ATL: DEBBY - Post-Tropical

[Texas Snowman]

Not over-react or anything... This is a very a large system and the NHC has mentioned it can move faster than forecasted. Doesn't hurt to have a link on your main page .

They probably will soon. They popped out this tweet 10 minutes ago:

"@cnnbrk: Tropical Storm Debby has formed in the Gulf of Mexico, the National Hurricane Center reported Saturday. http://on.cnn.com/ckS2ec ."

[WeatherGuesser]

Not over-react or anything... This is a very a large system and the NHC has mentioned it can move faster than forecasted. Doesn't hurt to have a link on your main page .

I don't imagine much of the national media is saying too much yet. They're working other stories.

Local media will probably get on it first.

[Evil Jeremy]

The NHC has made their bed and lied in it. Either they will look like geniuses, or this will become one of the greatest forecasting fails in recent memory. With models all over the place, they should have played it safe initially, but instead chose west.

Well they had to make a call. I sure wouldn't bet against them. If it turns out to be wrong there's plenty of time to change things as warranted. you could outrun this thing on a rascal scooter so no worries.

Yea, they can always change their cone, but do it two quickly and you can loose credibility in the public eye.

The NHC has made their bed and lied in it. Either they will look like geniuses, or this will become one of the greatest forecasting fails in recent memory. With models all over the place, they should have played it safe initially, but instead chose west.

And what would safe be.. North..?

I don't know, but what they did certainly wasn't playing it safe for the first advisory.

[Dave]

000
URNT15 KNHC 232116
AF302 01AAA INVEST HDOB 34 20120623
210900 2744N 08546W 8912 01071 //// +170 //// 127047 048 /// /// 05
210930 2743N 08547W 8493 01480 //// +152 //// 125045 046 028 007 01
211000 2742N 08549W 8442 01531 //// +148 //// 120044 045 029 007 01
211030 2740N 08550W 8425 01550 //// +147 //// 120047 048 031 007 01
211100 2739N 08551W 8433 01537 //// +148 //// 124050 052 028 007 01
211130 2738N 08553W 8427 01543 //// +153 //// 124052 053 028 007 01
211200 2737N 08554W 8429 01539 //// +158 //// 120050 052 030 006 01
211230 2736N 08555W 8430 01536 //// +150 //// 121051 052 033 008 01
211300 2734N 08557W 8429 01536 //// +145 //// 119052 053 034 009 01
211330 2733N 08558W 8427 01538 //// +143 //// 118052 053 035 012 01
211400 2732N 08600W 8429 01535 //// +148 //// 116052 052 036 013 01
211430 2731N 08601W 8430 01532 //// +148 //// 116051 052 038 013 01
211500 2730N 08602W 8429 01532 //// +153 //// 111050 051 039 013 01
211530 2728N 08604W 8430 01530 //// +154 //// 106048 049 039 013 01
211600 2727N 08605W 8430 01530 //// +153 //// 104047 048 039 011 01
211630 2726N 08607W 8433 01524 //// +150 //// 105048 049 038 009 01
211700 2724N 08608W 8430 01526 //// +150 //// 102049 050 038 007 01
211730 2723N 08610W 8429 01526 //// +159 //// 104046 049 041 006 01
211800 2722N 08611W 8432 01522 //// +162 //// 102046 046 042 008 01
211830 2721N 08613W 8429 01523 //// +153 //// 094045 046 044 010 01
$$
;

[TexasF6]

@Evil Jeremy: "If you only knew the POWER of the EURO side of the FORCE!--You would know that the NHC could never be turned..."

[Ikester]

For those of you who think ''big changes'' are coming to the cone, you can probably think again. The NHC has credibility on the line and shifting a cone 180 degrees to the right is uncharacteristic and irresponsible. You may notice subtle changes but nothing dramatic. These forecasts are not thrown together in 20 minutes. These advisories take hours to put together after thorough examination of high res. satellites and model data not privy to the general public. It should be known however that a tropical cyclone will strike outside the cone 1/3 of the time to the south or north. There was a study done by a meteorologist at HGX a few years ago who found that gulf storms who miss their forecast targets miss to the RIGHT almost 70% of the time. Keep that in mind.

