ATL: SANDY - Models

[Aric Dunn]

nogaps has shifted west about 100 miles or so. that a decent change. though it is the nogaps... although its does do well with winter/synoptic features and this will be transitioning so maybe its worth paying attention to.

[Aric Dunn]

little change in the 12z cmc maybe just slightly more west initially.. on the west side of jamaica then very close to the gfs.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

whats interesting is you see that trough wash out almost and the ridging trying to build north of it but can quite and it gets pushed out to sea. if it were a little slower moving north that ridge would very likely build back to its north.

[Hurricaneman]

The GFS ensemble means hit new england and is WAY west of the op at the 7 day range

[Blown Away]

GFS 06z vs 12z, almost identical off SFL coast. GFS seems to be speeding up Sandy with each run.

[DESTRUCTION5]

^Those look like mirror images..LOL..Dont see the speed up at least not thru 72 hrs.

[ozonepete]

why is it that some of the ensemble models for sandy hit the east coast? how reliable do you think those ensemble models are?

They are the members that see the deep trough in the central/eastern U.S. tilting negatively and maybe even closing off over the Ohio valley. This would cause the 500mb (mid-level steering) flow over the eastern U.S. to set up from southeast to northwest which would steer Sandy back toward the mid-Atlantic coast or New England. (There is also a complex interaction with a large low in the north Atlantic expected.) As Aric said before and the HPC discussion from this morning said, more and more of the ensemble members are starting to show this trend with each run. If more than half of them do in later runs, the "regular", operational GFS itself will start to show this and then it will come into line with the ggem, euro, cmc, nogaps, etc. The HPC is currently leaning towards that solution and Dr. Masters is also fairly concerned about that outcome. We'll still have to wait another day or two to see how it shakes out.
(You can see the HPC discussion a little further back in this thread - cycloneye posted it earlier. It's an interesting read.)

[Blown Away]

^Those look like mirror images..LOL..Dont see the speed up at least not thru 72 hrs.

I meant to say compared to yesterdays run.

[cycloneye]

why is it that some of the ensemble models for sandy hit the east coast? how reliable do you think those ensemble models are?

They are the members that see the deep trough in the central/eastern U.S. tilting negatively and maybe even closing off over the Ohio valley. This would cause the 500mb (mid-level steering) flow over the eastern U.S. to set up from southeast to northwest which would steer Sandy back toward the mid-Atlantic coast or New England. (There is also a complex interaction with a large low in the north Atlantic expected.) As Aric said before and the HPC discussion from this morning said, more and more of the ensemble members are starting to show this trend with each run. If more than half of them do in later runs, the "regular", operational GFS itself will start to show this and then it will come into line with the ggem, euro, cmc, nogaps, etc. The HPC is currently leaning towards that solution and Dr. Masters is also fairly concerned about that outcome. We'll still have to wait another day or two to see how it shakes out.
(You can see the HPC discussion a little further back in this thread - cycloneye posted it earlier. It's an interesting read.)

Not in this thread but at the Sandy main discussion thread.

[GCANE]

UKMET

http://data.theweather.com.au/access/im ... lp.168.png

[SFLcane]

UKMET

http://data.theweather.com.au/access/im ... lp.168.png

Can't see that image..

[adam0983]

I am waiting to see what the Euro will show.

[Aric Dunn]

gfdl has a little bend to the nw the heads nne like euro and bends back towards mid atlantic.

toggle last 2 images.

http://flhurricane.com/modelanimator.ph ... 2&title=18

[Evil Jeremy]

EURO looks a little bit west of the 00z run so far through 48 hours:
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... SLP048.gif

[GCANE]

UKMET

http://data.theweather.com.au/access/im ... lp.168.png

Can't see that image..

Sorry, having trouble with it myself. It was coming off an Australian met site.

Basically showing a major cane ripping thru NYC.

[CrazyC83]

UKMET

http://data.theweather.com.au/access/im ... lp.168.png

Can't see that image..

Sorry, having trouble with it myself. It was coming off an Australian met site.

Basically showing a major cane ripping thru NYC.

No model is forecasting major hurricane-force winds. The pressure-wind relationships are going to be far from what they are normally due to the huge size. Even the ECMWF 928mb run yesterday only had upper-level winds of about 95 kt, and that was not going to make it to the surface in the cooler air.

[Aric Dunn]

72hours over top andros Island. thats pretty darn close to florida.

[adam0983]

from that position what kind of conditions can Florida expect?

[cycloneye]

I think NHC will do a blend between GFS and ECMWF for the 5 PM track.

[gatorcane]

I don't see huffman's site updated so I can compare from the 00Z but that would mean a west shift by the ECMWF.....

[Aric Dunn]

96hrs begins to pull away but slowly ! and deepens. looks tropical still... euro has 60 to 75 mph winds just offshore florida.