TRACKING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD (WSW) ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) AS A MIDLATITUDE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROPAGATES SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. THIS WSW TRACK IS
EXPECTED TO BE SHORT-LIVED AS THE TROUGH MOVES EAST AND A STR BUILDS
INTO SOUTHERN MADAGASCAR PROVIDING A WESTWARD STEERING INFLUENCE.
THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC GUIDANCE IS IN EXCEPTIONALLY TIGHT AGREEMENT
AND SUPPORTS THE JTWC TRACK, WHICH IS POSITIONED VERY CLOSE TO THE
MODEL CONSENSUS AS WELL AS THE ECMWF MODEL. DUE TO THE FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT, TC 12S IS FORECAST TO STRENGHTHEN TO A PEAK OF 110
KNOTS WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN
SIGNIFICANTLY AS IT TRACKS ACROSS MADAGASCAR; HOWEVER, RE-
DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED IN THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL AFTER TAU 120.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 101200Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 110300Z AND 111500Z.//
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

10 hours ago

[HURAKAN]

looking very impressive

[HURAKAN]

10/1730 UTC 16.0S 61.0E T5.0/5.0 GIOVANNA -- Southwest Indian

90 kt

[HURAKAN]

10/1730 UTC 16.0S 61.0E T5.5/5.5 GIOVANNA -- Southwest Indian

updated to 100 kt by Dvorak

[P.K.]

60kts to 100kts in just 6 hours, very impressive. We've also skipped TC status here completely.

WTIO20 FMEE 101819
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 10/02/2012
AT
1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 007/9 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND).
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: FRIDAY 10/02/2012 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 9 (GIOVANNA) 939 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 10 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.1 S / 61.0 E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY ONE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 8 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN A 150 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE,
EXTENDING UP TO 250 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CERCLE.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/100KT AND PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN A 16NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 20 NM RADIUS FROM
THE CENTRE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 50 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 60 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 90
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 120 NM IN THE
NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 140 NM IN THE SOUT-WESTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2012/02/11 AT 06 UTC:
17.2 S / 59.6 E, MAX WIND = 110 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H, VALID 2012/02/11 AT 18 UTC:
18.2 S / 58.3 E, MAX WIND = 110 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE

OTHER INFORMATIONS:
SYSTEM HAS UNDERGONE EXPLOSIVE DEEPENING SINCE THE PAST SIX HOURS.=

[HURAKAN]

Latest track

[HURAKAN]

latest infrared