[KWT]

The NHC has made their bed and lied in it. Either they will look like geniuses, or this will become one of the greatest forecasting fails in recent memory. With models all over the place, they should have played it safe initially, but instead chose west.

Well they had to make a call. I sure wouldn't bet against them. If it turns out to be wrong there's plenty of time to change things as warranted. you could outrun this thing on a rascal scooter so no worries.

The thing is with this system its one solution or the other, there will be no middle ground with it given the players that are involved in this systems track.

The west track seems logical unless the system decides to get tucked into the convection at any point and relocate further E/NE, which is very possible IMO.

[Texas Snowman]

Have some of you all read the discussions? One of the primary reasons they went west is because so many of the GFS ensemble members went west. NHC is a collection of some of the best hurricane forecasters the are ...so .. It will be extremely interesting to watch Debbie's progression over the next few days.

I was just thinking the same thing! LOL! While they may change their thinking, the current forecast is just that - it's a forecast based on their information currently in hand, their knowledge and experience, and everything else that goes into being a forecaster at NHC.

Regardless of where it goes or does not go, I am certain that they didn't pick the westerly track out for Advisory #1 by flipping a coin or throwing a dart at a dartboard.

[Tireman4]

For those of you who think ''big changes'' are coming to the cone, you can probably think again. The NHC has credibility on the line and shifting a cone 180 degrees to the right is uncharacteristic and irresponsible. You may notice subtle changes but nothing dramatic. These forecasts are not thrown together in 20 minutes. These advisories take hours to put together after thorough examination of high res. satellites and model data not privy to the general public. It should be known however that a tropical cyclone will strike outside the cone 1/3 of the time to the south or north. There was a study done by a meteorologist at HGX a few years ago who found that gulf storms who miss their forecast targets miss to the RIGHT almost 70% of the time. Keep that in mind.

What I just stated. Thanks Ikester!!!

[WeatherGuesser]

There was a study done by a meteorologist at HGX a few years ago who found that gulf storms who miss their forecast targets miss to the RIGHT almost 70% of the time. Keep that in mind.

Are you hinting at a possibility of Galveston?

[HouTXmetro]

I have no credentials to go against the NHC, but on satellite Debby looks a HOT MESS. unless a convective LLC establishes itself i think we will see constant center relocation which may lend support to the GFS or more northerly solution. We shall see.

[Disclaimer: My Amateur Opinion, please defer to your local authorities or the NHC for Guidance]

[Snow Deprived365]

Do you guys think the Houston area would get any rain from this if the current NHC track holds true?

[KatDaddy]

Game on now! Hoping there is more model consistency by tomorrow evening so I can plan when if needed to head back to League City from NTX to make preps.

[psyclone]

The NHC won't make dramatic changes in one forecast cycle. it's not their style and they don't need to with the storm's slow forward motion. think back to katrina. the forecast shifted from the eastern panhandle to ms/la over a number of forecast cycles. they will acknowledge a trend slowly and yield if needed. they are the best hands down.

[Vortex]

18z GFS about to roll...

[Ikester]

There was a study done by a meteorologist at HGX a few years ago who found that gulf storms who miss their forecast targets miss to the RIGHT almost 70% of the time. Keep that in mind.

Are you hinting at a possibility of Galveston?

No. My personal opinion is if this jets west, I would favor somewhere south of Corpus. A storm just isn't going to plow into a ridge to the likes of the one being forecast over Texas. But my opinion can and probably will change. That's just what I see right now.

[Air Force Met]

Yea, they can always change their cone, but do it two quickly and you can loose credibility in the public eye.
I don't know, but what they did certainly wasn't playing it safe for the first advisory.

How do they change the cone?

Re-word your sentence. They can change the track. They can't change the cone. The cone is the cone is the cone. It's a statistical 2/3rds error circle for a given forecast point.

I say this because I still see...on every storm...people say "I can't wait to see how big the cone is on this thing" and it drives me crazy.

The cone only changes when the track does.

[Tireman4]

Wonder what will happen if this storm goes east what will everyone say

To quote Wxman57, the GFS is either the greatest model ever or something is wrong with it. I suppose folks would say the GFS is the greatest model ever. LOL

[Dave]

[Jevo]

18Z GFS Initialized .. Will have the rest in 12hr intervals as they roll in