ATL: ISAAC - Models

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KWT
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#1781 Postby KWT » Wed Aug 22, 2012 5:13 pm

Well itscertainly in the Gulf by 126hrs again, probably enough for strengthening I'd imagine given a decent motion.
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#1782 Postby BigB0882 » Wed Aug 22, 2012 5:14 pm

It seems to have some westerly movement but I would call it more of a NNW movement by the time it nears the west coast of Florida. Let's see the next map to get a confirmation on that, though.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#1783 Postby bamajammer4eva » Wed Aug 22, 2012 5:14 pm

18z @129

http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS/2 ... sl_129.gif

12z @ 135

http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS/2 ... sl_135.gif
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#1784 Postby Weatherfreak000 » Wed Aug 22, 2012 5:14 pm

Looks like GFS shifting west long term
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#1785 Postby ROCK » Wed Aug 22, 2012 5:15 pm




your cannot hotlink these images.....sorry bro
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#1786 Postby SeminoleWind » Wed Aug 22, 2012 5:15 pm

@ 135 down to 991
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#1787 Postby thetraveler » Wed Aug 22, 2012 5:15 pm

Looking at the 12Z 132 hour map vs the 6Z 117 hour map, it appears to be west about 20 miles but the pressure is about the same. Not much of a shift.
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#1788 Postby KWT » Wed Aug 22, 2012 5:15 pm

West coast of Florida gets raked on this run by at least TS strength winds. Would be a very unusual track if it came off.

Heading NNW at 132hrs, should connect to that upper weakness.
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#1789 Postby HurricaneBrain » Wed Aug 22, 2012 5:16 pm

GFS Nearing Florida landfall @ 138hr
Image
Last edited by HurricaneBrain on Wed Aug 22, 2012 5:18 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#1790 Postby bamajammer4eva » Wed Aug 22, 2012 5:17 pm

ROCK wrote:
bamajammer4eva wrote:18z @129




your cannot hotlink these images.....sorry bro


:cry: :oops:
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#1791 Postby meriland23 » Wed Aug 22, 2012 5:17 pm

18z GFS 141 hr

Image

Uploaded with ImageShack.us
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#1792 Postby SeminoleWind » Wed Aug 22, 2012 5:17 pm

@ 141 looks like into the Big Bend area, Boy with this GFS run its like the more things change the more they stay the same.
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#1793 Postby BigB0882 » Wed Aug 22, 2012 5:18 pm

landfall (CONUS) in the big bend. That is pretty rare, isn't it?
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#1794 Postby Kingarabian » Wed Aug 22, 2012 5:18 pm

So do we have some consensus between the Euro and the GFS?
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#1795 Postby adam0983 » Wed Aug 22, 2012 5:18 pm

How Long is the width of Florida with this current GFS run what should metro Broward and Palm Beach and Dade Country expect with winds and rain?
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#1796 Postby Kingarabian » Wed Aug 22, 2012 5:19 pm

Basically a Ditto of the NHC track.
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#1797 Postby SouthFLTropics » Wed Aug 22, 2012 5:19 pm

GFS is pretty consistent with 3 runs in a row now...South tip scrape and across the Keys and then up the West Coast into the big bend. We are still a long ways out yet and a lot can change with land interaction and center reformations as well as the G-IV data and balloon sounding data getting into the models. I think by Friday afternoon we will start dialing it in.

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#1798 Postby KWT » Wed Aug 22, 2012 5:20 pm

BigB0882 wrote:landfall (CONUS) in the big bend. That is pretty rare, isn't it?


From what I've heard it is rare indeed. My gut though is it may need to be shifted a little further west yet, the GFS is a smidge west, not much though and pretty close to the 12z really.
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#1799 Postby meriland23 » Wed Aug 22, 2012 5:20 pm

150 at 990 mb, think lowest
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#1800 Postby bamajammer4eva » Wed Aug 22, 2012 5:20 pm

Looks like landfall at Tallahassee errrrr Wakulla beach/Sopchoppy beach area at 144
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