ATL: DEBBY - Post-Tropical

[Stratosphere747]

18z GFDL has changed and is inline with most of the other models. Approaches Grand Isle before turning W and hugging the coast.

[Evil Jeremy]

Wibbly wobbly, flippity floppity, the GFDL is back west for the 18z run:

https://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/image ... orm_04.gif

[jlauderdal]

One of Debby's feeder bands about to move through... yeah Im the little red plus sign in the way

yep, we just had some outflow from that line go through here, temp just dropped...common in these situations 45mph at miami beach 30 mins ago

[KWT]

GFDL does the exact thing I was saying could happen if the system gets far enough north (IE, coastal hug)

[crimi481]

Last few frames - the "other" low to the N.E. clearly visible
This storm is all over W, Florida. Getting stronger

http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/data/geo/index ... thod=flash

[Rgv20]

Yes Don was a complete fail for well needed STX rains.

lol Don it look so promising on the radar and then poof! IIRC we were expecting at least 3 inches...got nothing.

Debby looks like she took a seat....currently stationary

[jlauderdal]

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[ozonepete]

Pressure: 1000 MB
Maximum Wind Gusts: 50 MPH
Movement: Stationary

As of 8 P.M. advisory.

Aha. I just recently posted that you could see the center they have been following has gone stationary. And I just have to say it looks like it is getting pulled eastward or northeastward at this time, gradually shifting under the convection. That could of course make for a significant adjustment towards the GFS solution.

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[KWT]

Nice set of storms moving through Florida, think no matter what direction it moves in you guys are going to be getting a fair amount of rain over the next few days.

[WeatherGuesser]

Hey!! Where'd Florida go?

[Nimbus]

The outflow is starting to work its way back NW towards LA which is a change from this morning. Looks like the shear from the front is starting to relax.

[Sanibel]

That would be something if those center fluxes were a heave towards the GFS direction, although they're probably just upper pulses.

[AHS2011]

I see that convection is starting to try to wrap around the center starting from the north part of Debby. Anyone else agree?

[cycloneye]

Look at that big shield of rain.

[jlauderdal]

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[ozonepete]

I see that convection is starting to try to wrap around the center starting from the north part of Debby. Anyone else agree?

Center appears to be consolidating at a location to the northeast, yes. It is getting more obvious on the visible and especially RGB satellite images. I'm quite sure the experts at NHC see this and getting more confident that they will be making some adjustments for the 11PM. There's enough time until then for them to think it through and nobody is better at this than they are. They always use caution and that's the only way to go. So far I totally understand and agree with what they've done, even if the GFS turns out to be the better solution.

[Air Force Met]

I see that convection is starting to try to wrap around the center starting from the north part of Debby. Anyone else agree?

Those are just cold cirrus tops. Shear still strong and will remain so for next day or two.

[Jevo]

18z HWRF has shifted north from its last run

18z NOAA Operational Models

[cycloneye]

I just saw NHC Stacey Stewart on TWC. He stated that all northern gulf coast is gonna feel effects like gusty winds, plenty of rain, isolated tornadoes. But he said Texas is gonna feel the most middle of next week. Didn't seem unsure of their forecast at all.

[Jevo]

18z HWRF has changed its tune from the Tex/Mex border in the 12z Run to what looks to be close to Freeport Tx... Midway between Galveston and Matagorda Bay.. Or about a 200mile shift north