ATL: ERNESTO - Post-Tropical

[hurricanes1234]

If this system misses the island chain completely and instead takes a track east of the Bahamas, like most Cape-Verde storms, is it likely then that it would become a major hurricane, considering the ocean heat content is rather high (29°C - 30°C) and the air is relatively moist?

I think that this invest's best chance of gaining Major status is to stay on a Caribbean course. From what I remember, the SAL is higher as you move north, particularly around
Bahamas. Heat content is fairly high and shear is low right now. I think shear may play an inhibiting rol
e later in the forecast period. I know people want to know what this thing is going to do but it is a watch and wait type of scenario.
Tim

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Thanks...

[IreneSurvivor47]

40-50 watch me be wrong though.

[cycloneye]

Up to 50%

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BECOME A LITTLE MORE CONCENTRATED
NEAR THE CENTER OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 1150 MILES
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
ARE AT LEAST MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS DISTURBANCE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT
15 TO 20 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS

[IreneSurvivor47]

Woo-Hoo! Our little buddy is doing well. Maybe Td this time tomorrow

[CrazyC83]

Are there any early-season comparable systems? Especially if this stays low...

[cycloneye]

Are there any early-season comparable systems? Especially if this stays low...

Emily of 2005?

[RL3AO]

Well it is August 1st tomorrow. Getting to a point where its not really a super early CV system.

[cycloneye]

After a couple of days not running,HWRF comes again. Caribbean cruiser.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation

[mcheer23]

Up to 50%

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BECOME A LITTLE MORE CONCENTRATED
NEAR THE CENTER OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 1150 MILES
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
ARE AT LEAST MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS DISTURBANCE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT
15 TO 20 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS

I called it

[mcheer23]

Code red very possible at 2

[leanne_uk]

Fear and worry are starting to set in :/

[cycloneye]

Fear and worry are starting to set in :/

Are the authorities of Grenada talked about this system and about preparations?

[IreneSurvivor47]

Do we have an east coaster or south gulf storm? I know it's early but...

[Riptide]

Do we have an east coaster or south gulf storm? I know it's early but...

I don't believe it's possible for 99L to affect the East Coast because of the upper-level blocking over the great lakes, if it does cruise through the carribean then 99L will be in a very problematic position, likely a major hurricane if it survives unfavorable conditions.


The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[knotimpaired]

Hi Luis, Gusty, Aric, MJ. and all.

It's that time of the year again.

Keep up the good work

[Zanthe]

Yo, guys. I think we need to keep things in perspective. We don't even have a TD yet.

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track

AL, 99, 2012080100, , BEST, 0, 97N, 430W, 25, 1009, LO

ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/inves ... 012.invest

[ROCK]

After a couple of days not running,HWRF comes again. Caribbean cruiser.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation

see how it weaken it as it enter the carib but then ramps it back up as it nears Jam? probably shear induced weakening trend then it abates some and it regains strength....interesting

[RL3AO]

Yo, guys. I think we need to keep things in perspective. We don't even have a TD yet.

Oh rookie you must be new to s2k.

[Zanthe]

Yo, guys. I think we need to keep things in perspective. We don't even have a TD yet.

Oh rookie you must be new to s2k.

I stalked for a while before I joined, and that's just an epic statement.