#24 Postby Chacor » Thu Jan 19, 2012 2:22 pm
WTIO30 FMEE 191857
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 4/8/20112012
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 8 (FUNSO)
2.A POSITION 2012/01/19 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.2 S / 39.9 E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND THIRTY NINE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST-SOUTH-WEST 8 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/3.5/D 1.0/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 990 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 45 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :19 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SW: 90 NW: 90
34 KT NE: 70 SE: 70 SW: 60 NW: 60
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1003 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2012/01/20 06 UTC: 18.4 S / 38.7 E, MAX WIND=060 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2012/01/20 18 UTC: 18.9 S / 37.6 E, MAX WIND=070 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
36H: 2012/01/21 06 UTC: 18.7 S / 37.0 E, MAX WIND=070 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
48H: 2012/01/21 18 UTC: 18.4 S / 37.3 E, MAX WIND=070 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
60H: 2012/01/22 06 UTC: 18.4 S / 38.0 E, MAX WIND=075 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
72H: 2012/01/22 18 UTC: 18.7 S / 39.0 E, MAX WIND=080 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2012/01/23 18 UTC: 20.5 S / 39.7 E, MAX WIND=090 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
120H: 2012/01/24 18 UTC: 21.9 S / 37.8 E, MAX WIND=105 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
T AND CI=3.5-
CLOUD PATTERN HAS CONSISTENTLY IMPROVED ALONG THE DAY WITH VERY DEEP CONVECTION FLARRING AND WRAPPING
AROUND THE CENTER.
EUROPEANS NWP MODELS (ECMWF, UKMO, ARPEGE) ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR A GLOBALLY SOUTHWESTWARDS FORECAST
TRACK UP TO TAU 36 TO 48 HOURS ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND THEN A EASTWARDS
TO SOUTHEASTWARDS TRACK WITH A STEERING FLOW DIRECTED BY THE EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST
BEFORE A NEW WESTWARDS TURN AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD UNDER TH E STEERING INFLUENCE OF A
STR THAT SHOULD BUILD SOUTH OF THE CHANNEL .
OVER THIS TRACK, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE VERY FAVOURABLE FOR REGULAR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH
A GOOD LOW LEVEL INFLOW ON THE BOTH SIDES, WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WELL SUSTAINED BY TWO UPPER
LEVEL OUTFLOW CHANNELS, HEAT POTENTIAL IS STRONG OVER 29/30 CELSIUS SST. THE INTENSIFICATION PROCESS
IS HELD OFF BETWEEN 36H AND 72H AS THE SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE LITTLE NEAR THE MOZAMBICAN COASTS. THIS
SLOW MOTION OVER THE SAME WATERS COULD BE AN INHIBITING FACTORS.
WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS, THE SYSTEM SHOULD GET CLOSER OF THE MOZAMBICAN COASTS NEAR THE QUELIMANE
REGION ... WITH A POTENTIAL DIRECT IMPACT THAT COULD NOT BE RULED OUT AT THIS TIME ...INHABITANTS
OF THIS SECTOR SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS SYSTEM.
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